Tuesday, August 25, 2009

College Football Predictions: Big Ten ( + Notre Dame)

What ever happened to all those "Fire Joe Paterno" Web sites?

Go ahead and Google them. They're getting harder and harder to find. Heck, FireJoePaterno.com doesn't even exist anymore.

It was just a few short years ago when the anti-JoePa crowd had a lot of people on their side. After all, Penn State football had hit rock bottom, finishing with five wins or less four times in five seasons.

Paterno appeared to have lost his touch, and the Nittany Lions had clearly lost their swagger.

But then, something funny happened. Penn State started winning again.

And by "winning," I mean a record of 40-11 in their past four seasons, four consecutive bowl berths and a Big Ten title in 2008.

Fire Joe Paterno? Oops.

In 2009, JoePa and his team will look to build on the recent success and get back to (at least) a second consecutive Rose Bowl. And with a cushy non-conference schedule, don't be surprised if National Championship talk starts brewing around the Nittany Lions in early October.

But there is another pretty good program in the Big Ten, too. And you better believe Jim Tressel and the Ohio State Buckeyes will do everything they can to reassert themselves as the league's standard-bearer.

Meanwhile, teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois will look to move from sleeper to contender. And programs including Michigan and Wisconsin will attempt to bring back their glory days.

But, at Penn State, the glory days are here and now as Paterno has perhaps his best shot at a BCS title yet in 2009.

Just don't bring that up with the "Fire JoePa" crowd. They probably don't want to hear it.


Big Ten:

Player of the Year: Evan Royster (RB - PSU)

Offensive Player of the Year: Juice Williams (QB - Ill)

Defensive Player of the Year: Navorro Bowman (LB - PSU)


1. Penn State - Hear me out, Buckeye fan. Yes, I know that the Nittany Lions lose their entire secondary and receiving corps. I know that they disappointed in the Rose Bowl against USC. I know that Ohio State is still the "top dog" of the Conference in most (if not all) respects.

But I believe Penn State will win this conference for two reasons: the rush offense and the rush defense. The Nittany Lions return stud RB Evan Royster to the Big Ten's 2nd-ranked rush unit and have LB Navorro Bowman to anchor last season's top-ranked rush defense. Oh, and Ohio State comes to University Park this year.

Overall: 11-1, Conference: 7-1

2. Ohio State - It's not like Penn State doesn't have holes. They certainly do. But so do the Buckeyes. Losing players like RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, LB James Laurinaitis and CB Malcolm Jenkins hurts - even at a program like Ohio State.

And while everyone seems ready to crown QB Terrelle Pryor the second-coming of Vince Young, I'm still not sold on a guy who ranked dead last in the Big Ten in pass yards per game last season. He's a running QB, I know, but even Young had to throw it every now and then.

Ohio State will no doubt be among the nation's top 10 teams at the end of the season, but the Buckeyes are a year away from competing for a title.

10-2 (7-1)

3. Iowa - Was anyone else surprised by Iowa's decision to hand Kirk Ferentz a seven-year, $21-million dollar contract extension this spring? Wasn't it just a year ago when it looked like his job was in jeopardy?

That extension shows you just how excited people are in Iowa City heading into the 2009 season. The Hawkeyes surprised in 2008, winning their last four games en route to a 9-4 season and a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten. Now Iowa, which lost its four games in 2008 by a combined total of 12 points, has a slew of veterans returning.

A stacked offensive line should aid RB Jewel Hampton in replacing 1,800-yard rusher Shonn Greene. And the Hawkeyes' defense, which quietly led the Big Ten in yards allowed last season, may be even better in '09. At this rate, Ferentz will be getting a 17-year deal in 2010.

10-2 (6-2)

4. Michigan State - Is there a new football power rising in the state of Michigan? Has the Maize and Blue been replaced by the Green and White? The answer is no... not yet. But there's no question the Spartans will once again be much better than their in-state rival in 2009. The question is how good, compared to the best of the Big Ten, will the Spartans be?

There is plenty of talent, particularly on defense with the return of LB Greg Jones and DE Trevor Anderson. But Dantonio loses workhorse RB Javon Ringer to the NFL and replaces QB Brian Hoyer with unproven sophomore Kirk Cousins (if he wins the job).

The Big Ten title talk will have to wait. But at least Spartan fans can still gloat over Wolverine fans.

10-2 (6-2)

5. Illinois - Okay, Ron Zook. Here's your shot to prove to everyone that you're more than just a good recruiter. You get one of the league's best QB's back in senior Juice Williams, one of the top receiving corps in the country and an experienced offensive line.

If Illinois doesn't live up to expectations this year, Zook may just be looking elsewhere for a job. Finishing 5-7 with losses to Western Michigan and Minnesota was a big disappointment in 2008. But the pieces are in place to at least flip that record in 2009.

8-4 (5-3)

6. Northwestern - Do you realize this team won nine games in 2008? Do you realize the Wildcats defense ranked fourth in the Big Ten last season, allowing just over 20 points per game? Do you realize the program has won six games or better four of the past five seasons?

Northwestern may just be the best little football program in America no one is talking about. Pat Fitzgerald gets most of his starters back on what should be another very strong defense. The running game should be fine, but we'll have to wait and see what the 'Cats get out of QB Mike Kafka.

8-4 (4-4)

7. Wisconsin - Yikes. 7-6 just doesn't look right next to "Wisconsin Badgers." But that's exactly what Bret Bielema got last season. And it could have been worse - the Badgers barely squeaked out wins over Fresno State and Minnesota.

What's strange is that, statistically, Wisconsin was pretty good last year. The one big thing missing was consistent QB play from Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer. Sherer is back, but he's facing stiff competition from freshman Curt Phillips.

Was 2008 a fluke or a sign of things to come? Bielema better hope for the former.

7-5 (4-4)

8. Minnesota - Um, did I miss the memo here? Why is everyone so in love with Minnesota this season? Is it the new stadium?

Yeah, they won seven games in 2008, but they lost their final five - including blowouts against Michigan, Iowa and Kansas in the Insight Bowl. The Gophers' early season success was impressive, but it's not like they were beating Top 25 teams.

Minnesota will have plenty of buzz this season with that shiny new outdoor stadium, and they do return QB Adam Weber (4th in Big Ten passing last season) and WR Erick Decker (1st in receiving). But for some reason I'm just not loving a team that comes in riding a five-game losing streak.

Yes, I know about the stadium.

5-7 (2-6)

9. Michigan - No, not yet Wolverine fans. Rich Rodriguez, I believe, will get this program back on the right track eventually, but it's going to take more time. Or do you think a team that won jut three games in 2008 is suddenly going to play like Charles Woodson is back in the (Big) house?

Sorry, that's not happening, especially with trips to Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin on the schedule. And now it sounds like Tate Forcier has struggled to assert himself in the QB race. That's not good news for a team that scored only 243 points total last season.

5-7 (2-6)

10. Purdue - I can't wait to see all of the "Hope" and "Change" signs that get busted out at Ross-Ade Stadium this year. New coach Danny Hope may not be Barack Obama, but he does have a couple things in common: high expectations and a lot of question marks.

The QB situation remains unresolved, as both redshirt freshman Caleb TerBush and sophomore Ralph Bolden have shots at the job. And Purdue has to correct a defense that ranked 2nd in the Big Ten against the pass but last against the run.

But, as Obama once said, in America, there is nothing false about Hope. Get out the sharpies.

3-9 (1-7)

11. Indiana - After the bowl appearance in 2007, Hoosier fans had high hopes in 2008, only to see their team fall to a 3-9 record. Worse yet, Indiana was blown out in just about every Big Ten game. They only had one win over an FBS opponent last season (Northwestern).

This year could be rough again, though the Hoosiers do have one of the league's best defensive lines headlined by senior DE Jammie Kirlew. It's tough to find many wins on the schedule.

2-10 (0-8)


Notre Dame - Yes, I am aware that Notre Dame does not play its football in the Big Ten. And for the Big Ten's sake, that might be a good thing. This team is good. QB Jimmy Clausen now has experience to go along with the talent he has flahsed through two seasons. And Clausen gets one of the nation's best receivers in Golden Tate to throw to, as well as a veteran offensive line that returns four starters. The defense, which moves to a 4-3 this season, has a chance to be special this year after allowing 30+ points only twice last season (Boston College and USC). Get ready for the media love affair: Notre Dame is back.

10-2

No comments: