Tuesday, August 11, 2009

College Football Predictions: Big 12

Sure, the SEC may be the best football conference in the country. True, they've got the defending national champs, a slew of Top 25 teams and countless rivalries. Oh, and that Tim Tebow fellow, too.

But if you want drama in 2009, there's only one place to look: the Big 12.

Fans in Austin are still seething after Texas lost out on a tie-breaker to rival Oklahoma in 2008, allowing the Sooners to march on to the Big 12 title game and, eventually, the BCS Championship game.

All of this despite the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma in the regular season.

And to make matters worse, OU QB Sam Bradford won the Heisman. Texas' Colt McCoy finished second.

Oh, and there was that whole incident with the plane flying over the campus in Austin calling on Texas coach Mack Brown to "Quit whining."

Now it appears that Texas and Oklahoma will once again battle for Big 12 supremacy. And whoever wins this year should have the inside track to play for a BCS title.

And if that isn't reason enough to watch the Big 12 in '09, there's also the fact that the league's offenses averaged over 35 points per game last season. Bradford and McCoy are just the start of what may be college football's best collection of QB's. And I dare you to find a more quotable list of coaches than Mike Leach, Mike Gundy and Dan Hawkins.

It all sets up for one high-scoring, tirade-flying, bad blood-settling season.

This is going to be good...


Big 12:

Player of the Year: Colt McCoy, QB (Tex)
Offensive POY: Kendall Hunter, RB (OSU)
Defensive POY: Ndamukong Suh, DT (Neb)

Big 12 Championship: Texas over Kansas

North:

1. Kansas - You gotta give Mark Mangino's team some credit. While trying to prove their brilliant 12-1 season in 2007, the Jayhawks could have easily given up hope when they fell to 6-5 overall and 3-4 in conference following a 35-7 drubbing by Texas on Nov. 15, 2009. Instead they defeated rival Missouri two weeks later and crushed Minnesota in the Insight Bowl to finish 4-4 in the Big 12 and 8-5 overall. This year, the 'Hawks are once again the class of the Big 12 North and have a much easier schedule to navigate. If they can win on Halloween at Texas Tech, 10 wins is a real possibility.

Overall: 9-3, Conference: 5-3

2. Nebraska - Bo Pelini's first year in Lincoln went aboust as well as even the most crazed Husker fan could have expected (and there are some really crazed Husker fans out there). Nine wins, including a Gator Bowl victory over Clemson, was impressive. Perhaps the most impressive - and significant - part of the turnaround was the improvement on defense. The Huskers allowed 28.5 points per game in 2008 which, in the Big 12, is a solid number. Look for continued improvement with Sr. DT Ndamukong Suh and Jr. DE Pierre Allen. The season will likely hinge on the performance of Jr. QB Zac Lee, who takes over for Joe Ganz.

7-5 (4-4)

3. Missouri - Long gone are the days of Chase Daniel playing catch up-and-down the field with Jeremy Maclin. Those two graduated after a somewhat disappointing 2008 season in which a 5-0 start turned into a 10-4 finish. This season the team may actually be carried by...the defense?? Yep, it's true - especially with the return of LB Sean Weatherspoon, who just might be the best LB in the Big 12. But the offensive talent will be sorely missed.

6-6 (4-4)

4. Colorado - Everyone's talking about coach Dan Hawkins' gutsy December prediction that the Buffs would have 10 wins in 2009. But there hasn't been a lot of talk about where, exactly, those 10 wins will come. Colorado travels to West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma State. Even if they could find a win in one of those three contests, they still have to welcome Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska to Boulder. Sorry, Hawk, but this is Division-I football. It's the Big 12.

6-6 (3-5)

5. Kansas State - I really, really want to believe that Bill Snyder can once again work his magic in Manhattan. But things are different now than they were when he took over the flailing program in 1989. There are high expectations - ones that Snyder himself helped establish. At least he has the benefit of 15 returning starters from 2008. But the Wildcats must improve a defense that allowed nearly 36 points per game last season.

5-7 (2-6)

6. Iowa State - Apparently, all you have to do to land a major coaching job in college football these days is win five games in two years and close out your final year with a strong 10-game losing streak. That's exactly what Gene Chizik did at Iowa State before Auburn hired him in December. Now the Cyclones find themselves with new coach Paul Rhoads and a whole lot of questions marks. At least Rhoads knows the bar isn't set too high.

4-8 (1-7)

South:

1. Texas - Think the Longhorns might have a thing or two to play for this season? McCoy will lead one of the most potent offenses in the country that returns eight starters. The defensive unit will certainly miss defensive lineman Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller, but LB Sergio Kindle and DT Lamarr Houston will still make life difficult for opposing offenses. The question, of course, is whether the Longhorns can survive the '09 season unscathed to reach a BCS title game. All eyes will (obviously) be on the Red River Rivalry in Dallas Oct. 17, but don't overlook about the 'Horns Halloween trip to Oklahoma State, either.

11-1 (7-1)

2. Oklahoma - Sam Bradford's stat line in 2008 reads like something out of a video game: 4,720 yards passing, 50 TD's, 8 INT's. I know some video game nerds who would kill to put up some virtual numbers like that. Whether Bradford puts up similar numbers or not this year will likely depend on whether an offensive line that lost four of five starters can reload in '09. Bradford will still have plenty of weapons, including Jr. RB Demarco Murray and Sr. TE Jermaine Gresham. Of course, no individual (or team) statistics will matter. What matters to Bob Stoops and Co. is a shot at redemption after January's loss to Florida. Only a BCS title will do in Norman.

11-1 (7-1)

3. Oklahoma State - This offense is good. The Cowboys averaged 40.8 points and 245.5 rush yards per game in 2008. The skillset trio of QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant may be the best in the nation. The problem, of course, is that the OSU defense couldn't stop opposing offenses when it needed to in '08, allowing 40-plus points in losses to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oregon. But there is hope that those numbers will go down this season, with the linebacking trio of Andre Sexton, Patrick Lavine and Orie Lemon all returning. As for the offense, expect the numbers to go nowhere but up.

10-2 (6-2)

4. Baylor - Okay, calm down. Take a breath. Yes, i'm picking Baylor fourth in the Big 12 South this season. Yes, that reads "8-4" below. Here's why: So. QB Robert Griffin is quite possibly the most athletic QB in the Big 12. The Bears rush defense, led by 2008 Big 12 tackles leader Joe Paweleck, should improve on last season when it ranked 7th in the Big 12. And the Bears have a budding star in Jr. RB Jay Finley. Plus, if the Bears can pull off a road upset in their opener at Wake Forest, they could start the season 4-0. If you're looking for a sleeper, here's a keeper.

8-4 (4-4)

5. Texas Tech - The Big Wigs at Tech were wise to finally sign Mike Leach to a multi-year coaching contract in the winter. Leach has gone 65-37 in nine years in Lubbock and has the program squarely on the rise. But 2009 will be a test, as the squad must replace departed stars in QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. Jr. QB Taylor Potts and Sr. WR Edward Britton will attempt to fill those shoes. With Leach still drawing up the plays, the task seems a bit more manageable.

7-5 (3-5)

6. Texas A&M - Mike Sherman sloughed through a rough 2008 campaign, but he did so with a ton of young, inexperienced players. That experience should pay off a bit in 2009, when the Aggies return ... starters, including Jr. QB Jerrod Johnson, So. WR Jeff Fuller and Jr. DE Von Miller. The Aggies may still be a year or so away, but at least there's reason for hope.

4-8 (1-7)

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