Welcome to the Age of Parity in college football.
This is the era that will be written about years from now as the time when college football transformed from a top-heavy, dynasty-laden sport to one in which upsets rule and anybody really can beat anybody.
Remember the days when you could pencil in most of the top 25 for wins against any non-ranked opponent?
Remember the days when the athletes at big-time conferences were just too big and too physical for smaller schools to compete with?
Remember the days when you’d never even heard of Appalachian State?
Well those days are long gone, my friend. The new era of topsy-turvy, BCS-busting football has arrived.
For better or worse, we can no longer guarantee wins for top-flight teams against bottom-feeders – even within conferences. Take the SEC, for example. While the top teams (Florida, LSU) still dominate, have you noticed the strides made by once-defunct programs like Ole Miss and Vanderbilt?
Even FBS (formerly Division I) teams are in danger when playing FCS (formerly Division II) teams, these days. In the first two weeks of the 2009 season, four FBS teams have fallen to FCS opponents.
And the powerful BCS is looking less and less dominant, too. Last weekend alone, six BCS conference teams (Colorado, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Virginia, Washington State, Kansas State ) were upended by teams from non-BCS leagues (Toledo, Central Michigan, Houston, TCU, Hawaii, Louisiana-Lafayette, respectively).
And this, of course, was just a building block on top of what happened the previous weekend, when Boise State beat Pac-10 favorite Oregon and BYU stunned 3rd-ranked Oklahoma.
So, now that we’re all getting accustomed to such shock and awe on a weekly basis, there’s only one logical question: which teams will be victims of parity this week?
Could it be 8th-ranked Cal traveling to take on 2-0 Minnesota? Could it be 24th-ranked North Carolina, facing feisty Eastern Carolina at Chapel Hill? Could Toledo back up a dominant win over Colorado with a stunner over the Buckeyes?
And could Lane Kiffin’s young Tennessee Volunteers ride the upset wave and shock college football with a win in Gainesville over the Florida Gators?
Okay… maybe there’s not that much parity. But you get the point.
To week three we go…
Looking back (My Week Two Picks):
Overall: 8/13 (18/29 on the season)
Top Five: 3/5 (5/10 on the season)
Upset Special (UNLV over Oregon State): 0/1 (1/2 on the season)
Top five games to watch this weekend:
5. #3 USC at Washington (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Really? This game is a top five game to watch this weekend? Here’s why: USC is coming off an emotional, physical win over Ohio State last weekend, and a letdown seems likely. Secondly, the Trojans have been susceptible to losing to mediocre Pac-10 teams in recent years. And finally, don’t you think Steve Sarkisian, who came to Washington following eight years on the USC sidelines, would love to be the one to upend his former team’s title hopes?
No, I’m not saying the Huskies will win. I’m just saying it might be a lot closer than Vegas odds makers say it will. Keep an eye on this one.
Prediction: USC 38, Washington 27
4. Texas Tech at #2 Texas (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
You want points? This is your game to watch this weekend. Texas Tech averaged 44.6 points per game last season, fourth best in the nation. The Longhorns weren’t too bad either, averaging 43.9 points, just one spot below the Red Raiders in the national rankings.
Oh, and this one has a little bit of a storyline, too. Texas Tech (and Michael Crabtree’s legendary touchdown catch) was all that stood in the way of the Longhorns playing for a Big 12 and, potentially, national title last season. Colt and Co. want revenge.
Prediction: Texas 41, Texas Tech 24
3. Tennessee at #1 Florida (Sat. 3:30 EST, CBS):
Lane Kiffin, I feel bad for you. You provoked a sleeping giant with comments in the off-season, promising Vols fans a win over the mighty Gators. Then you accused Florida coach Urban Meyer of cheating on recruiting, though Meyer was later cleared of all wrongdoing. And now your young team, fresh off a home loss to UCLA, travels to Gainesville to take on arguably one of the best college football teams in history.
Let’s be clear: this one isn’t a game to watch because it will be close. Frankly, I’ll take Temple’s chances to beat Penn State at Happy Valley over the Vols’ chances in Gainesville. But this one will be fun to watch to see just how badly Meyer and his Gators run up the scoreboard on Kiffin. 50 points? 60? 70?
Prediction: Florida 58, Tennessee 16
2.# 14 Georgia Tech at #20 Miami (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
This week’s Thursday night match-up promises to be a dandy. Georgia Tech, which needed a late field goal to get past Clemson at home last week, lays its ACC title hopes on the line against a surprising Miami team, which got a week off following an impressive win over Florida State week one.
Miami has lost four consecutive games to Georgia Tech, and last year’s 41-23 loss in Atlanta was really never close. But this may be a new Miami team. If QB Jacory Harris plays as well as he did against the Seminoles, the Hurricanes absolutely can win this game.
Prediction: Miami 27, Georgia Tech 24
1. #19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
This game intrigues me for a lot of reasons. First, Virginia Tech is in need of an impressive win over a ranked opponent after an opening week loss to Alabama. Secondly, this game should show us just how good a 2-0 Nebraska team (whose wins are over Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State) really is.
Lastly, do you remember this game a season ago? The Huskers mounted a huge comeback late to make the game very interesting in Lincoln. This is a confident Nebraska team looking for its signature win. If the Hokies aren't careful, Saturday night may prove to be just that.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Nebraska 21
Upset Special:
Northwestern at Syracuse (Sat. 7:00 EST):
Hey, give the Orange some credit. Syracuse has opened its first season under new coach … with competitive losses against Minnesota (23-20 in OT) and Penn State (28-7 in Happy Valley). I know, only at Syracuse would anything called “competitive losses” be seen as a great thing. But the moral of the story is that the Orange is playing surprisingly well so far this year, and the squad is hungry (more like starving) for a win. Meanwhile, Northwestern comes off a less-than-stellar home win over Eastern Michigan. Hey, the Orange have to get a win sometime, right?
Prediction: Syracuse 20, Northwestern 19
For your viewing pleasure:
10 Boise State at Fresno State (Fri. 9:00 EST, ESPN): Boise State 30, Fresno State 23
8 California at Minnesota (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Cal 28, Minnesota 21
East Carolina at 24 North Carolina (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): North Carolina 26, ECU 14
Michigan State at Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 20
Tulsa at 12 Oklahoma (Sat. 3:30 EST, FSN): Oklahoma 35, Tulsa 24
18 Utah at Oregon (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Oregon 33, Utah 30
Arizona at Iowa (Sat. 3:35 EST, ABC): Iowa 21, Arizona 10
17 Cincinnati at Oregon State (Sat. 6:45 EST, FSN): Oregon State 31, Cincinnati 21
West Virginia at Auburn (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN2): Auburn 34, West Virginia 26
23 Georgia at Arkansas (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN): Georgia 27, Arkansas 22
Heisman Hunt:
Tim Tebow (QB – Florida)
Maybe this is a little too obvious, but the Gators are going to put up some serious points Saturday against Tennessee (3:30 EST, CBS). And if you haven’t noticed, Tebow is kind of one of the Gators’ star players. The Heisman contender is due a big breakout game, and he will have no more motivation to grind a team into the ground than this weekend in Gainesville. Look out, Lane Kiffin.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
College Football Weekend: Preview and Predictions (Week Two)
Well, College Football's 2009 season really started with a real punch.
I mean, a bang. Started with a bang.
The offseason was filled with so much hype for the coming college football season it seemed impossible that week one could actually live up to it. But, amazingly enough, it did.
From Boise State's upset on the blue turf to "The Punch" to Dez Bryant's ridiculous cathches to BYU's historic victory to Sam Bradford's shoulder to two blocked field goals in the final seconds of a game in Iowa... the 2009 campaign got off to a pretty fast start.
So, we should be all psyched up for week two, right? Another weekend jam-packed with hard-hitting rivalries, potential upsets and brewing rivalries?
Um...not so much.
Week two appears, on paper anyways, to be a bit of a letdown after the fireworks of opening weeeknd. Only one game pits two Top 25 opponents - USC vs. Ohio State. And while this battle in Columbus has been built up as one of the biggest games of the 2009 season, I'm not biting.
That's because I can clearly remember the beat-down USC laid on the Buckeyes just a season ago in Los Angeles. Sure, the Trojans may not be quite the team they were at this point in 2008, but the Buckeyes don't look like they've improved much themselves (especially after Saturday's scare against Navy).
But, rest assured college football fanatics, perhaps the greatest asset about this sport is its unpredictability. And there are plenty of games on the slate that could end up being season-altering moments.
So, while you get all fired up for what likely will be a two touchdown-plus USC win in Columbus Saturday night, keep a close eye on games like Notre Dame-Michigan, UCLA-Tennessee, South Carolina-Georgia, and Oregon State-UNLV, just to name a few.
Because, as we learned in week one, in college football, surprises can hit you like a punch to the head.
I mean punch to the gut.
Looking Back (How My Week One Picks Looked):
Overall: 10/16
Upset Special: 1/1 (Baylor over Wake Forest)
Five Games You Can't Miss this Weekend
5. Clemson at #15 Georgia Tech (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
Could the ACC have had a worse opening weekend? Virginia Tech loses the blockbuster matchup against Alabama. NC State lays an egg on opening night against South Carolina. Then Duke and Virginia go and lose to schools the size of some community colleges. Monday night's fantastic Florida State-Miami duel made up a bit for the awful weekend that preceded it, but it was still a rough, rough start.
Clemson and Georgia Tech now take the spotlight this week. This game could go a long way in determing the eventual conference champ. Look for Georgia Tech's rush offense to be a bit much for the Tigers' defense to handle.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 30, Clemson 17
4. South Carolina at #21 Georgia (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN2):
Lost in all the "Punch-gate" talk following Thursday night's games was the fact that South Carolina went into Raleigh and dominated a pretty good (or at least what we thought was a pretty good) N.C. State team. But Steve Spurrier's team still has some issues, they only put up 7 points after all, and they will get an even bigger bellweather test this weekend against Georgia.
The Bulldogs will be angry after last Saturday's loss at Oklahoma State. Can you imagine how upset they'd be if they dropped to 0-2 this weekend? The pressure is on.
Prediction: Georgia 26, South Carolina 14
3. UCLA at Tennessee (Sat. 4:00 EST, ESPN):
After UCLA took out full-page newspaper ads last summer featurning Rick Neuheisel announcing that the "football monopoly in L.A." was over, it seemed that there might never be a more brash (or unfounded) "hello" moment for a college football coach. Well, Rick Neuheisel, Lane Kiffin just made you look silly, didn't he?
Now the two coaches (loudly) attempting to get their programs back on top face off in what could be a season-defining game. UCLA may be the slightly better team on paper, but Tennessee is at home. And the Vols haven't forgot their loss at the Rose Bowl a year ago.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, UCLA 24
2. #18 Notre Dame at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Oooh, this one is just oozing with intrigue. Both Charlie Weis and Rich Rodriguez are sitting on seats that couldn't be any hotter, even after impressive opening week wins for both coach's squads. But, if anything, those wins raised expectations even more for this week.
If Notre Dame's defense plays the way it did last weekend against Nevada, the Wolverines will struggle mightily to move the ball on the Irish. Michigan's offense did look strong against Western Michigan last weekend, but that was Western Michigan. This is Notre Dame. In the Big House. With the coach's job on the line.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 23
1. #3 USC at #8 Ohio State (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
Yes, yes, this has to be the number one game to watch this weekend, if for no other reason than to see how badly the Trojans beat up on the Buckeyes. I know, Buckeye fan, I'm just a Big Ten hater and Navy is really that good and the Trojans are starting a true freshman at the Horseshoe. The fact of the matter is this: USC simply has better talent at almost every position on the field. Ohio State will keep this one close early, but it will be shades of 2008 by the end.
Prediction: USC 38, Ohio State 20
Upset Special
Oregon State at UNLV (Sat. 11:00 EST):
The Mountain West is slowly but surely putting a lot of pressure on the BCS big-wigs. After a BYU victory of Oklahoma last Saturday (and a dominant Colorado State win over Colorado), the conference has to be feeling pretty good about itself. Next up? A UNLV win over the Beavers of Oregon State. Call me crazy, but I think the Rebels are ready for their breakout from pretender to contender. UNLV went into Sun Devil stadium and beat a then-15th ranked Arizona State team early last season. This year, they get another Pac-10 contender at home.
Prediction: UNLV 34, Oregon State 30
For Your Viewing Pleasure
#19 North Carolina at Connecticut (Sat. Noon EST, ESPNU): North Carolina 27, UCONN 16
Central Michigan at Michigan State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): MSU 42, Cent. Mich. 21
Fresno State at Wisconsin (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Wisconsin 28, Fresno State 23
#9 BYU at Tulane (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2): BYU 45, Tulane 13
Vanderbilt at #11 LSU (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPNU): LSU 23, Vandy 10
Air Force at Minnesota (Sat. 7:00 EST, Big Ten Network): Air Force 30, Minnesota 27
Purdue at Oregon (Sat. 10:15 EST, FSN): Oregon 34, Purdue 14
Heisman Hunt
Max Hall (QB - BYU):
After leading the Cougars to week one's shocking upset of third-ranked Oklahoma, Hall gets his chance to break out statistically against the Green Wave (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2). Tulane allowed over 400 total yards against Tulsa in its opener. Think Hall might find a few holes in that defense?
I mean, a bang. Started with a bang.
The offseason was filled with so much hype for the coming college football season it seemed impossible that week one could actually live up to it. But, amazingly enough, it did.
From Boise State's upset on the blue turf to "The Punch" to Dez Bryant's ridiculous cathches to BYU's historic victory to Sam Bradford's shoulder to two blocked field goals in the final seconds of a game in Iowa... the 2009 campaign got off to a pretty fast start.
So, we should be all psyched up for week two, right? Another weekend jam-packed with hard-hitting rivalries, potential upsets and brewing rivalries?
Um...not so much.
Week two appears, on paper anyways, to be a bit of a letdown after the fireworks of opening weeeknd. Only one game pits two Top 25 opponents - USC vs. Ohio State. And while this battle in Columbus has been built up as one of the biggest games of the 2009 season, I'm not biting.
That's because I can clearly remember the beat-down USC laid on the Buckeyes just a season ago in Los Angeles. Sure, the Trojans may not be quite the team they were at this point in 2008, but the Buckeyes don't look like they've improved much themselves (especially after Saturday's scare against Navy).
But, rest assured college football fanatics, perhaps the greatest asset about this sport is its unpredictability. And there are plenty of games on the slate that could end up being season-altering moments.
So, while you get all fired up for what likely will be a two touchdown-plus USC win in Columbus Saturday night, keep a close eye on games like Notre Dame-Michigan, UCLA-Tennessee, South Carolina-Georgia, and Oregon State-UNLV, just to name a few.
Because, as we learned in week one, in college football, surprises can hit you like a punch to the head.
I mean punch to the gut.
Looking Back (How My Week One Picks Looked):
Overall: 10/16
Upset Special: 1/1 (Baylor over Wake Forest)
Five Games You Can't Miss this Weekend
5. Clemson at #15 Georgia Tech (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
Could the ACC have had a worse opening weekend? Virginia Tech loses the blockbuster matchup against Alabama. NC State lays an egg on opening night against South Carolina. Then Duke and Virginia go and lose to schools the size of some community colleges. Monday night's fantastic Florida State-Miami duel made up a bit for the awful weekend that preceded it, but it was still a rough, rough start.
Clemson and Georgia Tech now take the spotlight this week. This game could go a long way in determing the eventual conference champ. Look for Georgia Tech's rush offense to be a bit much for the Tigers' defense to handle.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 30, Clemson 17
4. South Carolina at #21 Georgia (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN2):
Lost in all the "Punch-gate" talk following Thursday night's games was the fact that South Carolina went into Raleigh and dominated a pretty good (or at least what we thought was a pretty good) N.C. State team. But Steve Spurrier's team still has some issues, they only put up 7 points after all, and they will get an even bigger bellweather test this weekend against Georgia.
The Bulldogs will be angry after last Saturday's loss at Oklahoma State. Can you imagine how upset they'd be if they dropped to 0-2 this weekend? The pressure is on.
Prediction: Georgia 26, South Carolina 14
3. UCLA at Tennessee (Sat. 4:00 EST, ESPN):
After UCLA took out full-page newspaper ads last summer featurning Rick Neuheisel announcing that the "football monopoly in L.A." was over, it seemed that there might never be a more brash (or unfounded) "hello" moment for a college football coach. Well, Rick Neuheisel, Lane Kiffin just made you look silly, didn't he?
Now the two coaches (loudly) attempting to get their programs back on top face off in what could be a season-defining game. UCLA may be the slightly better team on paper, but Tennessee is at home. And the Vols haven't forgot their loss at the Rose Bowl a year ago.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, UCLA 24
2. #18 Notre Dame at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Oooh, this one is just oozing with intrigue. Both Charlie Weis and Rich Rodriguez are sitting on seats that couldn't be any hotter, even after impressive opening week wins for both coach's squads. But, if anything, those wins raised expectations even more for this week.
If Notre Dame's defense plays the way it did last weekend against Nevada, the Wolverines will struggle mightily to move the ball on the Irish. Michigan's offense did look strong against Western Michigan last weekend, but that was Western Michigan. This is Notre Dame. In the Big House. With the coach's job on the line.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 23
1. #3 USC at #8 Ohio State (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
Yes, yes, this has to be the number one game to watch this weekend, if for no other reason than to see how badly the Trojans beat up on the Buckeyes. I know, Buckeye fan, I'm just a Big Ten hater and Navy is really that good and the Trojans are starting a true freshman at the Horseshoe. The fact of the matter is this: USC simply has better talent at almost every position on the field. Ohio State will keep this one close early, but it will be shades of 2008 by the end.
Prediction: USC 38, Ohio State 20
Upset Special
Oregon State at UNLV (Sat. 11:00 EST):
The Mountain West is slowly but surely putting a lot of pressure on the BCS big-wigs. After a BYU victory of Oklahoma last Saturday (and a dominant Colorado State win over Colorado), the conference has to be feeling pretty good about itself. Next up? A UNLV win over the Beavers of Oregon State. Call me crazy, but I think the Rebels are ready for their breakout from pretender to contender. UNLV went into Sun Devil stadium and beat a then-15th ranked Arizona State team early last season. This year, they get another Pac-10 contender at home.
Prediction: UNLV 34, Oregon State 30
For Your Viewing Pleasure
#19 North Carolina at Connecticut (Sat. Noon EST, ESPNU): North Carolina 27, UCONN 16
Central Michigan at Michigan State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): MSU 42, Cent. Mich. 21
Fresno State at Wisconsin (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Wisconsin 28, Fresno State 23
#9 BYU at Tulane (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2): BYU 45, Tulane 13
Vanderbilt at #11 LSU (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPNU): LSU 23, Vandy 10
Air Force at Minnesota (Sat. 7:00 EST, Big Ten Network): Air Force 30, Minnesota 27
Purdue at Oregon (Sat. 10:15 EST, FSN): Oregon 34, Purdue 14
Heisman Hunt
Max Hall (QB - BYU):
After leading the Cougars to week one's shocking upset of third-ranked Oklahoma, Hall gets his chance to break out statistically against the Green Wave (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2). Tulane allowed over 400 total yards against Tulsa in its opener. Think Hall might find a few holes in that defense?
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
College Football Weekend: Preview and Predictions (Week 1)
Go big or go home.
That might as well be the motto this weekend for a pair of non-BCS teams looking to make big statements against Top 25 opponents.
First, on Thursday night, 14th-ranked Boise State gets a shot at No. 16 Oregon in what likely will be the Broncos' biggest game of the season.
Then, on Saturday, No. 25 Brigham Young travels to Arlington to face No. 3 Oklahoma, the defending national runner-up.
Nothing like starting your season off with a bang, huh?
Boise State and BYU are among the nation's top threats to the BCS system in 2009. If either team wants to carry the banner for the anti-BCS crowd, they most likely have to win this weekend.
Five Games You Can't Miss This Weekend:
5. South Carolina at NC State (Thurs. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is a must-watch game for several reasons. Not only will the Wolfpack be looking for revenge after last seasons 34-0 drubbing at the hands of Steve Spurrier's squad, but this game will also go a long way in determining whether they can compete for an ACC title this year. Plus, this is the first nationally-televised game of the season, so you know you have to watch. Oh, and it's also the return of Erin Andrews to the sideline following Videogate.
4. #20 BYU at #3 Oklahoma (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is clearly a huge game for the Cougars, but it's a big one for the Sooners, too. Lose here, and OU will need an undefeated run through the loaded Big 12 just to have a shot at playing for the title a second straight year. Max Hall will present an early challenge for Bob Stoops' defensive unit that allowed 251.5 passing yards per game a season ago. This one may be a lot closer than you think.
3. #13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC)
There are few teams in the county receiving as much bandwagon-love as the Cowboys, who enter 2009 as the top sleeper pick in the loaded Big 12 South. But before Mike Gundy's boys get to the Big 12, they first need to worry about one of the power programs of the SEC. The Bulldogs lost star QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno to the NFL, but this team is still loaded with talent. If the Cowboys are for real, we'll know after this one.
2. #16 Oregon at #14 Boise State (Thurs. 10:15 EST, ESPN)
Why is this game (No. 16 vs. No. 14) ranked ahead of Georgia-OSU (No. 13 vs. No. 9)? Simple: this one has immediate BCS implications. Boise State "should" win every other game on its schedule this year. So, if they win Thursday night, look out, BCS-backers, the Broncos are your best bet to be this year's Utah. Oregon, meanwhile, wants to make up for last year's loss to the Broncos in Eugene, as well as send a statement to the rest of the country that they are a national title contender, too.
Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon 31
1. #5 Alabama at #7 Virginia Tech (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC)
Is there any doubt about this one? Rarely do we see a game with this many national implications this early in the season. Both of these teams expect big things in 2009, but both have unresolved issues. For the Tide, it's whether an offense that lost seven starters will respond effectively. Meanwhile, the Hokies have injuries galore at running back. Both of these teams have a chance to be great - BCS title great - in 2009. But for whoever loses Saturday night, that chance is most likely all but gone.
Upset Special of the Week:
Baylor at Wake Forest (Sat. 3:30 EST)
No, this isn't that big of an upset. The Deacons are only five-point favorites at home, after all. But this is a key game because I expect the Bears to beat Wake handily - I'm talking two touchdowns-plus handily. Baylor has all the pieces to have a breakout season, and this road win will be the Bears' coming-out party.
Prediction: Baylor 34, Wake Forest: 17
For Your Viewing Pleasure (Other Notable Televised Games):
Navy at #6 Ohio State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Ohio State 38, Navy 20
Minnesota at Syracuse (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): Minnesota 27, Syracuse 19
Nevada at #23 Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Notre Dame 27, Nevada 24
Western Michigan at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC): Michigan 24, Western Michigan 17
Missouri at Illinois (Sat. 3:40 EST, ESPN): Illinois 33, Missouri 31
Maryland at #12 California (10:00 EST, ESPN2): Cal 42, Maryland 16
#11 LSU at Washington (Sat. 10:30 EST, ESPN): LSU 38, Washington 17
Ole Miss at Memphis (Sun. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Ole Miss 30, Memphis 14
Cincinnati at Rutgers (Mon. 4:00 EST, ESPN): Rutgers 21, Cincinnati 7
Miami at #18 Florida State (Mon. 8:00 EST, ESPN): FSU 28, Miami 16
Heisman Hunt (Player Performance to Watch):
Jahvid Best (RB - Cal): Best will launch his Heisman candidacy Saturday (10:00 EST, ESPN2) against a Maryland team that ranked 71st in the country last season against the run. Best was held to just 90 total yards in last season's 35-27 loss at Maryland. Both the Bears and Best will be looking for revenge this weekend.
Enjoy opening weekend, college football fans...
That might as well be the motto this weekend for a pair of non-BCS teams looking to make big statements against Top 25 opponents.
First, on Thursday night, 14th-ranked Boise State gets a shot at No. 16 Oregon in what likely will be the Broncos' biggest game of the season.
Then, on Saturday, No. 25 Brigham Young travels to Arlington to face No. 3 Oklahoma, the defending national runner-up.
Nothing like starting your season off with a bang, huh?
Boise State and BYU are among the nation's top threats to the BCS system in 2009. If either team wants to carry the banner for the anti-BCS crowd, they most likely have to win this weekend.
The Broncos don't face another team likely to be ranked the rest of the season, meaning one loss (even against a quality Oregon team) would derail any BCS thoughts.
And the Cougars, though they face fellow BCS-busters TCU and Utah, would need to run the table in impressive fashion to convince voters to put an 11-1 non-BCS team in position for a BCS bowl.
So, what happens if Boise State and BYU lose this weekend? Well, to put it mildly, the fans of BCS schools nationwide (not to mention their BCS league commissioners) will point their fingers and say "See, we knew they couldn't compete with the big boys."
But if one (or both) wins... look out. Both teams have legitimate shots to run the table the rest of the way and qualify for one of college football's biggest bowls. Factor in possible runs by TCU and Utah (and maybe Nevada), and you could have yourself a college football season of madness.
For the Broncos and the Cougars, their greatest tests come on opening weekend. By Saturday night, we will know whether either team can be this year's mid-major darling or whether they will be relegated to competing for a conference crown and a mid-level bowl.
No pressure or anything.
Five Games You Can't Miss This Weekend:
5. South Carolina at NC State (Thurs. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is a must-watch game for several reasons. Not only will the Wolfpack be looking for revenge after last seasons 34-0 drubbing at the hands of Steve Spurrier's squad, but this game will also go a long way in determining whether they can compete for an ACC title this year. Plus, this is the first nationally-televised game of the season, so you know you have to watch. Oh, and it's also the return of Erin Andrews to the sideline following Videogate.
Prediction: NC State 27, South Carolina 16
4. #20 BYU at #3 Oklahoma (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is clearly a huge game for the Cougars, but it's a big one for the Sooners, too. Lose here, and OU will need an undefeated run through the loaded Big 12 just to have a shot at playing for the title a second straight year. Max Hall will present an early challenge for Bob Stoops' defensive unit that allowed 251.5 passing yards per game a season ago. This one may be a lot closer than you think.
Prediction: Oklahoma 35, BYU 27
3. #13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC)
There are few teams in the county receiving as much bandwagon-love as the Cowboys, who enter 2009 as the top sleeper pick in the loaded Big 12 South. But before Mike Gundy's boys get to the Big 12, they first need to worry about one of the power programs of the SEC. The Bulldogs lost star QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno to the NFL, but this team is still loaded with talent. If the Cowboys are for real, we'll know after this one.
Prediction: OSU 37, Georgia 23
2. #16 Oregon at #14 Boise State (Thurs. 10:15 EST, ESPN)
Why is this game (No. 16 vs. No. 14) ranked ahead of Georgia-OSU (No. 13 vs. No. 9)? Simple: this one has immediate BCS implications. Boise State "should" win every other game on its schedule this year. So, if they win Thursday night, look out, BCS-backers, the Broncos are your best bet to be this year's Utah. Oregon, meanwhile, wants to make up for last year's loss to the Broncos in Eugene, as well as send a statement to the rest of the country that they are a national title contender, too.
Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon 31
1. #5 Alabama at #7 Virginia Tech (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC)
Is there any doubt about this one? Rarely do we see a game with this many national implications this early in the season. Both of these teams expect big things in 2009, but both have unresolved issues. For the Tide, it's whether an offense that lost seven starters will respond effectively. Meanwhile, the Hokies have injuries galore at running back. Both of these teams have a chance to be great - BCS title great - in 2009. But for whoever loses Saturday night, that chance is most likely all but gone.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Alabama 20
Upset Special of the Week:
Baylor at Wake Forest (Sat. 3:30 EST)
No, this isn't that big of an upset. The Deacons are only five-point favorites at home, after all. But this is a key game because I expect the Bears to beat Wake handily - I'm talking two touchdowns-plus handily. Baylor has all the pieces to have a breakout season, and this road win will be the Bears' coming-out party.
Prediction: Baylor 34, Wake Forest: 17
For Your Viewing Pleasure (Other Notable Televised Games):
Navy at #6 Ohio State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Ohio State 38, Navy 20
Minnesota at Syracuse (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): Minnesota 27, Syracuse 19
Nevada at #23 Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Notre Dame 27, Nevada 24
Western Michigan at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC): Michigan 24, Western Michigan 17
Missouri at Illinois (Sat. 3:40 EST, ESPN): Illinois 33, Missouri 31
Maryland at #12 California (10:00 EST, ESPN2): Cal 42, Maryland 16
#11 LSU at Washington (Sat. 10:30 EST, ESPN): LSU 38, Washington 17
Ole Miss at Memphis (Sun. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Ole Miss 30, Memphis 14
Cincinnati at Rutgers (Mon. 4:00 EST, ESPN): Rutgers 21, Cincinnati 7
Miami at #18 Florida State (Mon. 8:00 EST, ESPN): FSU 28, Miami 16
Heisman Hunt (Player Performance to Watch):
Jahvid Best (RB - Cal): Best will launch his Heisman candidacy Saturday (10:00 EST, ESPN2) against a Maryland team that ranked 71st in the country last season against the run. Best was held to just 90 total yards in last season's 35-27 loss at Maryland. Both the Bears and Best will be looking for revenge this weekend.
Enjoy opening weekend, college football fans...
Friday, August 28, 2009
College Football Predictions: SEC
I know you don't want to hear about the Florida Gators anymore.
I know you're sick of "Tim Tebow Saves the World" documentaries. I know you're going to roll your eyes and yawn when you see the predictions below.
And you know what? I don't blame you. I fell asleep a few times writing them. Seriously.
That's because the Gators have gotten more love recently from the national media than Brett Favre's facial hair, and that's saying something. With all of the "experts" predicting Florida dominance in 2009, you'd think the BCS had already Fed-Ex'd the trophy to Gainesville.
But... that's why they play the game, right? And if you think that's just an old cliche, you might want to check with the 1999 Tennessee Volunteers, the 2002 Miami Hurricanes, the 2003 Ohio State Buckeyes or the 2005 USC Trojans.
All of those teams were pegged as favorites to repeat as BCS champions. None of them did.
So what makes me (and every other non-Big 12 writer in America, apparently) think the Gators will become the first team to repeat as BCS champion?
No, it's not Tim Tebow. No, it's not Urban Meyer. No, it's not even a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
It's the schedule.
Sure, the SEC is brutal. And as the loss last season to Ole Miss can attest, even the mighty Gators are capable of a letdown.
But outside of a trip to LSU on Oct. 10, every game on the Gators' schedule is very, very winnable. Georgia is always tough, but the Gators crushed them 49-10 last year (and that was when the Bulldogs still had Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno).
And the two next-best teams in the Conference, Alabama and Ole Miss, aren't on the schedule at all.
If Florida wins against LSU, they should cruise into the SEC championship game. And there are plenty of reasons to believe they will take care of business there, as well as in an eventual BCS title game.
Reasons like: Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer and a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
But you already knew that, right?
SEC:
Player of the Year: Jevan Snead... No, no, just kidding. Tim Tebow (QB - Fla.)
Offensive Player of the Year: Jevan Snead (QB - Miss.) I'm serious this time.
Defensive Player of the Year: Eric Berry (DE - Tenn.)
East:
1. Florida - (Yawn) You've probably heard all about the Gators' strengths, so let's talk about the potential weaknesses Florida in '09. It starts with an offensive line that loses both tackles and a guard. Remember how Tebow got stuffed late in the loss to Ole Miss last season? Also, Florida loses star WR Percy Harvin. There's still plenty of talent at the position, but none are the play-maker Harvin was. Also, the Gators could have a bit of a dilemma with several defensive back-ups who may be pushing starters for playing time throughout the season. Do any of these things really matter? Probably not.
Overall: 12-0, Conference: 8-0
2. Georgia - The hype was so big for the Bulldogs heading into 2008, you almost had to feel a letdown coming. Sure enough, Mark Richt's squad lost three games and finished the season far removed from the national championship discussion. But, outside of the dismantling loss to Florida, the Dogs' losses were hardly bad (Alabama and Georgia Tech). In fact, if Stafford and Moreno would have returned, this team may have gotten some votes to top Florida in the SEC East. But instead, Joe Cox takes over behind center and Caleb King is expected to get most of the carries at RB (though a recent injury could change that). But the bigger question mark is a defense that allowed 30+ points on five occasions last season.
9-3 (6-2)
3. South Carolina - If only Steve Spurrier's team could finish. After losing its final five games in 2007 to miss the bowl season, South Carolina lost its last three in 2008, including a 31-10 defeat against Iowa in the Outback Bowl. The result has been pretty good seasons turned quickly into disappointments. The reality is, until Spurrier finds a solid QB, the Gamecocks are probably destine for mediocrity. Perhaps Stephen Garcia will eventually be that man, although six TD's and eight INT's in 2008 doesn't exactly scream Danny Wuerffel or anything...
6-6 (4-4)
4. Vanderbilt - Well that was fun while it lasted. The Commodores sprinted out of the gate in 2008, winning their first five games and earning a Top 25 ranking. After that, Vandy couldn't buy a win, losing five of six games by less than two TD's. The Commodores return 17 starters this season, and there is reason to believe they can turn at least a couple of those losses into wins. The season will likely hinge on QB play, as Larry Smith and Mackenzi Adams are expected to both get significant snaps. If they perform, Vandy is a sleeper.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Kentucky - Rich Brooks does have reasons for optimism heading into 2009. First, he returns nine offensive starters, including play-making WR Randall Cobb. Secondly, his defense, which ranked sixth in the SEC last season, allowing 22.4 points per game, returns LB Michah Johnson and CB Trevard Lindley. But questions still surround QB Mike Hartline, who simply has to put up more consistent passing numbers for the Wildcats to compete in this conference.
6-6 (2-6)
6. Tennessee - What? Tennesse got a new coach this offseason? Really? Must have missed that. I'm starting to wonder if maybe Al Davis wasn't the crazy (or craziest) one in the feud between himself and new Vols coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin spent the off-season making headlines for all the wrong reasons. He will spend the season wishing DB Eric Berry could play all 22 positions on the field. Because other than Berry, Tennessee is young, inexperienced and unproven. Kind of like their new coach.
6-6 (2-6)
11-1 (7-1)
2. Alabama - Nick Saban will undoubtedly have one of the nation's best defenses in 2009. Players like LB Rolondo McClain and DT Terrence Cody are going to be playing on Sunday in a year or two. But it's hard to forget what happened to the Tide's offensive line in the Sugar Bowl. Utah dominated the 'Bama line, making J.P. Wilson's night one to forget. Now that line loses three starters, and a new QB takes over in Greg McElroy. Could the defense be good enough alone to keep the Tide in the SEC title hunt? Yes. But, man, Utah just destroyed that line...
10-2 (7-1)
3. LSU - Mark your calendars for Oct. 10, boys and girls. That's when Florida comes to Baton Rouge. The Tigers, on paper anyway, have the best shot at derailing the Gators' run at an undefeated season in 2009. But we shouldn't forget the Gators' 30-point drubbing of LSU in Gainesville last season. So, have the Tigers improved enough to win that game, as well as more than the eight total they won in 2008? The answer is...maybe. There is a ton of talent on offense and in the linebacking corps, but only one starter returns to the defensive line. Oh, and there's that whole QB situation, too.
9-3 (5-3)
4. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ranked fourth in the SEC in offensive yards per game last season. They ranked last in yards allowed per game. That's going to be a problem. It may simply be a question of whether the Arkansas offense can score enough points to make the poor defense a non-issue. Sr. RB Michael Smith and All-SEC TE D.J. Williams will do their best, but can they get some help out there, D?
6-6 (2-6)
5. Auburn - Boy, I'd be pumped if I was a Tigers fan. Heck, you got rid of that lame coach Tommy Tuberville, who won just 85 games and an SEC title in his 10 years at Auburn, and replaced him with Gene Chizik, who won a whopping five games in two years at Iowa State! That's right, Iowa State: the Iowa of central Iowa! Okay, maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic, but I will never understand this coaching move. Unless, of course, the Tigers win the SEC West this year or something.
5-7 (1-7)
6. Mississippi State - As bad as the Chizik hire looks at Auburn is as good as the Dan Mullen hiring looks at Miss. St. The Bulldogs have to find some offense, and Mullen, who helped create Florida's scoring machine, is the right guy to take a shot at it. RB Anthony Dixon has shown promise, ranking fifth in rushing in the SEC last season. The defense should be decent, though it needs to improve against the run (74th in the country last season). It may take a few years, but expect Mullen to get this program headed in the right direction.
4-8 (1-7)
I know you're sick of "Tim Tebow Saves the World" documentaries. I know you're going to roll your eyes and yawn when you see the predictions below.
And you know what? I don't blame you. I fell asleep a few times writing them. Seriously.
That's because the Gators have gotten more love recently from the national media than Brett Favre's facial hair, and that's saying something. With all of the "experts" predicting Florida dominance in 2009, you'd think the BCS had already Fed-Ex'd the trophy to Gainesville.
But... that's why they play the game, right? And if you think that's just an old cliche, you might want to check with the 1999 Tennessee Volunteers, the 2002 Miami Hurricanes, the 2003 Ohio State Buckeyes or the 2005 USC Trojans.
All of those teams were pegged as favorites to repeat as BCS champions. None of them did.
So what makes me (and every other non-Big 12 writer in America, apparently) think the Gators will become the first team to repeat as BCS champion?
No, it's not Tim Tebow. No, it's not Urban Meyer. No, it's not even a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
It's the schedule.
Sure, the SEC is brutal. And as the loss last season to Ole Miss can attest, even the mighty Gators are capable of a letdown.
But outside of a trip to LSU on Oct. 10, every game on the Gators' schedule is very, very winnable. Georgia is always tough, but the Gators crushed them 49-10 last year (and that was when the Bulldogs still had Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno).
And the two next-best teams in the Conference, Alabama and Ole Miss, aren't on the schedule at all.
If Florida wins against LSU, they should cruise into the SEC championship game. And there are plenty of reasons to believe they will take care of business there, as well as in an eventual BCS title game.
Reasons like: Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer and a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
But you already knew that, right?
SEC:
Player of the Year: Jevan Snead... No, no, just kidding. Tim Tebow (QB - Fla.)
Offensive Player of the Year: Jevan Snead (QB - Miss.) I'm serious this time.
Defensive Player of the Year: Eric Berry (DE - Tenn.)
East:
1. Florida - (Yawn) You've probably heard all about the Gators' strengths, so let's talk about the potential weaknesses Florida in '09. It starts with an offensive line that loses both tackles and a guard. Remember how Tebow got stuffed late in the loss to Ole Miss last season? Also, Florida loses star WR Percy Harvin. There's still plenty of talent at the position, but none are the play-maker Harvin was. Also, the Gators could have a bit of a dilemma with several defensive back-ups who may be pushing starters for playing time throughout the season. Do any of these things really matter? Probably not.
Overall: 12-0, Conference: 8-0
2. Georgia - The hype was so big for the Bulldogs heading into 2008, you almost had to feel a letdown coming. Sure enough, Mark Richt's squad lost three games and finished the season far removed from the national championship discussion. But, outside of the dismantling loss to Florida, the Dogs' losses were hardly bad (Alabama and Georgia Tech). In fact, if Stafford and Moreno would have returned, this team may have gotten some votes to top Florida in the SEC East. But instead, Joe Cox takes over behind center and Caleb King is expected to get most of the carries at RB (though a recent injury could change that). But the bigger question mark is a defense that allowed 30+ points on five occasions last season.
9-3 (6-2)
3. South Carolina - If only Steve Spurrier's team could finish. After losing its final five games in 2007 to miss the bowl season, South Carolina lost its last three in 2008, including a 31-10 defeat against Iowa in the Outback Bowl. The result has been pretty good seasons turned quickly into disappointments. The reality is, until Spurrier finds a solid QB, the Gamecocks are probably destine for mediocrity. Perhaps Stephen Garcia will eventually be that man, although six TD's and eight INT's in 2008 doesn't exactly scream Danny Wuerffel or anything...
6-6 (4-4)
4. Vanderbilt - Well that was fun while it lasted. The Commodores sprinted out of the gate in 2008, winning their first five games and earning a Top 25 ranking. After that, Vandy couldn't buy a win, losing five of six games by less than two TD's. The Commodores return 17 starters this season, and there is reason to believe they can turn at least a couple of those losses into wins. The season will likely hinge on QB play, as Larry Smith and Mackenzi Adams are expected to both get significant snaps. If they perform, Vandy is a sleeper.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Kentucky - Rich Brooks does have reasons for optimism heading into 2009. First, he returns nine offensive starters, including play-making WR Randall Cobb. Secondly, his defense, which ranked sixth in the SEC last season, allowing 22.4 points per game, returns LB Michah Johnson and CB Trevard Lindley. But questions still surround QB Mike Hartline, who simply has to put up more consistent passing numbers for the Wildcats to compete in this conference.
6-6 (2-6)
6. Tennessee - What? Tennesse got a new coach this offseason? Really? Must have missed that. I'm starting to wonder if maybe Al Davis wasn't the crazy (or craziest) one in the feud between himself and new Vols coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin spent the off-season making headlines for all the wrong reasons. He will spend the season wishing DB Eric Berry could play all 22 positions on the field. Because other than Berry, Tennessee is young, inexperienced and unproven. Kind of like their new coach.
6-6 (2-6)
West:
1. Ole Miss - Yep, hand over the Kool Aid. I love the Rebels this year. Go ahead and call this pick "bandwagon-jumping" or "a giant Houston Nutt man-crush." The latter may be true, but tell me this: If I gave you a team that has its league's best (passing) QB, its fourth-ranked defense from a season ago, and told you this team was the only one to beat the national champion a year ago, would you say that team is pretty darn good? Sure you would. The Rebels lost all three SEC games last year by a total of just 17 points, and they got better as the season went on, winning their final six. Even if you want to throw out the Florida game as a fluke, beating Texas Tech 47-34 in the Cotton Bowl showed this team is for real. And the best part? The Rebels get both Alabama and LSU at home in '09.11-1 (7-1)
2. Alabama - Nick Saban will undoubtedly have one of the nation's best defenses in 2009. Players like LB Rolondo McClain and DT Terrence Cody are going to be playing on Sunday in a year or two. But it's hard to forget what happened to the Tide's offensive line in the Sugar Bowl. Utah dominated the 'Bama line, making J.P. Wilson's night one to forget. Now that line loses three starters, and a new QB takes over in Greg McElroy. Could the defense be good enough alone to keep the Tide in the SEC title hunt? Yes. But, man, Utah just destroyed that line...
10-2 (7-1)
3. LSU - Mark your calendars for Oct. 10, boys and girls. That's when Florida comes to Baton Rouge. The Tigers, on paper anyway, have the best shot at derailing the Gators' run at an undefeated season in 2009. But we shouldn't forget the Gators' 30-point drubbing of LSU in Gainesville last season. So, have the Tigers improved enough to win that game, as well as more than the eight total they won in 2008? The answer is...maybe. There is a ton of talent on offense and in the linebacking corps, but only one starter returns to the defensive line. Oh, and there's that whole QB situation, too.
9-3 (5-3)
4. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ranked fourth in the SEC in offensive yards per game last season. They ranked last in yards allowed per game. That's going to be a problem. It may simply be a question of whether the Arkansas offense can score enough points to make the poor defense a non-issue. Sr. RB Michael Smith and All-SEC TE D.J. Williams will do their best, but can they get some help out there, D?
6-6 (2-6)
5. Auburn - Boy, I'd be pumped if I was a Tigers fan. Heck, you got rid of that lame coach Tommy Tuberville, who won just 85 games and an SEC title in his 10 years at Auburn, and replaced him with Gene Chizik, who won a whopping five games in two years at Iowa State! That's right, Iowa State: the Iowa of central Iowa! Okay, maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic, but I will never understand this coaching move. Unless, of course, the Tigers win the SEC West this year or something.
5-7 (1-7)
6. Mississippi State - As bad as the Chizik hire looks at Auburn is as good as the Dan Mullen hiring looks at Miss. St. The Bulldogs have to find some offense, and Mullen, who helped create Florida's scoring machine, is the right guy to take a shot at it. RB Anthony Dixon has shown promise, ranking fifth in rushing in the SEC last season. The defense should be decent, though it needs to improve against the run (74th in the country last season). It may take a few years, but expect Mullen to get this program headed in the right direction.
4-8 (1-7)
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
College Football Predictions: Big Ten ( + Notre Dame)
What ever happened to all those "Fire Joe Paterno" Web sites?
Go ahead and Google them. They're getting harder and harder to find. Heck, FireJoePaterno.com doesn't even exist anymore.
It was just a few short years ago when the anti-JoePa crowd had a lot of people on their side. After all, Penn State football had hit rock bottom, finishing with five wins or less four times in five seasons.
Paterno appeared to have lost his touch, and the Nittany Lions had clearly lost their swagger.
But then, something funny happened. Penn State started winning again.
And by "winning," I mean a record of 40-11 in their past four seasons, four consecutive bowl berths and a Big Ten title in 2008.
Fire Joe Paterno? Oops.
In 2009, JoePa and his team will look to build on the recent success and get back to (at least) a second consecutive Rose Bowl. And with a cushy non-conference schedule, don't be surprised if National Championship talk starts brewing around the Nittany Lions in early October.
But there is another pretty good program in the Big Ten, too. And you better believe Jim Tressel and the Ohio State Buckeyes will do everything they can to reassert themselves as the league's standard-bearer.
Meanwhile, teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois will look to move from sleeper to contender. And programs including Michigan and Wisconsin will attempt to bring back their glory days.
But, at Penn State, the glory days are here and now as Paterno has perhaps his best shot at a BCS title yet in 2009.
Just don't bring that up with the "Fire JoePa" crowd. They probably don't want to hear it.
Big Ten:
Player of the Year: Evan Royster (RB - PSU)
Offensive Player of the Year: Juice Williams (QB - Ill)
Defensive Player of the Year: Navorro Bowman (LB - PSU)
1. Penn State - Hear me out, Buckeye fan. Yes, I know that the Nittany Lions lose their entire secondary and receiving corps. I know that they disappointed in the Rose Bowl against USC. I know that Ohio State is still the "top dog" of the Conference in most (if not all) respects.
But I believe Penn State will win this conference for two reasons: the rush offense and the rush defense. The Nittany Lions return stud RB Evan Royster to the Big Ten's 2nd-ranked rush unit and have LB Navorro Bowman to anchor last season's top-ranked rush defense. Oh, and Ohio State comes to University Park this year.
Overall: 11-1, Conference: 7-1
2. Ohio State - It's not like Penn State doesn't have holes. They certainly do. But so do the Buckeyes. Losing players like RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, LB James Laurinaitis and CB Malcolm Jenkins hurts - even at a program like Ohio State.
And while everyone seems ready to crown QB Terrelle Pryor the second-coming of Vince Young, I'm still not sold on a guy who ranked dead last in the Big Ten in pass yards per game last season. He's a running QB, I know, but even Young had to throw it every now and then.
Ohio State will no doubt be among the nation's top 10 teams at the end of the season, but the Buckeyes are a year away from competing for a title.
10-2 (7-1)
3. Iowa - Was anyone else surprised by Iowa's decision to hand Kirk Ferentz a seven-year, $21-million dollar contract extension this spring? Wasn't it just a year ago when it looked like his job was in jeopardy?
That extension shows you just how excited people are in Iowa City heading into the 2009 season. The Hawkeyes surprised in 2008, winning their last four games en route to a 9-4 season and a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten. Now Iowa, which lost its four games in 2008 by a combined total of 12 points, has a slew of veterans returning.
A stacked offensive line should aid RB Jewel Hampton in replacing 1,800-yard rusher Shonn Greene. And the Hawkeyes' defense, which quietly led the Big Ten in yards allowed last season, may be even better in '09. At this rate, Ferentz will be getting a 17-year deal in 2010.
10-2 (6-2)
4. Michigan State - Is there a new football power rising in the state of Michigan? Has the Maize and Blue been replaced by the Green and White? The answer is no... not yet. But there's no question the Spartans will once again be much better than their in-state rival in 2009. The question is how good, compared to the best of the Big Ten, will the Spartans be?
There is plenty of talent, particularly on defense with the return of LB Greg Jones and DE Trevor Anderson. But Dantonio loses workhorse RB Javon Ringer to the NFL and replaces QB Brian Hoyer with unproven sophomore Kirk Cousins (if he wins the job).
The Big Ten title talk will have to wait. But at least Spartan fans can still gloat over Wolverine fans.
10-2 (6-2)
5. Illinois - Okay, Ron Zook. Here's your shot to prove to everyone that you're more than just a good recruiter. You get one of the league's best QB's back in senior Juice Williams, one of the top receiving corps in the country and an experienced offensive line.
If Illinois doesn't live up to expectations this year, Zook may just be looking elsewhere for a job. Finishing 5-7 with losses to Western Michigan and Minnesota was a big disappointment in 2008. But the pieces are in place to at least flip that record in 2009.
8-4 (5-3)
6. Northwestern - Do you realize this team won nine games in 2008? Do you realize the Wildcats defense ranked fourth in the Big Ten last season, allowing just over 20 points per game? Do you realize the program has won six games or better four of the past five seasons?
Northwestern may just be the best little football program in America no one is talking about. Pat Fitzgerald gets most of his starters back on what should be another very strong defense. The running game should be fine, but we'll have to wait and see what the 'Cats get out of QB Mike Kafka.
8-4 (4-4)
7. Wisconsin - Yikes. 7-6 just doesn't look right next to "Wisconsin Badgers." But that's exactly what Bret Bielema got last season. And it could have been worse - the Badgers barely squeaked out wins over Fresno State and Minnesota.
What's strange is that, statistically, Wisconsin was pretty good last year. The one big thing missing was consistent QB play from Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer. Sherer is back, but he's facing stiff competition from freshman Curt Phillips.
Was 2008 a fluke or a sign of things to come? Bielema better hope for the former.
7-5 (4-4)
8. Minnesota - Um, did I miss the memo here? Why is everyone so in love with Minnesota this season? Is it the new stadium?
Yeah, they won seven games in 2008, but they lost their final five - including blowouts against Michigan, Iowa and Kansas in the Insight Bowl. The Gophers' early season success was impressive, but it's not like they were beating Top 25 teams.
Minnesota will have plenty of buzz this season with that shiny new outdoor stadium, and they do return QB Adam Weber (4th in Big Ten passing last season) and WR Erick Decker (1st in receiving). But for some reason I'm just not loving a team that comes in riding a five-game losing streak.
Yes, I know about the stadium.
5-7 (2-6)
9. Michigan - No, not yet Wolverine fans. Rich Rodriguez, I believe, will get this program back on the right track eventually, but it's going to take more time. Or do you think a team that won jut three games in 2008 is suddenly going to play like Charles Woodson is back in the (Big) house?
Sorry, that's not happening, especially with trips to Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin on the schedule. And now it sounds like Tate Forcier has struggled to assert himself in the QB race. That's not good news for a team that scored only 243 points total last season.
5-7 (2-6)
10. Purdue - I can't wait to see all of the "Hope" and "Change" signs that get busted out at Ross-Ade Stadium this year. New coach Danny Hope may not be Barack Obama, but he does have a couple things in common: high expectations and a lot of question marks.
The QB situation remains unresolved, as both redshirt freshman Caleb TerBush and sophomore Ralph Bolden have shots at the job. And Purdue has to correct a defense that ranked 2nd in the Big Ten against the pass but last against the run.
But, as Obama once said, in America, there is nothing false about Hope. Get out the sharpies.
3-9 (1-7)
11. Indiana - After the bowl appearance in 2007, Hoosier fans had high hopes in 2008, only to see their team fall to a 3-9 record. Worse yet, Indiana was blown out in just about every Big Ten game. They only had one win over an FBS opponent last season (Northwestern).
This year could be rough again, though the Hoosiers do have one of the league's best defensive lines headlined by senior DE Jammie Kirlew. It's tough to find many wins on the schedule.
2-10 (0-8)
Go ahead and Google them. They're getting harder and harder to find. Heck, FireJoePaterno.com doesn't even exist anymore.
It was just a few short years ago when the anti-JoePa crowd had a lot of people on their side. After all, Penn State football had hit rock bottom, finishing with five wins or less four times in five seasons.
Paterno appeared to have lost his touch, and the Nittany Lions had clearly lost their swagger.
But then, something funny happened. Penn State started winning again.
And by "winning," I mean a record of 40-11 in their past four seasons, four consecutive bowl berths and a Big Ten title in 2008.
Fire Joe Paterno? Oops.
In 2009, JoePa and his team will look to build on the recent success and get back to (at least) a second consecutive Rose Bowl. And with a cushy non-conference schedule, don't be surprised if National Championship talk starts brewing around the Nittany Lions in early October.
But there is another pretty good program in the Big Ten, too. And you better believe Jim Tressel and the Ohio State Buckeyes will do everything they can to reassert themselves as the league's standard-bearer.
Meanwhile, teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois will look to move from sleeper to contender. And programs including Michigan and Wisconsin will attempt to bring back their glory days.
But, at Penn State, the glory days are here and now as Paterno has perhaps his best shot at a BCS title yet in 2009.
Just don't bring that up with the "Fire JoePa" crowd. They probably don't want to hear it.
Big Ten:
Player of the Year: Evan Royster (RB - PSU)
Offensive Player of the Year: Juice Williams (QB - Ill)
Defensive Player of the Year: Navorro Bowman (LB - PSU)
1. Penn State - Hear me out, Buckeye fan. Yes, I know that the Nittany Lions lose their entire secondary and receiving corps. I know that they disappointed in the Rose Bowl against USC. I know that Ohio State is still the "top dog" of the Conference in most (if not all) respects.
But I believe Penn State will win this conference for two reasons: the rush offense and the rush defense. The Nittany Lions return stud RB Evan Royster to the Big Ten's 2nd-ranked rush unit and have LB Navorro Bowman to anchor last season's top-ranked rush defense. Oh, and Ohio State comes to University Park this year.
Overall: 11-1, Conference: 7-1
2. Ohio State - It's not like Penn State doesn't have holes. They certainly do. But so do the Buckeyes. Losing players like RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, LB James Laurinaitis and CB Malcolm Jenkins hurts - even at a program like Ohio State.
And while everyone seems ready to crown QB Terrelle Pryor the second-coming of Vince Young, I'm still not sold on a guy who ranked dead last in the Big Ten in pass yards per game last season. He's a running QB, I know, but even Young had to throw it every now and then.
Ohio State will no doubt be among the nation's top 10 teams at the end of the season, but the Buckeyes are a year away from competing for a title.
10-2 (7-1)
3. Iowa - Was anyone else surprised by Iowa's decision to hand Kirk Ferentz a seven-year, $21-million dollar contract extension this spring? Wasn't it just a year ago when it looked like his job was in jeopardy?
That extension shows you just how excited people are in Iowa City heading into the 2009 season. The Hawkeyes surprised in 2008, winning their last four games en route to a 9-4 season and a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten. Now Iowa, which lost its four games in 2008 by a combined total of 12 points, has a slew of veterans returning.
A stacked offensive line should aid RB Jewel Hampton in replacing 1,800-yard rusher Shonn Greene. And the Hawkeyes' defense, which quietly led the Big Ten in yards allowed last season, may be even better in '09. At this rate, Ferentz will be getting a 17-year deal in 2010.
10-2 (6-2)
4. Michigan State - Is there a new football power rising in the state of Michigan? Has the Maize and Blue been replaced by the Green and White? The answer is no... not yet. But there's no question the Spartans will once again be much better than their in-state rival in 2009. The question is how good, compared to the best of the Big Ten, will the Spartans be?
There is plenty of talent, particularly on defense with the return of LB Greg Jones and DE Trevor Anderson. But Dantonio loses workhorse RB Javon Ringer to the NFL and replaces QB Brian Hoyer with unproven sophomore Kirk Cousins (if he wins the job).
The Big Ten title talk will have to wait. But at least Spartan fans can still gloat over Wolverine fans.
10-2 (6-2)
5. Illinois - Okay, Ron Zook. Here's your shot to prove to everyone that you're more than just a good recruiter. You get one of the league's best QB's back in senior Juice Williams, one of the top receiving corps in the country and an experienced offensive line.
If Illinois doesn't live up to expectations this year, Zook may just be looking elsewhere for a job. Finishing 5-7 with losses to Western Michigan and Minnesota was a big disappointment in 2008. But the pieces are in place to at least flip that record in 2009.
8-4 (5-3)
6. Northwestern - Do you realize this team won nine games in 2008? Do you realize the Wildcats defense ranked fourth in the Big Ten last season, allowing just over 20 points per game? Do you realize the program has won six games or better four of the past five seasons?
Northwestern may just be the best little football program in America no one is talking about. Pat Fitzgerald gets most of his starters back on what should be another very strong defense. The running game should be fine, but we'll have to wait and see what the 'Cats get out of QB Mike Kafka.
8-4 (4-4)
7. Wisconsin - Yikes. 7-6 just doesn't look right next to "Wisconsin Badgers." But that's exactly what Bret Bielema got last season. And it could have been worse - the Badgers barely squeaked out wins over Fresno State and Minnesota.
What's strange is that, statistically, Wisconsin was pretty good last year. The one big thing missing was consistent QB play from Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer. Sherer is back, but he's facing stiff competition from freshman Curt Phillips.
Was 2008 a fluke or a sign of things to come? Bielema better hope for the former.
7-5 (4-4)
8. Minnesota - Um, did I miss the memo here? Why is everyone so in love with Minnesota this season? Is it the new stadium?
Yeah, they won seven games in 2008, but they lost their final five - including blowouts against Michigan, Iowa and Kansas in the Insight Bowl. The Gophers' early season success was impressive, but it's not like they were beating Top 25 teams.
Minnesota will have plenty of buzz this season with that shiny new outdoor stadium, and they do return QB Adam Weber (4th in Big Ten passing last season) and WR Erick Decker (1st in receiving). But for some reason I'm just not loving a team that comes in riding a five-game losing streak.
Yes, I know about the stadium.
5-7 (2-6)
9. Michigan - No, not yet Wolverine fans. Rich Rodriguez, I believe, will get this program back on the right track eventually, but it's going to take more time. Or do you think a team that won jut three games in 2008 is suddenly going to play like Charles Woodson is back in the (Big) house?
Sorry, that's not happening, especially with trips to Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin on the schedule. And now it sounds like Tate Forcier has struggled to assert himself in the QB race. That's not good news for a team that scored only 243 points total last season.
5-7 (2-6)
10. Purdue - I can't wait to see all of the "Hope" and "Change" signs that get busted out at Ross-Ade Stadium this year. New coach Danny Hope may not be Barack Obama, but he does have a couple things in common: high expectations and a lot of question marks.
The QB situation remains unresolved, as both redshirt freshman Caleb TerBush and sophomore Ralph Bolden have shots at the job. And Purdue has to correct a defense that ranked 2nd in the Big Ten against the pass but last against the run.
But, as Obama once said, in America, there is nothing false about Hope. Get out the sharpies.
3-9 (1-7)
11. Indiana - After the bowl appearance in 2007, Hoosier fans had high hopes in 2008, only to see their team fall to a 3-9 record. Worse yet, Indiana was blown out in just about every Big Ten game. They only had one win over an FBS opponent last season (Northwestern).
This year could be rough again, though the Hoosiers do have one of the league's best defensive lines headlined by senior DE Jammie Kirlew. It's tough to find many wins on the schedule.
2-10 (0-8)
Notre Dame - Yes, I am aware that Notre Dame does not play its football in the Big Ten. And for the Big Ten's sake, that might be a good thing. This team is good. QB Jimmy Clausen now has experience to go along with the talent he has flahsed through two seasons. And Clausen gets one of the nation's best receivers in Golden Tate to throw to, as well as a veteran offensive line that returns four starters. The defense, which moves to a 4-3 this season, has a chance to be special this year after allowing 30+ points only twice last season (Boston College and USC). Get ready for the media love affair: Notre Dame is back.
10-2
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
College Football Predictions: Pac-10
Could this be the year?
USC has rattled off seven consecutive Pac-10 titles, winning a couple of national titles and establishing itself as college football's premier program along the way.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Pac-10 has stood in the Trojans' dust, wondering if they'd ever have a legitimate shot to knock USC off its throne.
Well, Pac-10, here's your chance.
For the first time in a long time, Pete Carroll's Trojans have some serious questions coming into 2009. They still have not named a starting QB, with sophomore Aaron Corp and true freshman Matt Barkley in stiff competition.
And USC also loses nine starters from last year's stingy defense, along with its longtime defensive coordinator, Nick Holt.
Adding to the rest of the league's optimism should be the fact that the Trojans must play their biggest Pac-10 threats - Cal and Oregon - on the road. Coupled with the fact that USC has been plagued by surprising road losses the past two seasons (Stanford in '07, Oregon State in '08), and you've got some hope outside of University Park.
There is no question, 2009 presents a real opportunity for someone other than the Trojans to win the conference and earn a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.
The remaining question is: will anyone take advantage of the opportunity?
Pac-10:
Player of the Year: Jahvid Best (RB - Cal)
Offensive POY: Jacquizz Rodgers (RB - OSU)
Defensive POY: Taylor Mays (FS -USC)
1. USC - For most college football programs, losing a first-round QB to the NFL draft and nine defensive starters would spell a rebuilding a year. But USC, obviously, is not your typical college football program. The Trojans will no doubt reload in 2009. The biggest question will be at QB, as Corp and Barkley continue to battle. Whoever wins the job, though, will be able to rely on the best running back corps in the country, one of the most talented receiving units in the nation and perhaps the best offensive line Pete Carroll has had at USC. Trips to Ohio State, Cal and Oregon are a bit scary, but I'll let someone else be the one to bet against the Trojans.
Overall: 11-1, Conference: 8-1
2. California - It all looks good for the Bears to take a run at USC in '09. They have one of the nation's best RB's in Jahvid Best. Most of the key pieces return for a defense that ranked second in the Pac-10 in '08. The schedule looks manageable, especially with USC coming to Berkeley in October. Everything looks real good, in fact, until you get to the QB situation. Junior Kevin Riley completed just over 50 percent of his passes in '08, and his consistency has cost the Bears several times already. If he improves this year, the Bears could spoil USC's run for eight consecutive Pac-10 titles. If not, well, at least Best should be in the Heisman hunt.
10-2 (7-2)
3. Oregon - Mike Bellotti's exit as head coach to athletic director was so seemless, few outside of Eugene seemed to even notice that there was a coaching change. Former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly takes the helm, and he has a talented team to work with, starting with Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli. Masoli threw for 830 yds, rushed for 248 yds, and accounted for 13 total TDs in his final three games in 2008. If he carries that pace into 2009, he may just start hearing some Heisman talk. RB LeGarrette Blount looks poised for a huge year, too. But the holes are big on the defensive side, where the Ducks allowed 28.2 points per game last season.
9-3 (7-2)
4. Oregon State - This is just one of those programs you've got to pull for. Mike Riley always does more with less. He doesn't get first shot at the best recruits in the state or in the region (Oregon, Cal and even USC get first dibs). But yet, quietly, the Beavers have amassed the second-most wins in the Pac-10 in the past three seasons. True, OSU loses its entire secondary, as well as key pieces on both lines. But Riley does have the Rodgers brothers in junior WR James and sophomore RB Jacquizz, who shined in the Beavers' upset over USC last fall. There may be question marks, but Mike Riley thrives in these situations. Don't underestimate the Beavers.
8-4 (5-4)
5. Arizona State - After a breakout year in 2007 in which they won 10 games and found themselves momentarily in the BCS discussion, the Sun Devils whiffed in a big way in 2008. A 5-7 record, including a six-game losing streak mid-season, was a punch to the gut of ASU fans, who thought the program was headed for greatness with the arrival of Dennis Erickson. It could still be, and 2009 will go a long way in deciding that. The Devils get Cal, USC and rival Arizona in Tempe this season. But replacing QB Rudy Carpenter, a four-year starter, will prove to be difficult.
7-5 (5-4)
6. UCLA - Man, after that victory over Tennessee in the Bruins' opener last season, you would have thought UCLA had won the national championship. John Wooden was practically calling UCLA a football school, for crying out loud. And then they lost three straight, en route to a disappointing 4-8 campaign in Rick Neuheisel's first season. But the good news is, Neuheisel has brought in a solid recruiting class. And there's no question the attitude has changed in Westwood. Look for improvement on offense with true freshman QB Kevin Prince taking the reins from shaky Kevin Craft.
6-6 (4-5)
7. Stanford - I think they're still celebrating that 2007 win over USC at Stanford. That win catapulted the Cardinal to "Up-and-Comer" status and made Jim Harbaugh one of the hottest coaching names in the country. But Stanford stumbled to a 5-7 record in 2008. Even Harbaugh may feel some heat if Stanford does not improve in '09. RB Toby Gerhart is one of the best athletes in the Pac-10, and his legs give the Cardinal a fighting shot this season. But don't expect any USC upsets, or anything.
5-7 (4-5)
8. Arizona - Mike Stoops likely saved his job by guiding the Wildcats to their first bowl berth of the decade in 2008. So, why not expect improvement in 2009? For one, the QB situation is highly unsettled, as the 'Cats will turn to either Matt Scott or Nick Foles - both unproven sophomores - to take over for graduated Willie Tuitama. But the bigger reason is the schedule. Try finding a win here: at Iowa, at Oregon State, at Cal, Oregon, at Arizona State, at USC. Simply put, a second-straight bowl is asking a lot of Stoops.
5-7 (3-6)
9. Washington - Get this: the once-proud program at U-W managed to score over 20 points only twice all last season. The Huskies went 0-12 in 2008 and ranked last or second-to-last in just about every major category in the Pac-10 (in-state rival Washington State joined them in the cellar). But there is hope this season in the form of a new coach (Steve Sarkisian) and a talented QB (Jake Locker). Prediction: The Huskies' 14-game losing streak comes to an end Sept. 12 against Idaho. I think.
3-9 (2-7)
10. Washington State - I really tried hard to find a conference win on the Cougars' schedule in '09. But their best shots, Washington and Arizona, are on the road. And their other best shot, Stanford, is their first game of the season. So... sorry, Wazzu fans. The defense actually has some pretty nice pieces, though, including junior SS Xavier Hicks, who ranked fourth in the Pac-10 last year with 7.8 tackles per game.
1-10 (0-9)
USC has rattled off seven consecutive Pac-10 titles, winning a couple of national titles and establishing itself as college football's premier program along the way.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Pac-10 has stood in the Trojans' dust, wondering if they'd ever have a legitimate shot to knock USC off its throne.
Well, Pac-10, here's your chance.
For the first time in a long time, Pete Carroll's Trojans have some serious questions coming into 2009. They still have not named a starting QB, with sophomore Aaron Corp and true freshman Matt Barkley in stiff competition.
And USC also loses nine starters from last year's stingy defense, along with its longtime defensive coordinator, Nick Holt.
Adding to the rest of the league's optimism should be the fact that the Trojans must play their biggest Pac-10 threats - Cal and Oregon - on the road. Coupled with the fact that USC has been plagued by surprising road losses the past two seasons (Stanford in '07, Oregon State in '08), and you've got some hope outside of University Park.
There is no question, 2009 presents a real opportunity for someone other than the Trojans to win the conference and earn a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.
The remaining question is: will anyone take advantage of the opportunity?
Pac-10:
Player of the Year: Jahvid Best (RB - Cal)
Offensive POY: Jacquizz Rodgers (RB - OSU)
Defensive POY: Taylor Mays (FS -USC)
1. USC - For most college football programs, losing a first-round QB to the NFL draft and nine defensive starters would spell a rebuilding a year. But USC, obviously, is not your typical college football program. The Trojans will no doubt reload in 2009. The biggest question will be at QB, as Corp and Barkley continue to battle. Whoever wins the job, though, will be able to rely on the best running back corps in the country, one of the most talented receiving units in the nation and perhaps the best offensive line Pete Carroll has had at USC. Trips to Ohio State, Cal and Oregon are a bit scary, but I'll let someone else be the one to bet against the Trojans.
Overall: 11-1, Conference: 8-1
2. California - It all looks good for the Bears to take a run at USC in '09. They have one of the nation's best RB's in Jahvid Best. Most of the key pieces return for a defense that ranked second in the Pac-10 in '08. The schedule looks manageable, especially with USC coming to Berkeley in October. Everything looks real good, in fact, until you get to the QB situation. Junior Kevin Riley completed just over 50 percent of his passes in '08, and his consistency has cost the Bears several times already. If he improves this year, the Bears could spoil USC's run for eight consecutive Pac-10 titles. If not, well, at least Best should be in the Heisman hunt.
10-2 (7-2)
3. Oregon - Mike Bellotti's exit as head coach to athletic director was so seemless, few outside of Eugene seemed to even notice that there was a coaching change. Former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly takes the helm, and he has a talented team to work with, starting with Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli. Masoli threw for 830 yds, rushed for 248 yds, and accounted for 13 total TDs in his final three games in 2008. If he carries that pace into 2009, he may just start hearing some Heisman talk. RB LeGarrette Blount looks poised for a huge year, too. But the holes are big on the defensive side, where the Ducks allowed 28.2 points per game last season.
9-3 (7-2)
4. Oregon State - This is just one of those programs you've got to pull for. Mike Riley always does more with less. He doesn't get first shot at the best recruits in the state or in the region (Oregon, Cal and even USC get first dibs). But yet, quietly, the Beavers have amassed the second-most wins in the Pac-10 in the past three seasons. True, OSU loses its entire secondary, as well as key pieces on both lines. But Riley does have the Rodgers brothers in junior WR James and sophomore RB Jacquizz, who shined in the Beavers' upset over USC last fall. There may be question marks, but Mike Riley thrives in these situations. Don't underestimate the Beavers.
8-4 (5-4)
5. Arizona State - After a breakout year in 2007 in which they won 10 games and found themselves momentarily in the BCS discussion, the Sun Devils whiffed in a big way in 2008. A 5-7 record, including a six-game losing streak mid-season, was a punch to the gut of ASU fans, who thought the program was headed for greatness with the arrival of Dennis Erickson. It could still be, and 2009 will go a long way in deciding that. The Devils get Cal, USC and rival Arizona in Tempe this season. But replacing QB Rudy Carpenter, a four-year starter, will prove to be difficult.
7-5 (5-4)
6. UCLA - Man, after that victory over Tennessee in the Bruins' opener last season, you would have thought UCLA had won the national championship. John Wooden was practically calling UCLA a football school, for crying out loud. And then they lost three straight, en route to a disappointing 4-8 campaign in Rick Neuheisel's first season. But the good news is, Neuheisel has brought in a solid recruiting class. And there's no question the attitude has changed in Westwood. Look for improvement on offense with true freshman QB Kevin Prince taking the reins from shaky Kevin Craft.
6-6 (4-5)
7. Stanford - I think they're still celebrating that 2007 win over USC at Stanford. That win catapulted the Cardinal to "Up-and-Comer" status and made Jim Harbaugh one of the hottest coaching names in the country. But Stanford stumbled to a 5-7 record in 2008. Even Harbaugh may feel some heat if Stanford does not improve in '09. RB Toby Gerhart is one of the best athletes in the Pac-10, and his legs give the Cardinal a fighting shot this season. But don't expect any USC upsets, or anything.
5-7 (4-5)
8. Arizona - Mike Stoops likely saved his job by guiding the Wildcats to their first bowl berth of the decade in 2008. So, why not expect improvement in 2009? For one, the QB situation is highly unsettled, as the 'Cats will turn to either Matt Scott or Nick Foles - both unproven sophomores - to take over for graduated Willie Tuitama. But the bigger reason is the schedule. Try finding a win here: at Iowa, at Oregon State, at Cal, Oregon, at Arizona State, at USC. Simply put, a second-straight bowl is asking a lot of Stoops.
5-7 (3-6)
9. Washington - Get this: the once-proud program at U-W managed to score over 20 points only twice all last season. The Huskies went 0-12 in 2008 and ranked last or second-to-last in just about every major category in the Pac-10 (in-state rival Washington State joined them in the cellar). But there is hope this season in the form of a new coach (Steve Sarkisian) and a talented QB (Jake Locker). Prediction: The Huskies' 14-game losing streak comes to an end Sept. 12 against Idaho. I think.
3-9 (2-7)
10. Washington State - I really tried hard to find a conference win on the Cougars' schedule in '09. But their best shots, Washington and Arizona, are on the road. And their other best shot, Stanford, is their first game of the season. So... sorry, Wazzu fans. The defense actually has some pretty nice pieces, though, including junior SS Xavier Hicks, who ranked fourth in the Pac-10 last year with 7.8 tackles per game.
1-10 (0-9)
Sunday, August 16, 2009
College Football Predictions: Big East
They've got to be feeling some heat in the Big East.
A conference known far more for its hoops more than its half-backs, the Big East has struggled to keep pace with the "big boy" conferences of college football. Other than West Virginia, the league has presented no real national contenders this decade.
And now the little guys want a piece of them, too.
Much of the college football offseason was spent by non-BCS programs, namely those in the Mountain West Conference, arguing that they deserved an automatic bid to a BCS game. And one of their favorite examples of the unfair system was pointing out the average performace recently of leagues like the Big East.
Big East backers have typically argued that teams from non-BCS leagues would struggle to compete consistently with their conference schedules. But that argument is getting less applicable with every Utah and Boise State big-time victory.
To make matters worse, the first Coaches' Poll of the 2009 season places three MWC teams in the top 25. The Big East? Zero.
Suddenly the league becomes an even easier target for opponents of the BCS system.
A big year is needed from the Big East to prove that it belongs along with the best in college football. Or else it's going to be an even longer off-season in 2010.
Big East:
Player of the Year: Noel Devine (RB - WV)
Offensive POY: Tony Pike (QB - Cin)
Defensive POY: George Selvie (DE - SF)
1. South Florida - Two seasons, two top-10 rankings, two disappointing finishes. The Bulls showed flashes of brilliance both in 2007 and 2008, but faded down the stretch to finish with less-than brilliant records. Nothing was more disappointing than a 2-5 record in the Big East last season, turning a 5-0 start into an 8-5 finish. So why pick them to win the league in 2009? Because no team has a better QB (Matt Grothe) or defensive player (George Selvie) in the conference. Because three of the Bulls' losses in '08 were by six points or less. And because, this season, West Virginia has to come to Tampa. This will finally be the Bulls' (complete) year.
Overall: 10-2, Conference: 7-1
2. West Virginia - There were a lot of people across the country who doubted the decision to keep interim head coach Bill Stewart on after the departure of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan. But there's not much to doubt at this point. The Mountineers did lose two of their first three in 2008, but turned it around to finish 9-4. Now Stewart brings in what could be one of the best recruiting classes in WVU history. The future is bright in Morgantown - but so is the present thanks to star RB Noel Devine, who ranked third in the Big East with 1,289 rushing yards in 2008. QB Pat White will be missed, but Sr. Jarrett Brown has waited a long time for this opportunity. He won't take it lightly.
9-3 (6-2)
3. Pittsburgh - Is this the year? Those four words have become the mantra in Pittsburgh ever since the arrival of coach Dave Wannstedt. He has had the talent, but the results on the field have been mixed. But 2008 was a big step forward, as the Panthers won nine games and finished second in the Big East. Now Wannstedt must replace departed RB LeSean McCoy and LB Scott McKillop - both gone to the NFL. But there is still plenty of talent for the Panthers to work with, including DL Greg Romeus and budding star WR Jonathan Baldwin. Pitt has to get better play from QB Bill Stull, who threw for nine TD's and 10 INT's in 2008.
9-3 (6-2)
4. Rutgers - The Scarlet Knights are a good little football program these days. Greg Schiano has guided the program to 7, 11, 8 and 8 wins the past four seasons. Now Schiano gets 14 starters back from a 2008 campaign in which the Knights won their final seven games. But the biggest loss for the team is QB Mike Teel, who finished as the school's all-time passing leader. Luckily, the team has a talented young RB to lean on in Kordell Young, who rushed for five TD's in eight games last season. The defense, which ranked second overall in the Big East last season, will have to carry the Knights early as the QB situation gets settled.
8-4 (4-4)
5. Cincinnati - Not a bad second year for Brian Kelly, huh? Try 11-3, Big East champs and a BCS bowl bid on for size. Year three will not be as easy, however, as the Bearcats return just eight starters from their breakthrough season. But Kelly does get Sr. QB Tony Pike back, and he may just be good enough to keep the Bearcats competitive in '09. Pike threw for 2,407 yards and 19 TD's in '08 despite battling nagging injuries throughout the season. Look for huge numbers in '09 from Pike.
6-6 (4-4)
6. Connecticut - Donald Brown will be missed more in Storrs this season than basketball's Hasheem Thabeet. The RB led all Division-I rushers in 2008 with 2,083 yards. Now coach Randy Edsall will have to do without Brown, as well as three other NFL draftees. And the QB situation is a bit unsettled, with both Zach Frazer and Cody Endres competing for the job. The Huskies' passing game ranked second-to-last in the league last season. And now there's no Donald Brown to lean on.
5-7 (3-5)
7. Louisville - Look up "2009 Coaches on the Hot Seat" in the college football dictionary and you will find the name "Steve Kragthorpe" right at the top of the list. Kragthorpe is just 11-13 in his first two seasons after taking over for Bobby Petrino. And that just will not cut it in a town where 10+ wins was becoming the norm just a few years ago. The team does return seven starters on defense this season, but the unit allowed nearly 30 points per game last season. And this shedule is tough: at Kentucky, at Utah, at Cincinnati, at West Virginia and at South Florida just to name a few. I'd get the resume updated, coach.
4-8 (1-7)
8. Syracuse - Doug Marrone has the unenviable task of taking a team that has won a total of ten wins - ten wins! - the past four seasons and quickly making them relevant again. Um... I wouldn't hold my breath. But Marrone does get the return of WR Mike Williams, who may be one of the league's best NFL prospets. Williams missed all of 2008 due to an academic suspension.
3-9 (1-7)
A conference known far more for its hoops more than its half-backs, the Big East has struggled to keep pace with the "big boy" conferences of college football. Other than West Virginia, the league has presented no real national contenders this decade.
And now the little guys want a piece of them, too.
Much of the college football offseason was spent by non-BCS programs, namely those in the Mountain West Conference, arguing that they deserved an automatic bid to a BCS game. And one of their favorite examples of the unfair system was pointing out the average performace recently of leagues like the Big East.
Big East backers have typically argued that teams from non-BCS leagues would struggle to compete consistently with their conference schedules. But that argument is getting less applicable with every Utah and Boise State big-time victory.
To make matters worse, the first Coaches' Poll of the 2009 season places three MWC teams in the top 25. The Big East? Zero.
Suddenly the league becomes an even easier target for opponents of the BCS system.
A big year is needed from the Big East to prove that it belongs along with the best in college football. Or else it's going to be an even longer off-season in 2010.
Big East:
Player of the Year: Noel Devine (RB - WV)
Offensive POY: Tony Pike (QB - Cin)
Defensive POY: George Selvie (DE - SF)
1. South Florida - Two seasons, two top-10 rankings, two disappointing finishes. The Bulls showed flashes of brilliance both in 2007 and 2008, but faded down the stretch to finish with less-than brilliant records. Nothing was more disappointing than a 2-5 record in the Big East last season, turning a 5-0 start into an 8-5 finish. So why pick them to win the league in 2009? Because no team has a better QB (Matt Grothe) or defensive player (George Selvie) in the conference. Because three of the Bulls' losses in '08 were by six points or less. And because, this season, West Virginia has to come to Tampa. This will finally be the Bulls' (complete) year.
Overall: 10-2, Conference: 7-1
2. West Virginia - There were a lot of people across the country who doubted the decision to keep interim head coach Bill Stewart on after the departure of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan. But there's not much to doubt at this point. The Mountineers did lose two of their first three in 2008, but turned it around to finish 9-4. Now Stewart brings in what could be one of the best recruiting classes in WVU history. The future is bright in Morgantown - but so is the present thanks to star RB Noel Devine, who ranked third in the Big East with 1,289 rushing yards in 2008. QB Pat White will be missed, but Sr. Jarrett Brown has waited a long time for this opportunity. He won't take it lightly.
9-3 (6-2)
3. Pittsburgh - Is this the year? Those four words have become the mantra in Pittsburgh ever since the arrival of coach Dave Wannstedt. He has had the talent, but the results on the field have been mixed. But 2008 was a big step forward, as the Panthers won nine games and finished second in the Big East. Now Wannstedt must replace departed RB LeSean McCoy and LB Scott McKillop - both gone to the NFL. But there is still plenty of talent for the Panthers to work with, including DL Greg Romeus and budding star WR Jonathan Baldwin. Pitt has to get better play from QB Bill Stull, who threw for nine TD's and 10 INT's in 2008.
9-3 (6-2)
4. Rutgers - The Scarlet Knights are a good little football program these days. Greg Schiano has guided the program to 7, 11, 8 and 8 wins the past four seasons. Now Schiano gets 14 starters back from a 2008 campaign in which the Knights won their final seven games. But the biggest loss for the team is QB Mike Teel, who finished as the school's all-time passing leader. Luckily, the team has a talented young RB to lean on in Kordell Young, who rushed for five TD's in eight games last season. The defense, which ranked second overall in the Big East last season, will have to carry the Knights early as the QB situation gets settled.
8-4 (4-4)
5. Cincinnati - Not a bad second year for Brian Kelly, huh? Try 11-3, Big East champs and a BCS bowl bid on for size. Year three will not be as easy, however, as the Bearcats return just eight starters from their breakthrough season. But Kelly does get Sr. QB Tony Pike back, and he may just be good enough to keep the Bearcats competitive in '09. Pike threw for 2,407 yards and 19 TD's in '08 despite battling nagging injuries throughout the season. Look for huge numbers in '09 from Pike.
6-6 (4-4)
6. Connecticut - Donald Brown will be missed more in Storrs this season than basketball's Hasheem Thabeet. The RB led all Division-I rushers in 2008 with 2,083 yards. Now coach Randy Edsall will have to do without Brown, as well as three other NFL draftees. And the QB situation is a bit unsettled, with both Zach Frazer and Cody Endres competing for the job. The Huskies' passing game ranked second-to-last in the league last season. And now there's no Donald Brown to lean on.
5-7 (3-5)
7. Louisville - Look up "2009 Coaches on the Hot Seat" in the college football dictionary and you will find the name "Steve Kragthorpe" right at the top of the list. Kragthorpe is just 11-13 in his first two seasons after taking over for Bobby Petrino. And that just will not cut it in a town where 10+ wins was becoming the norm just a few years ago. The team does return seven starters on defense this season, but the unit allowed nearly 30 points per game last season. And this shedule is tough: at Kentucky, at Utah, at Cincinnati, at West Virginia and at South Florida just to name a few. I'd get the resume updated, coach.
4-8 (1-7)
8. Syracuse - Doug Marrone has the unenviable task of taking a team that has won a total of ten wins - ten wins! - the past four seasons and quickly making them relevant again. Um... I wouldn't hold my breath. But Marrone does get the return of WR Mike Williams, who may be one of the league's best NFL prospets. Williams missed all of 2008 due to an academic suspension.
3-9 (1-7)
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
College Football Predictions: Big 12
Sure, the SEC may be the best football conference in the country. True, they've got the defending national champs, a slew of Top 25 teams and countless rivalries. Oh, and that Tim Tebow fellow, too.
But if you want drama in 2009, there's only one place to look: the Big 12.
Fans in Austin are still seething after Texas lost out on a tie-breaker to rival Oklahoma in 2008, allowing the Sooners to march on to the Big 12 title game and, eventually, the BCS Championship game.
All of this despite the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma in the regular season.
And to make matters worse, OU QB Sam Bradford won the Heisman. Texas' Colt McCoy finished second.
Oh, and there was that whole incident with the plane flying over the campus in Austin calling on Texas coach Mack Brown to "Quit whining."
Now it appears that Texas and Oklahoma will once again battle for Big 12 supremacy. And whoever wins this year should have the inside track to play for a BCS title.
And if that isn't reason enough to watch the Big 12 in '09, there's also the fact that the league's offenses averaged over 35 points per game last season. Bradford and McCoy are just the start of what may be college football's best collection of QB's. And I dare you to find a more quotable list of coaches than Mike Leach, Mike Gundy and Dan Hawkins.
It all sets up for one high-scoring, tirade-flying, bad blood-settling season.
This is going to be good...
Big 12:
Player of the Year: Colt McCoy, QB (Tex)
Offensive POY: Kendall Hunter, RB (OSU)
Defensive POY: Ndamukong Suh, DT (Neb)
Big 12 Championship: Texas over Kansas
North:
1. Kansas - You gotta give Mark Mangino's team some credit. While trying to prove their brilliant 12-1 season in 2007, the Jayhawks could have easily given up hope when they fell to 6-5 overall and 3-4 in conference following a 35-7 drubbing by Texas on Nov. 15, 2009. Instead they defeated rival Missouri two weeks later and crushed Minnesota in the Insight Bowl to finish 4-4 in the Big 12 and 8-5 overall. This year, the 'Hawks are once again the class of the Big 12 North and have a much easier schedule to navigate. If they can win on Halloween at Texas Tech, 10 wins is a real possibility.
Overall: 9-3, Conference: 5-3
2. Nebraska - Bo Pelini's first year in Lincoln went aboust as well as even the most crazed Husker fan could have expected (and there are some really crazed Husker fans out there). Nine wins, including a Gator Bowl victory over Clemson, was impressive. Perhaps the most impressive - and significant - part of the turnaround was the improvement on defense. The Huskers allowed 28.5 points per game in 2008 which, in the Big 12, is a solid number. Look for continued improvement with Sr. DT Ndamukong Suh and Jr. DE Pierre Allen. The season will likely hinge on the performance of Jr. QB Zac Lee, who takes over for Joe Ganz.
7-5 (4-4)
3. Missouri - Long gone are the days of Chase Daniel playing catch up-and-down the field with Jeremy Maclin. Those two graduated after a somewhat disappointing 2008 season in which a 5-0 start turned into a 10-4 finish. This season the team may actually be carried by...the defense?? Yep, it's true - especially with the return of LB Sean Weatherspoon, who just might be the best LB in the Big 12. But the offensive talent will be sorely missed.
6-6 (4-4)
4. Colorado - Everyone's talking about coach Dan Hawkins' gutsy December prediction that the Buffs would have 10 wins in 2009. But there hasn't been a lot of talk about where, exactly, those 10 wins will come. Colorado travels to West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma State. Even if they could find a win in one of those three contests, they still have to welcome Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska to Boulder. Sorry, Hawk, but this is Division-I football. It's the Big 12.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Kansas State - I really, really want to believe that Bill Snyder can once again work his magic in Manhattan. But things are different now than they were when he took over the flailing program in 1989. There are high expectations - ones that Snyder himself helped establish. At least he has the benefit of 15 returning starters from 2008. But the Wildcats must improve a defense that allowed nearly 36 points per game last season.
5-7 (2-6)
6. Iowa State - Apparently, all you have to do to land a major coaching job in college football these days is win five games in two years and close out your final year with a strong 10-game losing streak. That's exactly what Gene Chizik did at Iowa State before Auburn hired him in December. Now the Cyclones find themselves with new coach Paul Rhoads and a whole lot of questions marks. At least Rhoads knows the bar isn't set too high.
4-8 (1-7)
South:
1. Texas - Think the Longhorns might have a thing or two to play for this season? McCoy will lead one of the most potent offenses in the country that returns eight starters. The defensive unit will certainly miss defensive lineman Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller, but LB Sergio Kindle and DT Lamarr Houston will still make life difficult for opposing offenses. The question, of course, is whether the Longhorns can survive the '09 season unscathed to reach a BCS title game. All eyes will (obviously) be on the Red River Rivalry in Dallas Oct. 17, but don't overlook about the 'Horns Halloween trip to Oklahoma State, either.
11-1 (7-1)
2. Oklahoma - Sam Bradford's stat line in 2008 reads like something out of a video game: 4,720 yards passing, 50 TD's, 8 INT's. I know some video game nerds who would kill to put up some virtual numbers like that. Whether Bradford puts up similar numbers or not this year will likely depend on whether an offensive line that lost four of five starters can reload in '09. Bradford will still have plenty of weapons, including Jr. RB Demarco Murray and Sr. TE Jermaine Gresham. Of course, no individual (or team) statistics will matter. What matters to Bob Stoops and Co. is a shot at redemption after January's loss to Florida. Only a BCS title will do in Norman.
11-1 (7-1)
3. Oklahoma State - This offense is good. The Cowboys averaged 40.8 points and 245.5 rush yards per game in 2008. The skillset trio of QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant may be the best in the nation. The problem, of course, is that the OSU defense couldn't stop opposing offenses when it needed to in '08, allowing 40-plus points in losses to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oregon. But there is hope that those numbers will go down this season, with the linebacking trio of Andre Sexton, Patrick Lavine and Orie Lemon all returning. As for the offense, expect the numbers to go nowhere but up.
10-2 (6-2)
4. Baylor - Okay, calm down. Take a breath. Yes, i'm picking Baylor fourth in the Big 12 South this season. Yes, that reads "8-4" below. Here's why: So. QB Robert Griffin is quite possibly the most athletic QB in the Big 12. The Bears rush defense, led by 2008 Big 12 tackles leader Joe Paweleck, should improve on last season when it ranked 7th in the Big 12. And the Bears have a budding star in Jr. RB Jay Finley. Plus, if the Bears can pull off a road upset in their opener at Wake Forest, they could start the season 4-0. If you're looking for a sleeper, here's a keeper.
8-4 (4-4)
5. Texas Tech - The Big Wigs at Tech were wise to finally sign Mike Leach to a multi-year coaching contract in the winter. Leach has gone 65-37 in nine years in Lubbock and has the program squarely on the rise. But 2009 will be a test, as the squad must replace departed stars in QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. Jr. QB Taylor Potts and Sr. WR Edward Britton will attempt to fill those shoes. With Leach still drawing up the plays, the task seems a bit more manageable.
7-5 (3-5)
6. Texas A&M - Mike Sherman sloughed through a rough 2008 campaign, but he did so with a ton of young, inexperienced players. That experience should pay off a bit in 2009, when the Aggies return ... starters, including Jr. QB Jerrod Johnson, So. WR Jeff Fuller and Jr. DE Von Miller. The Aggies may still be a year or so away, but at least there's reason for hope.
4-8 (1-7)
But if you want drama in 2009, there's only one place to look: the Big 12.
Fans in Austin are still seething after Texas lost out on a tie-breaker to rival Oklahoma in 2008, allowing the Sooners to march on to the Big 12 title game and, eventually, the BCS Championship game.
All of this despite the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma in the regular season.
And to make matters worse, OU QB Sam Bradford won the Heisman. Texas' Colt McCoy finished second.
Oh, and there was that whole incident with the plane flying over the campus in Austin calling on Texas coach Mack Brown to "Quit whining."
Now it appears that Texas and Oklahoma will once again battle for Big 12 supremacy. And whoever wins this year should have the inside track to play for a BCS title.
And if that isn't reason enough to watch the Big 12 in '09, there's also the fact that the league's offenses averaged over 35 points per game last season. Bradford and McCoy are just the start of what may be college football's best collection of QB's. And I dare you to find a more quotable list of coaches than Mike Leach, Mike Gundy and Dan Hawkins.
It all sets up for one high-scoring, tirade-flying, bad blood-settling season.
This is going to be good...
Big 12:
Player of the Year: Colt McCoy, QB (Tex)
Offensive POY: Kendall Hunter, RB (OSU)
Defensive POY: Ndamukong Suh, DT (Neb)
Big 12 Championship: Texas over Kansas
North:
1. Kansas - You gotta give Mark Mangino's team some credit. While trying to prove their brilliant 12-1 season in 2007, the Jayhawks could have easily given up hope when they fell to 6-5 overall and 3-4 in conference following a 35-7 drubbing by Texas on Nov. 15, 2009. Instead they defeated rival Missouri two weeks later and crushed Minnesota in the Insight Bowl to finish 4-4 in the Big 12 and 8-5 overall. This year, the 'Hawks are once again the class of the Big 12 North and have a much easier schedule to navigate. If they can win on Halloween at Texas Tech, 10 wins is a real possibility.
Overall: 9-3, Conference: 5-3
2. Nebraska - Bo Pelini's first year in Lincoln went aboust as well as even the most crazed Husker fan could have expected (and there are some really crazed Husker fans out there). Nine wins, including a Gator Bowl victory over Clemson, was impressive. Perhaps the most impressive - and significant - part of the turnaround was the improvement on defense. The Huskers allowed 28.5 points per game in 2008 which, in the Big 12, is a solid number. Look for continued improvement with Sr. DT Ndamukong Suh and Jr. DE Pierre Allen. The season will likely hinge on the performance of Jr. QB Zac Lee, who takes over for Joe Ganz.
7-5 (4-4)
3. Missouri - Long gone are the days of Chase Daniel playing catch up-and-down the field with Jeremy Maclin. Those two graduated after a somewhat disappointing 2008 season in which a 5-0 start turned into a 10-4 finish. This season the team may actually be carried by...the defense?? Yep, it's true - especially with the return of LB Sean Weatherspoon, who just might be the best LB in the Big 12. But the offensive talent will be sorely missed.
6-6 (4-4)
4. Colorado - Everyone's talking about coach Dan Hawkins' gutsy December prediction that the Buffs would have 10 wins in 2009. But there hasn't been a lot of talk about where, exactly, those 10 wins will come. Colorado travels to West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma State. Even if they could find a win in one of those three contests, they still have to welcome Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska to Boulder. Sorry, Hawk, but this is Division-I football. It's the Big 12.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Kansas State - I really, really want to believe that Bill Snyder can once again work his magic in Manhattan. But things are different now than they were when he took over the flailing program in 1989. There are high expectations - ones that Snyder himself helped establish. At least he has the benefit of 15 returning starters from 2008. But the Wildcats must improve a defense that allowed nearly 36 points per game last season.
5-7 (2-6)
6. Iowa State - Apparently, all you have to do to land a major coaching job in college football these days is win five games in two years and close out your final year with a strong 10-game losing streak. That's exactly what Gene Chizik did at Iowa State before Auburn hired him in December. Now the Cyclones find themselves with new coach Paul Rhoads and a whole lot of questions marks. At least Rhoads knows the bar isn't set too high.
4-8 (1-7)
South:
1. Texas - Think the Longhorns might have a thing or two to play for this season? McCoy will lead one of the most potent offenses in the country that returns eight starters. The defensive unit will certainly miss defensive lineman Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller, but LB Sergio Kindle and DT Lamarr Houston will still make life difficult for opposing offenses. The question, of course, is whether the Longhorns can survive the '09 season unscathed to reach a BCS title game. All eyes will (obviously) be on the Red River Rivalry in Dallas Oct. 17, but don't overlook about the 'Horns Halloween trip to Oklahoma State, either.
11-1 (7-1)
2. Oklahoma - Sam Bradford's stat line in 2008 reads like something out of a video game: 4,720 yards passing, 50 TD's, 8 INT's. I know some video game nerds who would kill to put up some virtual numbers like that. Whether Bradford puts up similar numbers or not this year will likely depend on whether an offensive line that lost four of five starters can reload in '09. Bradford will still have plenty of weapons, including Jr. RB Demarco Murray and Sr. TE Jermaine Gresham. Of course, no individual (or team) statistics will matter. What matters to Bob Stoops and Co. is a shot at redemption after January's loss to Florida. Only a BCS title will do in Norman.
11-1 (7-1)
3. Oklahoma State - This offense is good. The Cowboys averaged 40.8 points and 245.5 rush yards per game in 2008. The skillset trio of QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant may be the best in the nation. The problem, of course, is that the OSU defense couldn't stop opposing offenses when it needed to in '08, allowing 40-plus points in losses to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oregon. But there is hope that those numbers will go down this season, with the linebacking trio of Andre Sexton, Patrick Lavine and Orie Lemon all returning. As for the offense, expect the numbers to go nowhere but up.
10-2 (6-2)
4. Baylor - Okay, calm down. Take a breath. Yes, i'm picking Baylor fourth in the Big 12 South this season. Yes, that reads "8-4" below. Here's why: So. QB Robert Griffin is quite possibly the most athletic QB in the Big 12. The Bears rush defense, led by 2008 Big 12 tackles leader Joe Paweleck, should improve on last season when it ranked 7th in the Big 12. And the Bears have a budding star in Jr. RB Jay Finley. Plus, if the Bears can pull off a road upset in their opener at Wake Forest, they could start the season 4-0. If you're looking for a sleeper, here's a keeper.
8-4 (4-4)
5. Texas Tech - The Big Wigs at Tech were wise to finally sign Mike Leach to a multi-year coaching contract in the winter. Leach has gone 65-37 in nine years in Lubbock and has the program squarely on the rise. But 2009 will be a test, as the squad must replace departed stars in QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. Jr. QB Taylor Potts and Sr. WR Edward Britton will attempt to fill those shoes. With Leach still drawing up the plays, the task seems a bit more manageable.
7-5 (3-5)
6. Texas A&M - Mike Sherman sloughed through a rough 2008 campaign, but he did so with a ton of young, inexperienced players. That experience should pay off a bit in 2009, when the Aggies return ... starters, including Jr. QB Jerrod Johnson, So. WR Jeff Fuller and Jr. DE Von Miller. The Aggies may still be a year or so away, but at least there's reason for hope.
4-8 (1-7)
What, is it the purple jerseys?
Close your eyes for a minute.
I'm going to tell you about a baseball team. They're a good baseball team - 12 games over .500 in Major League Baseball this season. They're the National League Wild Card leaders. They are still within striking distance of the division leader - the best team in the NL all year long.
This team I'm telling you about is eight games over .500 at home this year, but they're also four games over .500 on the road. No team has won more road games in 2009 than they have.
Since June 4th, this squad has gone 42-18 - the best record in the MLB in that span - with series sweeps including at St. Louis, at Milwaukee and at home against Seattle. They just took three-of-four from the Chicago Cubs, scoring 33 runs along the way.
This team has scored 562 runs total this year, the second-most in the NL and sixth-most in all of baseball. Perhaps most impressive is that, despite playing in an overwhelmingly hitter-friendly ballpark, there are only five teams in the NL that have allowed less runs this year. Their run differential (+67) is second best in the league, too.
What's more, this team has the NL Saves leader, a starting staff with the sixth-best ERA in the NL to go along with the fifth-best fielding percentage.
If I told you all of that - along with the fact that the team plays 29 of its remaining 50 games at home - would you say that team has a pretty darn good shot at making the playoffs? That this team is clearly a very good team - perhaps among the best in the MLB? Sure you would.
Okay, you can open your eyes now.
The team I've been telling you about is the Colorado Rockies. And, if you're like 99% of the baseball-watching world outside of Colorado, you probably are already uttering things like "Yeah, but they'll fade," or "That pitching staff is weak" or "Huh. I was unaware Colorado had a baseball team."
Even after a World Series run in 2007 that rivaled any in MLB history, even after producing perennial All-Stars like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, even after playing the best baseball in baseball for the past two months, the Rockies still remain largely disregarded and disrespected by most baseball fans, analysts and national media outlets.
(Don't believe me? Just check out where the Rockies' highlights land on any given Baseball Tonight show. Or look up the 2007 MLB Awards voting).
Not that any of this really matters, of course. And not to say that any Rockies fans really want the national attention. We'll take a nice, quiet ride to the postseason without any glamour or glitz, thank you very much.
So I guess I'm just trying to give you a little heads-up. Take this as a friend's recommendation to pay attention to a team that is quietly having the best year in its franchise's 16-year history. A team that has a load of young stars (Street, Tulowitzki, Fowler, Gonzalez) and a helping of consistent, classy veterans (Helton, Cook, Hawpe) who long have labored under the lonely lights of a near-empty Coors Field.
But now the fans - and good baseball - are back at 20th and Blake. The Rockies may just turn out to be the story of the 2009 MLB season, whether or not anyone else takes notice.
Just keep your eyes open.
I'm going to tell you about a baseball team. They're a good baseball team - 12 games over .500 in Major League Baseball this season. They're the National League Wild Card leaders. They are still within striking distance of the division leader - the best team in the NL all year long.
This team I'm telling you about is eight games over .500 at home this year, but they're also four games over .500 on the road. No team has won more road games in 2009 than they have.
Since June 4th, this squad has gone 42-18 - the best record in the MLB in that span - with series sweeps including at St. Louis, at Milwaukee and at home against Seattle. They just took three-of-four from the Chicago Cubs, scoring 33 runs along the way.
This team has scored 562 runs total this year, the second-most in the NL and sixth-most in all of baseball. Perhaps most impressive is that, despite playing in an overwhelmingly hitter-friendly ballpark, there are only five teams in the NL that have allowed less runs this year. Their run differential (+67) is second best in the league, too.
What's more, this team has the NL Saves leader, a starting staff with the sixth-best ERA in the NL to go along with the fifth-best fielding percentage.
If I told you all of that - along with the fact that the team plays 29 of its remaining 50 games at home - would you say that team has a pretty darn good shot at making the playoffs? That this team is clearly a very good team - perhaps among the best in the MLB? Sure you would.
Okay, you can open your eyes now.
The team I've been telling you about is the Colorado Rockies. And, if you're like 99% of the baseball-watching world outside of Colorado, you probably are already uttering things like "Yeah, but they'll fade," or "That pitching staff is weak" or "Huh. I was unaware Colorado had a baseball team."
Even after a World Series run in 2007 that rivaled any in MLB history, even after producing perennial All-Stars like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, even after playing the best baseball in baseball for the past two months, the Rockies still remain largely disregarded and disrespected by most baseball fans, analysts and national media outlets.
(Don't believe me? Just check out where the Rockies' highlights land on any given Baseball Tonight show. Or look up the 2007 MLB Awards voting).
Not that any of this really matters, of course. And not to say that any Rockies fans really want the national attention. We'll take a nice, quiet ride to the postseason without any glamour or glitz, thank you very much.
So I guess I'm just trying to give you a little heads-up. Take this as a friend's recommendation to pay attention to a team that is quietly having the best year in its franchise's 16-year history. A team that has a load of young stars (Street, Tulowitzki, Fowler, Gonzalez) and a helping of consistent, classy veterans (Helton, Cook, Hawpe) who long have labored under the lonely lights of a near-empty Coors Field.
But now the fans - and good baseball - are back at 20th and Blake. The Rockies may just turn out to be the story of the 2009 MLB season, whether or not anyone else takes notice.
Just keep your eyes open.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
College Football Predictions: ACC
Uh... so, that whole conference re-alignment thing really worked out, didn't it?
Ever since 2004, when the ACC swiped Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech from the Big East - an attempt to challenge the SEC and Big 12 for College Football conference supremacy - results have been...well, mixed.
Florida State, which not that long ago was one of the nation's premier programs, hasn't won more than 8 games since 2005.
Miami, after back-to-back BCS title games in the early 00's, has become one of college football's biggest disappointments, going 19-19 in the past three seasons and frequenting postseason stops like the Peach Bowl and the MPC Computers Bowl.
The one bright spot, of course, has been Virginia Tech.
Frank Beamer has built the Hokies into a perennial College Football power, with three conference titles and three BCS bowls since 2004 to show for it.
But no one will take the ACC all that seriously until someone - anyone? Beamer? -steps up to win another national title.
Offensive POY: Russell Wilson, QB (NCST)
Defensive POY: Quan Sturdivant, LB (UNC)
ACC Championship Game: Virginia Tech over NC State
Atlantic Division:
1. NC State - Following a dismal 2-6 start, the Wolfpack rebounded to win their final four regular season games in 2008, including an impressive 41-10 dismantling of then-ranked North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Now, the 'Pack returns 14 starters, including Jr. Russell Wilson, who may just be the most talented QB in the ACC. Head coach Tom O'Brien also gets back a defensive unit that improved greatly down the stretch in '08, allowing just over 20 points per contest in its final 5 games. The health of LB Nate Irving, injured in a serious car accident in July, is a great concern for the Pack both on and off the field heading into 2009.
Overall: 10-2, Conference: 6-2
2. Florida State - Distractions? What distractions? The NCAA ruling on FSU off-field violations comes at a bad time for Bobby Bowden and the 'Noles. After several years of disappointment on the field, the team finally appears to have a squad capable of winning the ACC. Sr. QB Christian Ponder will lead a potentially explosive offense, and the defense boasts returning stud FS Dekoda Watson. Bowden has plenty of talent, but it's tough to see the 'Noles winning more than 8 or 9 games with trips to BYU, North Carolina, Clemson and Florida on the schedule.
8-4 (5-3)
Ever since 2004, when the ACC swiped Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech from the Big East - an attempt to challenge the SEC and Big 12 for College Football conference supremacy - results have been...well, mixed.
Florida State, which not that long ago was one of the nation's premier programs, hasn't won more than 8 games since 2005.
Miami, after back-to-back BCS title games in the early 00's, has become one of college football's biggest disappointments, going 19-19 in the past three seasons and frequenting postseason stops like the Peach Bowl and the MPC Computers Bowl.
The one bright spot, of course, has been Virginia Tech.
Frank Beamer has built the Hokies into a perennial College Football power, with three conference titles and three BCS bowls since 2004 to show for it.
But no one will take the ACC all that seriously until someone - anyone? Beamer? -steps up to win another national title.
Just don't expect 2009 to be the year.
ACC:
Offensive POY: Russell Wilson, QB (NCST)
Defensive POY: Quan Sturdivant, LB (UNC)
ACC Championship Game: Virginia Tech over NC State
Atlantic Division:
1. NC State - Following a dismal 2-6 start, the Wolfpack rebounded to win their final four regular season games in 2008, including an impressive 41-10 dismantling of then-ranked North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Now, the 'Pack returns 14 starters, including Jr. Russell Wilson, who may just be the most talented QB in the ACC. Head coach Tom O'Brien also gets back a defensive unit that improved greatly down the stretch in '08, allowing just over 20 points per contest in its final 5 games. The health of LB Nate Irving, injured in a serious car accident in July, is a great concern for the Pack both on and off the field heading into 2009.
Overall: 10-2, Conference: 6-2
2. Florida State - Distractions? What distractions? The NCAA ruling on FSU off-field violations comes at a bad time for Bobby Bowden and the 'Noles. After several years of disappointment on the field, the team finally appears to have a squad capable of winning the ACC. Sr. QB Christian Ponder will lead a potentially explosive offense, and the defense boasts returning stud FS Dekoda Watson. Bowden has plenty of talent, but it's tough to see the 'Noles winning more than 8 or 9 games with trips to BYU, North Carolina, Clemson and Florida on the schedule.
8-4 (5-3)
3. Clemson - After years of underachievement under Tommy Bowden, the biggest asset new coach Dabo Swinney has on his side may just be lowered expectations. For once, no one really expects much out of the Tigers. And while the proof will alwaysin the pudding, the talent is there for Clemson to challenge for an Atlantic title. RB C.J. Spiller led the ACC in All-Purpose yards in '08. Highly touted So. QB Willy Korn takes the reins behind an experienced O-line. And the Defense, which ranked 2nd in the ACC in '08, returns 10 starters in 2009.
7-5 (4-4)
4. Boston College - Sure, the Eagles don't really have, say, a QB. But the BC defense (which ranked fifth in the nation last year) still has enough to keep the Eagles competing in '09. And an experienced O-line should be able to push RB Montel Harris to a big year. Plus, Florida State, NC State and North Carolina all must travel to Chestnut Hill, Mass.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Maryland - Ralph Friedgen has a challenge ahead of him in a year when he may be coaching for his job. The 'Terps lose 12 starters from 2008, when they finished 8-5 overall and 4-4 in conference play. An opening week trip to Berkely to take on Cal should tell us a lot about how competitive Maryland will be in '09.
5-7 (3-5)
6. Wake Forest - The Deacons lose eight starters on a defense that carried them in 2008. They return most of the starters on offense, but is that really a good thing for a team that struggled to score just 21 points per game last season? Yeah... that's what I thought.
3-9 (1-7)
Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech - Frank Beamer may be the most underrated college coach in America. All he does is build Top-10, ACC-winning, BCS-bowling teams year after year after year. While part of me loves the Georgia Tech story (see below), I just can't pick against the consistent Hokies. QB Tyrod Taylor finally takes over as the true no. 1. He'll have plenty of help with the return of RB Darren Evans, who rushed for over 1,200 yds in '08. The Hokies' D, which allowed an ACC-best 16.7 points per game last year, returns a plethora of starters, including DE Jason Worilds and CB Stephan Virgil. Don't bet against Beamer.
11-1 (7-1)
2. Georgia Tech - You've gotta love Paul Johnson. Dude dominates for years at Navy using his non-traditional triple-option offense, then comes to Georgia Tech where supposedly his system "won't work" due to "bigger and faster defenses." Uhhh, yeah...I think it worked. The Jackets averaged 273.3 yards rushing per game last year - per game!! RB Jonathan Dwyer will absolutely find himself in the Heisman hunt this season. And if the Jackets shore up a sometimes-leaky defense, Johnson might just be showing off that triple-option of his in a BCS game.
10-2 (6-2)
3. North Carolina - I heard Tar Heel coach Butch Davis say on ESPN the other day that he can envision a time when UNC football is king on the Chapel Hill campus. I laughed and laughed. That'll happen just as soon as Coach K gets hired for the UNC Assistant AD position. But - make no mistake - Heels football is back, thanks to Davis. The only problem in '09 is that the team's three toughest games - Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and NC State - are all played on the road. At least there won't be any Cameron Crazies there.
9-3 (5-3)
4. Miami - Randy Shannon hasn't done a bad job at Miami. He's gone 19-19 in three seasons and gotten the 'Canes to two decent bowls. The problem is, that's not good enough in Miami. Everyone remembers the "glory days," which weren't that long ago, and want them back. Jr. RB Craig Cooper looks like he's on the verge of a big year, and new Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple will certainly make use of him. But the Hurricanes' first four games are ridiculous - at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, Oklahoma. 1-3 or 0-4 are real possibilities.
7-5 (5-3)
5. Virginia - Points? Where are the points? The Cavalier offense ranked last in the ACC in '08 with 299.8 yards and 16.1 points per game. Al Groh has certainly brought decent football to Virginia, but lately he hasn't brought much offense - or wins. Either Jameel Sewell or Vic Hall has to have a breakout year for Virginia to factor into the ACC picture.
4-8 (1-7)
6. Duke - Hey, you've gotta give David Cutliffe some credit. In two years, he's made Duke football watchable again. I mean, I watched an entire game last year and didn't lose my lunch - even once! Sr. QB Thaddeus Lewis quietly ranked second in the ACC in pass yards per game in '08. Maybe this year I can even watch two full games without a bottle Pepto Bismol nearby!
4-8 (1-7)
Friday, July 24, 2009
College Football Predictions: MWC
Ahh, it's that time of year. The grass gets cut, the lines get painted, the marching bands warm up and Tim Tebow starts saving the world all over again.
It's (almost) time for College Football.
And to fill the next 31 days until the season kicks off (Sept. 3), I'm going to enlighten you all with my predictions for the 2009 season. Conference-by-conference, and (eventually) bowl-by-bowl.
Today, we start with the Mountain West Conference - the "little brother" of college football. The torch-carrier of the "BCS is BS" debate. The most talked-about conference in the offseason not named the "SEC."
And also, as a matter of fact, a pretty darn good football conference.
Utah shocked the sports world in January with a dominant 31-17 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, once again igniting the argument that non-BCS conferences deserve a clear shot at a national title.
This year, the Biggest Little League in America presents three potential BCS busters: defending conference champ Utah, BYU and TCU.
But, since a 12-0 campaign will likely be needed for a BCS berth, only one of those teams can realistically hope to crash the party this season.
So, who will be the Utah of 2009?
Mountain West Conference:
MVP: Max Hall, QB (BYU)
Offensive POY: Harvey Unga, RB (BYU)
Defensive POY: Jerry Hughes, DE (TCU)
1. BYU - Bronco Mendenhall has done what Cougars fans long anticipated in Provo - he has returned BYU football back to the elite level it enjoyed under LaVell Edwards. Mendenhall has had help recently, though, namely in the form of Heisman-candidate QB Max Hall. Hall threw for a league-best 3,957 yds and 35 TD's in '08. Those numbers are likely to improve in '09, even with favorite target Austin Collie gone to the NFL. Hall still has one of the best TE's in America in Dennis Pitta and workhorse RB Harvey Unga taking pressure off in the backfield. Defensively, the Cougars need to improve on a rush defense that allowed over 140 yards per game a season ago. With both TCU and Utah coming to Provo this year, an undefeated conference record seems highly possible. But 12-0 (and a BCS bowl) may be a different story, as BYU opens the season at Oklahoma on Sept. 5.
Record: Overall: 11-1 Conference: 7-1
2. TCU - The Horned Frogs return 11 starters from last year's 10-2 squad (which defeated Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl). Most importantly, TCU gets back its best defensive player in All-America candidate DE Jerry Hughes, who anchors a defensive unit that held opponents to a staggering 10.9 points per game in '08 - the second-best mark in the country. Whether the Frogs can win their third MWC title will depend on the success of a frequently-stagnant offense - particularly junior QB Andy Dalton, who needs to improve consistency after completing under 60% of his passes last season. Oct. 24 in Provo will stand in the way of a MWC title - and a potential BCS bowl.
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
3. Utah - The Utes' impressive BCS runs of 2004 and 2008 have almost singlehandedly elevated the MWC to the title of "best non-BCS conference." Their defeat of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl sent shock waves throughout college football. Now, for an encore, the Utes attempt to replace 6 offensive starters lost from 2008, including MWC Offensive Player of the Year QB Brian Johnson. The good news is that the Utes' defense, which ranked 12th in the nation last year, returns 7 starters, including a stout linebacker corps led by Stevenson Sylvester. The unit will need to carry a young offense early in the season, especially on a Sept. 19 trip to Eugene to face Oregon. We should know by the end of that contest whether or not the Utes can repeat some of their 2008 magic.
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
4. Colorado State - For his debut, Steve Fairchild took a program that was fading under its legendary coach and led it to its first bowl victory in seven years. Not too shabby. Now, after losing All-MWC RB Gartrell Johnson (a fourth-round pick in April's NFL Draft) along with graduated QB Billy Farris, Fairchild will try to prove that '08 was no fluke. The Rams boast the league's most experienced offensive line, led by Sr. OT Shelley Smith. Defensively, the Rams need a big year from Sr. SS Klint Kubiak, who has battled injuries throughout his time in Fort Collins. A second consecutive bowl is a legitimate possibility for the Rams, but it won't be as easy this time around. Luckily, the Rams have a relatively manageable schedule.
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
5. Air Force - Things started getting interesting in Colorado Springs when 2008 MWC Freshman of the Year Tim Jefferson began struggling with academics in the Spring. Assuming Jefferson stays eligible, the Falcons should be in line for a third consecutive bowl game. So. RB Asher Clark also returns for an option threat that continues to give opponents fits. The question is whether Air Force can remain consistent for an entire 12-game season. The Falcons started 8-2 in '08, only to lose their final three games, including the Armed Forces Bowl against Houston. Still, Air Force should remain one of the better under-the-radar programs in America.
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
6. UNLV - Ladies and gentleman, I present to you the MWC "Sleeper of the Year." Everyone seems to be jumping on the Rebels' bandwagon. My friend Mike thinks they might win a BCS bowl. Seriously. With junior QB Omar Clayton and SR WR Ryan Wolfe leading a potentially explosive offensive attack, it's easy to understand the sentiment. But UNLV hasn't' won more than 5 games since 2003. What's worse, despite finishing a respectable 5-7, the Rebels allowed 32.6 points per game last season - 32.6 points!! Also, UNLV loses RB "Frank-the-Tank" Summers, who took a ton of pressure off Clayton and the pass offense in '08. Sleepers, maybe, but in Vegas it's always a roll of the dice with this team. Write that down.
Record: 5-7 (3-5)
7. New Mexico - Welcome to Albuquerque, Mike Locksley. Your task is simple: improve upon fired coach Rocky Long's 43-31 record and 5 bowl games since 2001. Um... stil not quite sure why Long was fired, but I'm not holding my breath for any shocking rise to BCS contention anytime soon. The Lobos do return Sr. DB Clint McPeek, who ranked sixth in the MWC last year with 103 total tackles. So... that's good, right?
Record: 4-8 (2-6)
8. Wyoming - Well, as they say, "go big or go home," right? The Cowboys and their new coach, Dave Christensen, are certainly doing that in 2009. Wyo brings some program called "Texas" into Laramie in Week 2. After that expected beat-down, the 'Pokes head to Boulder to face another Big 12 team in Colorado. By the time they get to the MWC schedule, the Cowboys may have little confidence left.
Record: 2-10 (1-7)
9. San Diego State - SDSU has become one of the country's biggest quagmires. Why can a program - in this large of a city, with this much surrounding talent, and that beautiful of a campus - not consistently compete in football? The latest employed to figure that one out is former Ball State coach Brady Hoke. Hoke will attempt to build around QB Ryan Lindley, who threw for 16 TD's and 9 INT's last year as a freshman.
Record: 2-10 (1-7)
It's (almost) time for College Football.
And to fill the next 31 days until the season kicks off (Sept. 3), I'm going to enlighten you all with my predictions for the 2009 season. Conference-by-conference, and (eventually) bowl-by-bowl.
Today, we start with the Mountain West Conference - the "little brother" of college football. The torch-carrier of the "BCS is BS" debate. The most talked-about conference in the offseason not named the "SEC."
And also, as a matter of fact, a pretty darn good football conference.
Utah shocked the sports world in January with a dominant 31-17 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, once again igniting the argument that non-BCS conferences deserve a clear shot at a national title.
This year, the Biggest Little League in America presents three potential BCS busters: defending conference champ Utah, BYU and TCU.
But, since a 12-0 campaign will likely be needed for a BCS berth, only one of those teams can realistically hope to crash the party this season.
So, who will be the Utah of 2009?
Mountain West Conference:
MVP: Max Hall, QB (BYU)
Offensive POY: Harvey Unga, RB (BYU)
Defensive POY: Jerry Hughes, DE (TCU)
1. BYU - Bronco Mendenhall has done what Cougars fans long anticipated in Provo - he has returned BYU football back to the elite level it enjoyed under LaVell Edwards. Mendenhall has had help recently, though, namely in the form of Heisman-candidate QB Max Hall. Hall threw for a league-best 3,957 yds and 35 TD's in '08. Those numbers are likely to improve in '09, even with favorite target Austin Collie gone to the NFL. Hall still has one of the best TE's in America in Dennis Pitta and workhorse RB Harvey Unga taking pressure off in the backfield. Defensively, the Cougars need to improve on a rush defense that allowed over 140 yards per game a season ago. With both TCU and Utah coming to Provo this year, an undefeated conference record seems highly possible. But 12-0 (and a BCS bowl) may be a different story, as BYU opens the season at Oklahoma on Sept. 5.
Record: Overall: 11-1 Conference: 7-1
2. TCU - The Horned Frogs return 11 starters from last year's 10-2 squad (which defeated Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl). Most importantly, TCU gets back its best defensive player in All-America candidate DE Jerry Hughes, who anchors a defensive unit that held opponents to a staggering 10.9 points per game in '08 - the second-best mark in the country. Whether the Frogs can win their third MWC title will depend on the success of a frequently-stagnant offense - particularly junior QB Andy Dalton, who needs to improve consistency after completing under 60% of his passes last season. Oct. 24 in Provo will stand in the way of a MWC title - and a potential BCS bowl.
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
3. Utah - The Utes' impressive BCS runs of 2004 and 2008 have almost singlehandedly elevated the MWC to the title of "best non-BCS conference." Their defeat of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl sent shock waves throughout college football. Now, for an encore, the Utes attempt to replace 6 offensive starters lost from 2008, including MWC Offensive Player of the Year QB Brian Johnson. The good news is that the Utes' defense, which ranked 12th in the nation last year, returns 7 starters, including a stout linebacker corps led by Stevenson Sylvester. The unit will need to carry a young offense early in the season, especially on a Sept. 19 trip to Eugene to face Oregon. We should know by the end of that contest whether or not the Utes can repeat some of their 2008 magic.
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
4. Colorado State - For his debut, Steve Fairchild took a program that was fading under its legendary coach and led it to its first bowl victory in seven years. Not too shabby. Now, after losing All-MWC RB Gartrell Johnson (a fourth-round pick in April's NFL Draft) along with graduated QB Billy Farris, Fairchild will try to prove that '08 was no fluke. The Rams boast the league's most experienced offensive line, led by Sr. OT Shelley Smith. Defensively, the Rams need a big year from Sr. SS Klint Kubiak, who has battled injuries throughout his time in Fort Collins. A second consecutive bowl is a legitimate possibility for the Rams, but it won't be as easy this time around. Luckily, the Rams have a relatively manageable schedule.
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
5. Air Force - Things started getting interesting in Colorado Springs when 2008 MWC Freshman of the Year Tim Jefferson began struggling with academics in the Spring. Assuming Jefferson stays eligible, the Falcons should be in line for a third consecutive bowl game. So. RB Asher Clark also returns for an option threat that continues to give opponents fits. The question is whether Air Force can remain consistent for an entire 12-game season. The Falcons started 8-2 in '08, only to lose their final three games, including the Armed Forces Bowl against Houston. Still, Air Force should remain one of the better under-the-radar programs in America.
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
6. UNLV - Ladies and gentleman, I present to you the MWC "Sleeper of the Year." Everyone seems to be jumping on the Rebels' bandwagon. My friend Mike thinks they might win a BCS bowl. Seriously. With junior QB Omar Clayton and SR WR Ryan Wolfe leading a potentially explosive offensive attack, it's easy to understand the sentiment. But UNLV hasn't' won more than 5 games since 2003. What's worse, despite finishing a respectable 5-7, the Rebels allowed 32.6 points per game last season - 32.6 points!! Also, UNLV loses RB "Frank-the-Tank" Summers, who took a ton of pressure off Clayton and the pass offense in '08. Sleepers, maybe, but in Vegas it's always a roll of the dice with this team. Write that down.
Record: 5-7 (3-5)
7. New Mexico - Welcome to Albuquerque, Mike Locksley. Your task is simple: improve upon fired coach Rocky Long's 43-31 record and 5 bowl games since 2001. Um... stil not quite sure why Long was fired, but I'm not holding my breath for any shocking rise to BCS contention anytime soon. The Lobos do return Sr. DB Clint McPeek, who ranked sixth in the MWC last year with 103 total tackles. So... that's good, right?
Record: 4-8 (2-6)
8. Wyoming - Well, as they say, "go big or go home," right? The Cowboys and their new coach, Dave Christensen, are certainly doing that in 2009. Wyo brings some program called "Texas" into Laramie in Week 2. After that expected beat-down, the 'Pokes head to Boulder to face another Big 12 team in Colorado. By the time they get to the MWC schedule, the Cowboys may have little confidence left.
Record: 2-10 (1-7)
9. San Diego State - SDSU has become one of the country's biggest quagmires. Why can a program - in this large of a city, with this much surrounding talent, and that beautiful of a campus - not consistently compete in football? The latest employed to figure that one out is former Ball State coach Brady Hoke. Hoke will attempt to build around QB Ryan Lindley, who threw for 16 TD's and 9 INT's last year as a freshman.
Record: 2-10 (1-7)
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