I am not an NBA fan. This morning, the reasons for that fact have never rung truer.
The NBA is a sport to celebrate the individual star.
The NBA is a sport full of selfish, self-promoting egotists.
The NBA is no longer about building a team, but rather collecting the most superstars.
The NBA is the only sport that could produce the kind of marketing show that Lebron James put on in Connecticut last night.
And while everyone today searches for a villain - Lebron, Dan Gilbert, ESPN, the collective media, the American sports fan, etc. - I can find one person to point most of the blame at:
Michael Jordan.
Now, don't get me wrong. I don't think MJ intentionally created the circus we know today as the NBA. I think he was the greatest player in NBA history who saved the league and made basketball a worldwide phenomenon for the first time.
But just as MJ saved the game, he simultaneously ruined it. Hear me out.
Jordan was known for his incredible individual skill. Sure, there had been great players (Magic, Bird, Dr. J., Kareem, and so on) before, but none had been so impressive to watch by himself in NBA history.
The dunks, the jumpers, the cross-over dribbles, the fist-pumps, the tongue... it was unlike anything we'd ever seen before. And with a growing sports media - more cameras, more TV stations, more magazines - we ate it up.
And seemingly overnight, the game of basketball was changed forever. Every NBA franchise began searching high-and-low for "The Next Jordan." Teams were built around marketable superstars, rather than championship-minded squads.
Penny. Shaq. McGrady. Kobe. Melo. Lebron.
While my dad's generation grew up on pick-up games, getting a group of guys together to play at the gym, my generation grew up with one-on-one games in the driveway, dunk contests and an ever-present dream to "Be Like Mike."
Even our video games changed. For example, the most popular basketball game for Super Nintendo at the time was "NBA Jams," where you played 2-on-2 basketball, complete with high-flying dunks and the ability to "catch fire" if you made enough shots in a row.
And as big as the changes were within the sport, they were even bigger away from it. Jordan became larger than life phenomenon off of the court. He was a marketing dream - and the world bowed before him to buy his shoes, his sports drink, his jerseys.
Nike became the dominant sports apparel company in the world. "Just Do It" and swooshes were on every kid's backpacks and t-shirts in America. The Air Jordan saga proved that one, ultra-talented player could be bigger than his team, bigger than the league, bigger than the game itself.
And thus was born the sports world we live in today. And, truthfully, it's not just found in the NBA.
We live in a world where Tiger Woods can be the most powerful advertising tool on the planet. A world where a football player's Twitter account can have nearly a million followers. A world where one baseball player can earn over $45,000 per at-bat. A world where the big stars get paid more to tell people what car to drive than they do to actually play their sport.
Clearly it isn't just the NBA that has been infected by this media-crazed, cash-infused philosophy, but I believe the NBA has certainly become the worst.
Can you imagine Albert Pujols holding a similar press conference to announce his new deal with the Cardinals? Or Peyton Manning being covered for an entire four-hour period on ESPN? In the off-season?
I can't. At least not yet.
But in the NBA, the individual can be bigger than the team, bigger than the league, bigger than the game.
It all started with MJ. Where will it end?
Friday, July 9, 2010
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Just Happy to Be There: Why the Saints will lose Super Bowl XLIV
I really want to root for the Saints this Sunday.
How could I not? They've got a blue-collar, likable quarterback in Drew Brees.
They have a (truly) rags-to-riches story - the city of New Orleans needs a Super Bowl title worse than probably any other NFL hub.
They are the most entertaining team to watch since Kurt Warner's "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams.
I really do want the Saints to win.
But they won't.
And the person I have to blame for bringing me to this sad but true realization is my friend Mike Donovan.
Just days following the Saints' victory over the Vikings in the NFC championship, Mike pointed out that the Saints seemed to have gone into party mode.
For example, the day after their historic win, interviews with players revealed a team that had celebrated the night before like they had just won the Super Bowl, not simply made it there.
And who could blame them, right? New Orleans had never been to the big game before. And now here they were, on the shoulders of a talented and easy-to-root-for team, headed to Miami to play for sports' biggest crown.
It was a celebration long overdue, and the Saints (understandably) were not going to miss their opportunity.
But the Indianapolis Colts' reaction to their second AFC title in four years could not have been any different. They seemed business-like, calm and immediately focused on the next task at hand.
Do you think Peyton Manning went out and partied all night in Indianapolis after the team got past the New York Jets?
No, though Manning probably was up all night - watching film.
And it's likely that most of the Colts players were already turning their focus to the Saints, instead of relishing the accomplishment of simply getting there.
The Colts mantra has seems to be: been there, done that.
Meanwhile, the Saints appear to be the "happy to be there" team. They've been craving a Super Bowl so long, that just getting there might seem almost as significant as actually winning the game.
And, as he usually does, my friend Mike found copious amounts of statistics to back up his point.
He researched all of the Happy To Be There (HTBT) teams to play in the Super Bowl in the last 30 years. "HTBT" is loosely defined as a team that had either never been to a Super Bowl or had made it following an extended drought.
Below are the statistics Mike found from such games. Teams in bold are the "Happy To Be There" teams. Following the teams/scores is the result of the game for HTBT team, as well as whether the HTBT team covered the final Las Vegas point spread.
Take a look:
Happy to be there Super Bowls since 1980 (HTBT in Bold):
How could I not? They've got a blue-collar, likable quarterback in Drew Brees.
They have a (truly) rags-to-riches story - the city of New Orleans needs a Super Bowl title worse than probably any other NFL hub.
They are the most entertaining team to watch since Kurt Warner's "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams.
I really do want the Saints to win.
But they won't.
And the person I have to blame for bringing me to this sad but true realization is my friend Mike Donovan.
Just days following the Saints' victory over the Vikings in the NFC championship, Mike pointed out that the Saints seemed to have gone into party mode.
For example, the day after their historic win, interviews with players revealed a team that had celebrated the night before like they had just won the Super Bowl, not simply made it there.
And who could blame them, right? New Orleans had never been to the big game before. And now here they were, on the shoulders of a talented and easy-to-root-for team, headed to Miami to play for sports' biggest crown.
It was a celebration long overdue, and the Saints (understandably) were not going to miss their opportunity.
But the Indianapolis Colts' reaction to their second AFC title in four years could not have been any different. They seemed business-like, calm and immediately focused on the next task at hand.
Do you think Peyton Manning went out and partied all night in Indianapolis after the team got past the New York Jets?
No, though Manning probably was up all night - watching film.
And it's likely that most of the Colts players were already turning their focus to the Saints, instead of relishing the accomplishment of simply getting there.
The Colts mantra has seems to be: been there, done that.
Meanwhile, the Saints appear to be the "happy to be there" team. They've been craving a Super Bowl so long, that just getting there might seem almost as significant as actually winning the game.
And, as he usually does, my friend Mike found copious amounts of statistics to back up his point.
He researched all of the Happy To Be There (HTBT) teams to play in the Super Bowl in the last 30 years. "HTBT" is loosely defined as a team that had either never been to a Super Bowl or had made it following an extended drought.
Below are the statistics Mike found from such games. Teams in bold are the "Happy To Be There" teams. Following the teams/scores is the result of the game for HTBT team, as well as whether the HTBT team covered the final Las Vegas point spread.
Take a look:
Happy to be there Super Bowls since 1980 (HTBT in Bold):
2009- Steelers (-7) 27, Cardinals 23 Loss, Cover
2006- Steelers (-4) 21, Seahawks 10 Loss, No cover
2004- Patriots (-7) 32, Panthers 29 Loss, Cover
2003- Buccaneers (+4) 48, Raiders 21 Both teams happy to be there
2002- Patriots (+14) 20, Rams 17 Win, Cover
2000- Rams (-7) 23, Titans 16 Both teams happy to be there
1999- Broncos (-4.5) 34, Falcons 19 Loss, No cover
1997- Packers (-14.5) 35, Patriots 21 Loss, Cover
1996- Cowboys (-13.5) 27, Steelers 17 Loss, Cover
1995- 49ers (-18.5) 49, Chargers 26 Loss, no cover
1989- 49ers (-7) 20, Bengals 16 Loss, Cover
1987- Giants (-9.5) 39, Broncos 20 Loss, No cover
1986- Bears (-10) 46, Patriots 10 Loss, no cover
1982- 49ers (-1) 26, Bengals 21 Both teams happy to be there
1981- Raiders (+3) 27, Eagles 10 Loss, No cover
1980- Steelers (-11.5) 31, Rams 19 Loss, No cover
Totals:
- HTBT Teams are 4-15 overall and 1-12 against non-HTBT teams.
- All 13 games against non-HTBT teams came against opponents who had won a Super Bowl in the previous five years.
- HTBT Teams are 6-7 Against the Spread (ATS), however, 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
So, history tells us that HTBT teams struggle mightily against non-HTBT teams in the Super Bowl, especially when the non-HTBT team has recently won a title themselves (like this year's Colts).
However, the trend is that HTBT teams do keep the games close, covering the spread in six of the last nine Super Bowls.
So, what does all of this mean? I'll tell you:
Colts 34, Saints 31
It will be close. It will be high-scoring. It will be a great game.
But in the end, the Colts will be more prepared, more focused and (as strange as it sounds) more motivated.
Because, if answering honestly, I'm not sure any of the Saints players would tell you that losing Super Bowl XLIV would make the 2009-10 season a disappointment.
But for a guy like Peyton Manning, anything less than another Super Bowl title equals complete failure.
The Saints are just happy to be there. Which is exactly why they won't be the happy ones Sunday night in Miami.
*Note: All stats provided by Mike Donovan, sports researcher extraordinaire, February, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010
Dillon Brothers Debate: NFL Conference Championships, etc.
Jeff says:
J
E
T
S
JETS
JETS
JETS
Jameson says:
lol
Jeff says:
i'm on the bandwagon man
i'm on the bandwagon like Poland rooting for the U.S. in WWII
Jameson says:
like d-bags for Philip Rivers
bro they're going to get pummeled next week
Jeff says:
nah dude i've got them going to to Super Bowl!
Jets-Saints baby
for three reasons:
1. Mark Sanchez
2. it makes the least amount of sense, and that's like NFL policy now
3. it's the least appealing match-up, which Super Bowls always are
Jets-Saints write it down
Jameson says:
no way here's why
1. If Nate Kaeding doesn't miss 3 field goals, the Jets lose that game
2. If it's 13-0 at half instead of 7-0, psychologically there is no way the Jets come back and they would have had to ask Marky Mark to throw more and there would have been more picks down just 7-0, they were able to stay with the gameplan
3. Peyton Manning will not be held to 7 points in a half
4. The Jets will have to score 20 plus to win
5. Norv Turner will not be involved
Jeff says:
really?
did you see the Colts offense on Saturday??
Jameson says:
yeah
Jeff says:
they were horrible
absolutely shut down by Baltimore
and the Jets D is statistically better in almost every category than the Ravens'
Jameson says:
yeah but the Chargers ran on first down way to much and ended up in 3rd and long situations the whole game which is exactly what the Jets wanted
the Colts will attack them in first down
and did you see how wide open Gates was all game?
Dallas Clark is going to have a field day
Jeff says:
is that why they held the starters to just 15 points when they beat them in Dec?
even before they pulled their starters the jets were containing the Colts
and Clark your boy had 57 yards, no TD's
plus since the Denver game the Colts have not been on at all
the Jets just dominated the hottest team in football in San Diego
they can't be stopped!
Jameson says:
ok let's look at that first game
the Colts were up 10-3 before Brad Smith an back a kickoff return
Then they were up 15-10 when they pulled the starters
the Jets proceeded to get a defensive TD because Painter sucked
Then Marky Mark only got 10 points off the Colts 2nd string defense
So...you take out the defensive TD and the kickoff return and the Jets only scored 13 points
not enough to win on Sunday
Jeff says:
lol but that's like saying "take away its engine and its wheels and a mustang is really just a piece of scrap metal"
the Jets ARE their defense/special teams
that's what they win on
13 offensive points Sunday wins
Jameson says:
no, they didn't need to score a defensive TD or special teams TD Sunday because Nate Kaeding sucked
Jeff says:
well i would argue their second TD Sunday was a defensive TD wouldn't' you?
Jameson says:
true
Jeff says:
i understand that every sane, rational person will pick the Colts
but that's exactly why i'm picking the jets
Jameson says:
you're insane and irrational?
Jeff says:
yes, but also because it's the NFL, and that's what happens in the NFL
plus... I LOVE THE JETS!
Rex Ryan was right - they should be favored in every game they play
Jameson says:
no way bro
Jeff says:
lol idk man answer me this...
do you think Kevin will be a good Commish of the baseball league?
wait, no i mean
did you think the Ravens had a shot to win Saturday?
Jameson says:
I did, but upon further review, Joe Flacco had been so bad that I totally overestimated their chances against the best team in the NFL
wait a minute sounds like someone else
Jeff says:
my fantasy team?
Jameson says:
no the Jets. and your fantasy team.
Jeff says:
yeah but Flacco completed four passes last week against the Pats yet you overlooked that because
A. they had Ray Rice and
B. their defense was dominant right?
Jameson says:
yeah, I think Rex and Brian have a done a fantastic job calling plays for Sanchez
but look at his yardage the last two weeks it's terrible
Jeff says:
yeah but it's still like 400% better than Flacco's
Jameson says:
and you take away that one long run from Greene Sunday and they score 10 pts mostly due to field position their D gave them
Jeff says:
right, but that's my point
you gave Baltimore a chance because they're Baltimore and they win games ugly even if their QB is average
but you won't give the same credit to the Jets
Jameson says:
and I was wrong, so I wont make that mistake again
I think the Colts will win the Super Bowl
and I think when we look back we'll all wonder why we didn't recognize how great they were because they rested their starters for those two weeks
like when Denver lost two straight in 1998 going into the playoffs
everyone forgot we were 14-0!!!!!!
Jeff says:
yeah
Jameson says:
then we cruised through the playoffs (including the Jets) and killed the Falcons in the playoffs
and looking back they were probably one of the best teams of the decade
Jeff says:
so... Colts-Falcons SB?
Jameson says:
I think so
Jeff says:
Jamaal Anderson back in at RB? Dirty Birds?
Jameson says:
I really like Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan actually threw for more yards yesterday than Sanchez
Jeff says:
lol
idk why you're hating on Mark
and besides, this Colts team is not the 1998 Broncos
their QB is not as good
their O-line isn't as good
they don't have a RB even close to T.D.
they aren't as healthy (their best defensive player, Bob Sanders, is out)
and their head coach literally gets his play calls from Tecmo Bowl
so i don't buy the Denver comparison - maybe with the saints, but not the colts
Jameson says:
fair enough
Jeff says:
either way you've got to pick away from whatever seems most likely in the NFL these days
i literally thought about it, decided Colts-Vikings seemed like clearly the best choices to win this week
so that settled it, i'm picking Jets-Saints
plus, I might have mentioned, I love the Jets
Jameson says:
what do you think about the Saints-Vikings game? will it be close?
Jeff says:
yeah that's tough... i'm not sure cause i do think the Vikes defense will challenge Brees and Co. but the Vikes are terrible on the road
Jameson says:
it kinda reminds me of the Falcons/Vikings game from 1999
when Andersen missed the kick
only the Vikings are the Falcons this time
the favorite had a high flying pass offense the Falcons had an old QB who could make plays but had a great run game
but I think I'll go with the Saints
Jeff says:
wait, so the Vikings are like the old Falcons
and the Saints like the old Vikings
which you didn't like the old Vikings
but you do like the new Vikings
so you're going with the old Vikings over the new Vikings?
so... the Saints?
Jameson says:
yeah old Vikings
the old Vikings should have won that game with that field goal
so the Saints will win on a last second field goal
or just blow the Vikings out
either way, I'm going with my boy Brees
Jeff says:
alright
Jameson says:
but yeah I think Kevin will be fine
Jeff says:
haha
J
E
T
S
JETS
JETS
JETS
Jameson says:
lol
Jeff says:
i'm on the bandwagon man
i'm on the bandwagon like Poland rooting for the U.S. in WWII
Jameson says:
like d-bags for Philip Rivers
bro they're going to get pummeled next week
Jeff says:
nah dude i've got them going to to Super Bowl!
Jets-Saints baby
for three reasons:
1. Mark Sanchez
2. it makes the least amount of sense, and that's like NFL policy now
3. it's the least appealing match-up, which Super Bowls always are
Jets-Saints write it down
Jameson says:
no way here's why
1. If Nate Kaeding doesn't miss 3 field goals, the Jets lose that game
2. If it's 13-0 at half instead of 7-0, psychologically there is no way the Jets come back and they would have had to ask Marky Mark to throw more and there would have been more picks down just 7-0, they were able to stay with the gameplan
3. Peyton Manning will not be held to 7 points in a half
4. The Jets will have to score 20 plus to win
5. Norv Turner will not be involved
Jeff says:
really?
did you see the Colts offense on Saturday??
Jameson says:
yeah
Jeff says:
they were horrible
absolutely shut down by Baltimore
and the Jets D is statistically better in almost every category than the Ravens'
Jameson says:
yeah but the Chargers ran on first down way to much and ended up in 3rd and long situations the whole game which is exactly what the Jets wanted
the Colts will attack them in first down
and did you see how wide open Gates was all game?
Dallas Clark is going to have a field day
Jeff says:
is that why they held the starters to just 15 points when they beat them in Dec?
even before they pulled their starters the jets were containing the Colts
and Clark your boy had 57 yards, no TD's
plus since the Denver game the Colts have not been on at all
the Jets just dominated the hottest team in football in San Diego
they can't be stopped!
Jameson says:
ok let's look at that first game
the Colts were up 10-3 before Brad Smith an back a kickoff return
Then they were up 15-10 when they pulled the starters
the Jets proceeded to get a defensive TD because Painter sucked
Then Marky Mark only got 10 points off the Colts 2nd string defense
So...you take out the defensive TD and the kickoff return and the Jets only scored 13 points
not enough to win on Sunday
Jeff says:
lol but that's like saying "take away its engine and its wheels and a mustang is really just a piece of scrap metal"
the Jets ARE their defense/special teams
that's what they win on
13 offensive points Sunday wins
Jameson says:
no, they didn't need to score a defensive TD or special teams TD Sunday because Nate Kaeding sucked
Jeff says:
well i would argue their second TD Sunday was a defensive TD wouldn't' you?
Jameson says:
true
Jeff says:
i understand that every sane, rational person will pick the Colts
but that's exactly why i'm picking the jets
Jameson says:
you're insane and irrational?
Jeff says:
yes, but also because it's the NFL, and that's what happens in the NFL
plus... I LOVE THE JETS!
Rex Ryan was right - they should be favored in every game they play
Jameson says:
no way bro
Jeff says:
lol idk man answer me this...
do you think Kevin will be a good Commish of the baseball league?
wait, no i mean
did you think the Ravens had a shot to win Saturday?
Jameson says:
I did, but upon further review, Joe Flacco had been so bad that I totally overestimated their chances against the best team in the NFL
wait a minute sounds like someone else
Jeff says:
my fantasy team?
Jameson says:
no the Jets. and your fantasy team.
Jeff says:
yeah but Flacco completed four passes last week against the Pats yet you overlooked that because
A. they had Ray Rice and
B. their defense was dominant right?
Jameson says:
yeah, I think Rex and Brian have a done a fantastic job calling plays for Sanchez
but look at his yardage the last two weeks it's terrible
Jeff says:
yeah but it's still like 400% better than Flacco's
Jameson says:
and you take away that one long run from Greene Sunday and they score 10 pts mostly due to field position their D gave them
Jeff says:
right, but that's my point
you gave Baltimore a chance because they're Baltimore and they win games ugly even if their QB is average
but you won't give the same credit to the Jets
Jameson says:
and I was wrong, so I wont make that mistake again
I think the Colts will win the Super Bowl
and I think when we look back we'll all wonder why we didn't recognize how great they were because they rested their starters for those two weeks
like when Denver lost two straight in 1998 going into the playoffs
everyone forgot we were 14-0!!!!!!
Jeff says:
yeah
Jameson says:
then we cruised through the playoffs (including the Jets) and killed the Falcons in the playoffs
and looking back they were probably one of the best teams of the decade
Jeff says:
so... Colts-Falcons SB?
Jameson says:
I think so
Jeff says:
Jamaal Anderson back in at RB? Dirty Birds?
Jameson says:
I really like Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan actually threw for more yards yesterday than Sanchez
Jeff says:
lol
idk why you're hating on Mark
and besides, this Colts team is not the 1998 Broncos
their QB is not as good
their O-line isn't as good
they don't have a RB even close to T.D.
they aren't as healthy (their best defensive player, Bob Sanders, is out)
and their head coach literally gets his play calls from Tecmo Bowl
so i don't buy the Denver comparison - maybe with the saints, but not the colts
Jameson says:
fair enough
Jeff says:
either way you've got to pick away from whatever seems most likely in the NFL these days
i literally thought about it, decided Colts-Vikings seemed like clearly the best choices to win this week
so that settled it, i'm picking Jets-Saints
plus, I might have mentioned, I love the Jets
Jameson says:
what do you think about the Saints-Vikings game? will it be close?
Jeff says:
yeah that's tough... i'm not sure cause i do think the Vikes defense will challenge Brees and Co. but the Vikes are terrible on the road
Jameson says:
it kinda reminds me of the Falcons/Vikings game from 1999
when Andersen missed the kick
only the Vikings are the Falcons this time
the favorite had a high flying pass offense the Falcons had an old QB who could make plays but had a great run game
but I think I'll go with the Saints
Jeff says:
wait, so the Vikings are like the old Falcons
and the Saints like the old Vikings
which you didn't like the old Vikings
but you do like the new Vikings
so you're going with the old Vikings over the new Vikings?
so... the Saints?
Jameson says:
yeah old Vikings
the old Vikings should have won that game with that field goal
so the Saints will win on a last second field goal
or just blow the Vikings out
either way, I'm going with my boy Brees
Jeff says:
alright
Jameson says:
but yeah I think Kevin will be fine
Jeff says:
haha
Thursday, September 17, 2009
College Football Weekend: Week 3 Preview & Predictions
Welcome to the Age of Parity in college football.
This is the era that will be written about years from now as the time when college football transformed from a top-heavy, dynasty-laden sport to one in which upsets rule and anybody really can beat anybody.
Remember the days when you could pencil in most of the top 25 for wins against any non-ranked opponent?
Remember the days when the athletes at big-time conferences were just too big and too physical for smaller schools to compete with?
Remember the days when you’d never even heard of Appalachian State?
Well those days are long gone, my friend. The new era of topsy-turvy, BCS-busting football has arrived.
For better or worse, we can no longer guarantee wins for top-flight teams against bottom-feeders – even within conferences. Take the SEC, for example. While the top teams (Florida, LSU) still dominate, have you noticed the strides made by once-defunct programs like Ole Miss and Vanderbilt?
Even FBS (formerly Division I) teams are in danger when playing FCS (formerly Division II) teams, these days. In the first two weeks of the 2009 season, four FBS teams have fallen to FCS opponents.
And the powerful BCS is looking less and less dominant, too. Last weekend alone, six BCS conference teams (Colorado, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Virginia, Washington State, Kansas State ) were upended by teams from non-BCS leagues (Toledo, Central Michigan, Houston, TCU, Hawaii, Louisiana-Lafayette, respectively).
And this, of course, was just a building block on top of what happened the previous weekend, when Boise State beat Pac-10 favorite Oregon and BYU stunned 3rd-ranked Oklahoma.
So, now that we’re all getting accustomed to such shock and awe on a weekly basis, there’s only one logical question: which teams will be victims of parity this week?
Could it be 8th-ranked Cal traveling to take on 2-0 Minnesota? Could it be 24th-ranked North Carolina, facing feisty Eastern Carolina at Chapel Hill? Could Toledo back up a dominant win over Colorado with a stunner over the Buckeyes?
And could Lane Kiffin’s young Tennessee Volunteers ride the upset wave and shock college football with a win in Gainesville over the Florida Gators?
Okay… maybe there’s not that much parity. But you get the point.
To week three we go…
Looking back (My Week Two Picks):
Overall: 8/13 (18/29 on the season)
Top Five: 3/5 (5/10 on the season)
Upset Special (UNLV over Oregon State): 0/1 (1/2 on the season)
Top five games to watch this weekend:
5. #3 USC at Washington (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Really? This game is a top five game to watch this weekend? Here’s why: USC is coming off an emotional, physical win over Ohio State last weekend, and a letdown seems likely. Secondly, the Trojans have been susceptible to losing to mediocre Pac-10 teams in recent years. And finally, don’t you think Steve Sarkisian, who came to Washington following eight years on the USC sidelines, would love to be the one to upend his former team’s title hopes?
No, I’m not saying the Huskies will win. I’m just saying it might be a lot closer than Vegas odds makers say it will. Keep an eye on this one.
Prediction: USC 38, Washington 27
4. Texas Tech at #2 Texas (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
You want points? This is your game to watch this weekend. Texas Tech averaged 44.6 points per game last season, fourth best in the nation. The Longhorns weren’t too bad either, averaging 43.9 points, just one spot below the Red Raiders in the national rankings.
Oh, and this one has a little bit of a storyline, too. Texas Tech (and Michael Crabtree’s legendary touchdown catch) was all that stood in the way of the Longhorns playing for a Big 12 and, potentially, national title last season. Colt and Co. want revenge.
Prediction: Texas 41, Texas Tech 24
3. Tennessee at #1 Florida (Sat. 3:30 EST, CBS):
Lane Kiffin, I feel bad for you. You provoked a sleeping giant with comments in the off-season, promising Vols fans a win over the mighty Gators. Then you accused Florida coach Urban Meyer of cheating on recruiting, though Meyer was later cleared of all wrongdoing. And now your young team, fresh off a home loss to UCLA, travels to Gainesville to take on arguably one of the best college football teams in history.
Let’s be clear: this one isn’t a game to watch because it will be close. Frankly, I’ll take Temple’s chances to beat Penn State at Happy Valley over the Vols’ chances in Gainesville. But this one will be fun to watch to see just how badly Meyer and his Gators run up the scoreboard on Kiffin. 50 points? 60? 70?
Prediction: Florida 58, Tennessee 16
2.# 14 Georgia Tech at #20 Miami (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
This week’s Thursday night match-up promises to be a dandy. Georgia Tech, which needed a late field goal to get past Clemson at home last week, lays its ACC title hopes on the line against a surprising Miami team, which got a week off following an impressive win over Florida State week one.
Miami has lost four consecutive games to Georgia Tech, and last year’s 41-23 loss in Atlanta was really never close. But this may be a new Miami team. If QB Jacory Harris plays as well as he did against the Seminoles, the Hurricanes absolutely can win this game.
Prediction: Miami 27, Georgia Tech 24
1. #19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
This game intrigues me for a lot of reasons. First, Virginia Tech is in need of an impressive win over a ranked opponent after an opening week loss to Alabama. Secondly, this game should show us just how good a 2-0 Nebraska team (whose wins are over Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State) really is.
Lastly, do you remember this game a season ago? The Huskers mounted a huge comeback late to make the game very interesting in Lincoln. This is a confident Nebraska team looking for its signature win. If the Hokies aren't careful, Saturday night may prove to be just that.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Nebraska 21
Upset Special:
Northwestern at Syracuse (Sat. 7:00 EST):
Hey, give the Orange some credit. Syracuse has opened its first season under new coach … with competitive losses against Minnesota (23-20 in OT) and Penn State (28-7 in Happy Valley). I know, only at Syracuse would anything called “competitive losses” be seen as a great thing. But the moral of the story is that the Orange is playing surprisingly well so far this year, and the squad is hungry (more like starving) for a win. Meanwhile, Northwestern comes off a less-than-stellar home win over Eastern Michigan. Hey, the Orange have to get a win sometime, right?
Prediction: Syracuse 20, Northwestern 19
For your viewing pleasure:
10 Boise State at Fresno State (Fri. 9:00 EST, ESPN): Boise State 30, Fresno State 23
8 California at Minnesota (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Cal 28, Minnesota 21
East Carolina at 24 North Carolina (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): North Carolina 26, ECU 14
Michigan State at Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 20
Tulsa at 12 Oklahoma (Sat. 3:30 EST, FSN): Oklahoma 35, Tulsa 24
18 Utah at Oregon (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Oregon 33, Utah 30
Arizona at Iowa (Sat. 3:35 EST, ABC): Iowa 21, Arizona 10
17 Cincinnati at Oregon State (Sat. 6:45 EST, FSN): Oregon State 31, Cincinnati 21
West Virginia at Auburn (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN2): Auburn 34, West Virginia 26
23 Georgia at Arkansas (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN): Georgia 27, Arkansas 22
Heisman Hunt:
Tim Tebow (QB – Florida)
Maybe this is a little too obvious, but the Gators are going to put up some serious points Saturday against Tennessee (3:30 EST, CBS). And if you haven’t noticed, Tebow is kind of one of the Gators’ star players. The Heisman contender is due a big breakout game, and he will have no more motivation to grind a team into the ground than this weekend in Gainesville. Look out, Lane Kiffin.
This is the era that will be written about years from now as the time when college football transformed from a top-heavy, dynasty-laden sport to one in which upsets rule and anybody really can beat anybody.
Remember the days when you could pencil in most of the top 25 for wins against any non-ranked opponent?
Remember the days when the athletes at big-time conferences were just too big and too physical for smaller schools to compete with?
Remember the days when you’d never even heard of Appalachian State?
Well those days are long gone, my friend. The new era of topsy-turvy, BCS-busting football has arrived.
For better or worse, we can no longer guarantee wins for top-flight teams against bottom-feeders – even within conferences. Take the SEC, for example. While the top teams (Florida, LSU) still dominate, have you noticed the strides made by once-defunct programs like Ole Miss and Vanderbilt?
Even FBS (formerly Division I) teams are in danger when playing FCS (formerly Division II) teams, these days. In the first two weeks of the 2009 season, four FBS teams have fallen to FCS opponents.
And the powerful BCS is looking less and less dominant, too. Last weekend alone, six BCS conference teams (Colorado, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Virginia, Washington State, Kansas State ) were upended by teams from non-BCS leagues (Toledo, Central Michigan, Houston, TCU, Hawaii, Louisiana-Lafayette, respectively).
And this, of course, was just a building block on top of what happened the previous weekend, when Boise State beat Pac-10 favorite Oregon and BYU stunned 3rd-ranked Oklahoma.
So, now that we’re all getting accustomed to such shock and awe on a weekly basis, there’s only one logical question: which teams will be victims of parity this week?
Could it be 8th-ranked Cal traveling to take on 2-0 Minnesota? Could it be 24th-ranked North Carolina, facing feisty Eastern Carolina at Chapel Hill? Could Toledo back up a dominant win over Colorado with a stunner over the Buckeyes?
And could Lane Kiffin’s young Tennessee Volunteers ride the upset wave and shock college football with a win in Gainesville over the Florida Gators?
Okay… maybe there’s not that much parity. But you get the point.
To week three we go…
Looking back (My Week Two Picks):
Overall: 8/13 (18/29 on the season)
Top Five: 3/5 (5/10 on the season)
Upset Special (UNLV over Oregon State): 0/1 (1/2 on the season)
Top five games to watch this weekend:
5. #3 USC at Washington (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Really? This game is a top five game to watch this weekend? Here’s why: USC is coming off an emotional, physical win over Ohio State last weekend, and a letdown seems likely. Secondly, the Trojans have been susceptible to losing to mediocre Pac-10 teams in recent years. And finally, don’t you think Steve Sarkisian, who came to Washington following eight years on the USC sidelines, would love to be the one to upend his former team’s title hopes?
No, I’m not saying the Huskies will win. I’m just saying it might be a lot closer than Vegas odds makers say it will. Keep an eye on this one.
Prediction: USC 38, Washington 27
4. Texas Tech at #2 Texas (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
You want points? This is your game to watch this weekend. Texas Tech averaged 44.6 points per game last season, fourth best in the nation. The Longhorns weren’t too bad either, averaging 43.9 points, just one spot below the Red Raiders in the national rankings.
Oh, and this one has a little bit of a storyline, too. Texas Tech (and Michael Crabtree’s legendary touchdown catch) was all that stood in the way of the Longhorns playing for a Big 12 and, potentially, national title last season. Colt and Co. want revenge.
Prediction: Texas 41, Texas Tech 24
3. Tennessee at #1 Florida (Sat. 3:30 EST, CBS):
Lane Kiffin, I feel bad for you. You provoked a sleeping giant with comments in the off-season, promising Vols fans a win over the mighty Gators. Then you accused Florida coach Urban Meyer of cheating on recruiting, though Meyer was later cleared of all wrongdoing. And now your young team, fresh off a home loss to UCLA, travels to Gainesville to take on arguably one of the best college football teams in history.
Let’s be clear: this one isn’t a game to watch because it will be close. Frankly, I’ll take Temple’s chances to beat Penn State at Happy Valley over the Vols’ chances in Gainesville. But this one will be fun to watch to see just how badly Meyer and his Gators run up the scoreboard on Kiffin. 50 points? 60? 70?
Prediction: Florida 58, Tennessee 16
2.# 14 Georgia Tech at #20 Miami (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
This week’s Thursday night match-up promises to be a dandy. Georgia Tech, which needed a late field goal to get past Clemson at home last week, lays its ACC title hopes on the line against a surprising Miami team, which got a week off following an impressive win over Florida State week one.
Miami has lost four consecutive games to Georgia Tech, and last year’s 41-23 loss in Atlanta was really never close. But this may be a new Miami team. If QB Jacory Harris plays as well as he did against the Seminoles, the Hurricanes absolutely can win this game.
Prediction: Miami 27, Georgia Tech 24
1. #19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
This game intrigues me for a lot of reasons. First, Virginia Tech is in need of an impressive win over a ranked opponent after an opening week loss to Alabama. Secondly, this game should show us just how good a 2-0 Nebraska team (whose wins are over Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State) really is.
Lastly, do you remember this game a season ago? The Huskers mounted a huge comeback late to make the game very interesting in Lincoln. This is a confident Nebraska team looking for its signature win. If the Hokies aren't careful, Saturday night may prove to be just that.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Nebraska 21
Upset Special:
Northwestern at Syracuse (Sat. 7:00 EST):
Hey, give the Orange some credit. Syracuse has opened its first season under new coach … with competitive losses against Minnesota (23-20 in OT) and Penn State (28-7 in Happy Valley). I know, only at Syracuse would anything called “competitive losses” be seen as a great thing. But the moral of the story is that the Orange is playing surprisingly well so far this year, and the squad is hungry (more like starving) for a win. Meanwhile, Northwestern comes off a less-than-stellar home win over Eastern Michigan. Hey, the Orange have to get a win sometime, right?
Prediction: Syracuse 20, Northwestern 19
For your viewing pleasure:
10 Boise State at Fresno State (Fri. 9:00 EST, ESPN): Boise State 30, Fresno State 23
8 California at Minnesota (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Cal 28, Minnesota 21
East Carolina at 24 North Carolina (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): North Carolina 26, ECU 14
Michigan State at Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 20
Tulsa at 12 Oklahoma (Sat. 3:30 EST, FSN): Oklahoma 35, Tulsa 24
18 Utah at Oregon (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Oregon 33, Utah 30
Arizona at Iowa (Sat. 3:35 EST, ABC): Iowa 21, Arizona 10
17 Cincinnati at Oregon State (Sat. 6:45 EST, FSN): Oregon State 31, Cincinnati 21
West Virginia at Auburn (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN2): Auburn 34, West Virginia 26
23 Georgia at Arkansas (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN): Georgia 27, Arkansas 22
Heisman Hunt:
Tim Tebow (QB – Florida)
Maybe this is a little too obvious, but the Gators are going to put up some serious points Saturday against Tennessee (3:30 EST, CBS). And if you haven’t noticed, Tebow is kind of one of the Gators’ star players. The Heisman contender is due a big breakout game, and he will have no more motivation to grind a team into the ground than this weekend in Gainesville. Look out, Lane Kiffin.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
College Football Weekend: Preview and Predictions (Week Two)
Well, College Football's 2009 season really started with a real punch.
I mean, a bang. Started with a bang.
The offseason was filled with so much hype for the coming college football season it seemed impossible that week one could actually live up to it. But, amazingly enough, it did.
From Boise State's upset on the blue turf to "The Punch" to Dez Bryant's ridiculous cathches to BYU's historic victory to Sam Bradford's shoulder to two blocked field goals in the final seconds of a game in Iowa... the 2009 campaign got off to a pretty fast start.
So, we should be all psyched up for week two, right? Another weekend jam-packed with hard-hitting rivalries, potential upsets and brewing rivalries?
Um...not so much.
Week two appears, on paper anyways, to be a bit of a letdown after the fireworks of opening weeeknd. Only one game pits two Top 25 opponents - USC vs. Ohio State. And while this battle in Columbus has been built up as one of the biggest games of the 2009 season, I'm not biting.
That's because I can clearly remember the beat-down USC laid on the Buckeyes just a season ago in Los Angeles. Sure, the Trojans may not be quite the team they were at this point in 2008, but the Buckeyes don't look like they've improved much themselves (especially after Saturday's scare against Navy).
But, rest assured college football fanatics, perhaps the greatest asset about this sport is its unpredictability. And there are plenty of games on the slate that could end up being season-altering moments.
So, while you get all fired up for what likely will be a two touchdown-plus USC win in Columbus Saturday night, keep a close eye on games like Notre Dame-Michigan, UCLA-Tennessee, South Carolina-Georgia, and Oregon State-UNLV, just to name a few.
Because, as we learned in week one, in college football, surprises can hit you like a punch to the head.
I mean punch to the gut.
Looking Back (How My Week One Picks Looked):
Overall: 10/16
Upset Special: 1/1 (Baylor over Wake Forest)
Five Games You Can't Miss this Weekend
5. Clemson at #15 Georgia Tech (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
Could the ACC have had a worse opening weekend? Virginia Tech loses the blockbuster matchup against Alabama. NC State lays an egg on opening night against South Carolina. Then Duke and Virginia go and lose to schools the size of some community colleges. Monday night's fantastic Florida State-Miami duel made up a bit for the awful weekend that preceded it, but it was still a rough, rough start.
Clemson and Georgia Tech now take the spotlight this week. This game could go a long way in determing the eventual conference champ. Look for Georgia Tech's rush offense to be a bit much for the Tigers' defense to handle.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 30, Clemson 17
4. South Carolina at #21 Georgia (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN2):
Lost in all the "Punch-gate" talk following Thursday night's games was the fact that South Carolina went into Raleigh and dominated a pretty good (or at least what we thought was a pretty good) N.C. State team. But Steve Spurrier's team still has some issues, they only put up 7 points after all, and they will get an even bigger bellweather test this weekend against Georgia.
The Bulldogs will be angry after last Saturday's loss at Oklahoma State. Can you imagine how upset they'd be if they dropped to 0-2 this weekend? The pressure is on.
Prediction: Georgia 26, South Carolina 14
3. UCLA at Tennessee (Sat. 4:00 EST, ESPN):
After UCLA took out full-page newspaper ads last summer featurning Rick Neuheisel announcing that the "football monopoly in L.A." was over, it seemed that there might never be a more brash (or unfounded) "hello" moment for a college football coach. Well, Rick Neuheisel, Lane Kiffin just made you look silly, didn't he?
Now the two coaches (loudly) attempting to get their programs back on top face off in what could be a season-defining game. UCLA may be the slightly better team on paper, but Tennessee is at home. And the Vols haven't forgot their loss at the Rose Bowl a year ago.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, UCLA 24
2. #18 Notre Dame at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Oooh, this one is just oozing with intrigue. Both Charlie Weis and Rich Rodriguez are sitting on seats that couldn't be any hotter, even after impressive opening week wins for both coach's squads. But, if anything, those wins raised expectations even more for this week.
If Notre Dame's defense plays the way it did last weekend against Nevada, the Wolverines will struggle mightily to move the ball on the Irish. Michigan's offense did look strong against Western Michigan last weekend, but that was Western Michigan. This is Notre Dame. In the Big House. With the coach's job on the line.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 23
1. #3 USC at #8 Ohio State (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
Yes, yes, this has to be the number one game to watch this weekend, if for no other reason than to see how badly the Trojans beat up on the Buckeyes. I know, Buckeye fan, I'm just a Big Ten hater and Navy is really that good and the Trojans are starting a true freshman at the Horseshoe. The fact of the matter is this: USC simply has better talent at almost every position on the field. Ohio State will keep this one close early, but it will be shades of 2008 by the end.
Prediction: USC 38, Ohio State 20
Upset Special
Oregon State at UNLV (Sat. 11:00 EST):
The Mountain West is slowly but surely putting a lot of pressure on the BCS big-wigs. After a BYU victory of Oklahoma last Saturday (and a dominant Colorado State win over Colorado), the conference has to be feeling pretty good about itself. Next up? A UNLV win over the Beavers of Oregon State. Call me crazy, but I think the Rebels are ready for their breakout from pretender to contender. UNLV went into Sun Devil stadium and beat a then-15th ranked Arizona State team early last season. This year, they get another Pac-10 contender at home.
Prediction: UNLV 34, Oregon State 30
For Your Viewing Pleasure
#19 North Carolina at Connecticut (Sat. Noon EST, ESPNU): North Carolina 27, UCONN 16
Central Michigan at Michigan State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): MSU 42, Cent. Mich. 21
Fresno State at Wisconsin (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Wisconsin 28, Fresno State 23
#9 BYU at Tulane (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2): BYU 45, Tulane 13
Vanderbilt at #11 LSU (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPNU): LSU 23, Vandy 10
Air Force at Minnesota (Sat. 7:00 EST, Big Ten Network): Air Force 30, Minnesota 27
Purdue at Oregon (Sat. 10:15 EST, FSN): Oregon 34, Purdue 14
Heisman Hunt
Max Hall (QB - BYU):
After leading the Cougars to week one's shocking upset of third-ranked Oklahoma, Hall gets his chance to break out statistically against the Green Wave (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2). Tulane allowed over 400 total yards against Tulsa in its opener. Think Hall might find a few holes in that defense?
I mean, a bang. Started with a bang.
The offseason was filled with so much hype for the coming college football season it seemed impossible that week one could actually live up to it. But, amazingly enough, it did.
From Boise State's upset on the blue turf to "The Punch" to Dez Bryant's ridiculous cathches to BYU's historic victory to Sam Bradford's shoulder to two blocked field goals in the final seconds of a game in Iowa... the 2009 campaign got off to a pretty fast start.
So, we should be all psyched up for week two, right? Another weekend jam-packed with hard-hitting rivalries, potential upsets and brewing rivalries?
Um...not so much.
Week two appears, on paper anyways, to be a bit of a letdown after the fireworks of opening weeeknd. Only one game pits two Top 25 opponents - USC vs. Ohio State. And while this battle in Columbus has been built up as one of the biggest games of the 2009 season, I'm not biting.
That's because I can clearly remember the beat-down USC laid on the Buckeyes just a season ago in Los Angeles. Sure, the Trojans may not be quite the team they were at this point in 2008, but the Buckeyes don't look like they've improved much themselves (especially after Saturday's scare against Navy).
But, rest assured college football fanatics, perhaps the greatest asset about this sport is its unpredictability. And there are plenty of games on the slate that could end up being season-altering moments.
So, while you get all fired up for what likely will be a two touchdown-plus USC win in Columbus Saturday night, keep a close eye on games like Notre Dame-Michigan, UCLA-Tennessee, South Carolina-Georgia, and Oregon State-UNLV, just to name a few.
Because, as we learned in week one, in college football, surprises can hit you like a punch to the head.
I mean punch to the gut.
Looking Back (How My Week One Picks Looked):
Overall: 10/16
Upset Special: 1/1 (Baylor over Wake Forest)
Five Games You Can't Miss this Weekend
5. Clemson at #15 Georgia Tech (Thurs. 7:30 EST, ESPN):
Could the ACC have had a worse opening weekend? Virginia Tech loses the blockbuster matchup against Alabama. NC State lays an egg on opening night against South Carolina. Then Duke and Virginia go and lose to schools the size of some community colleges. Monday night's fantastic Florida State-Miami duel made up a bit for the awful weekend that preceded it, but it was still a rough, rough start.
Clemson and Georgia Tech now take the spotlight this week. This game could go a long way in determing the eventual conference champ. Look for Georgia Tech's rush offense to be a bit much for the Tigers' defense to handle.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 30, Clemson 17
4. South Carolina at #21 Georgia (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN2):
Lost in all the "Punch-gate" talk following Thursday night's games was the fact that South Carolina went into Raleigh and dominated a pretty good (or at least what we thought was a pretty good) N.C. State team. But Steve Spurrier's team still has some issues, they only put up 7 points after all, and they will get an even bigger bellweather test this weekend against Georgia.
The Bulldogs will be angry after last Saturday's loss at Oklahoma State. Can you imagine how upset they'd be if they dropped to 0-2 this weekend? The pressure is on.
Prediction: Georgia 26, South Carolina 14
3. UCLA at Tennessee (Sat. 4:00 EST, ESPN):
After UCLA took out full-page newspaper ads last summer featurning Rick Neuheisel announcing that the "football monopoly in L.A." was over, it seemed that there might never be a more brash (or unfounded) "hello" moment for a college football coach. Well, Rick Neuheisel, Lane Kiffin just made you look silly, didn't he?
Now the two coaches (loudly) attempting to get their programs back on top face off in what could be a season-defining game. UCLA may be the slightly better team on paper, but Tennessee is at home. And the Vols haven't forgot their loss at the Rose Bowl a year ago.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, UCLA 24
2. #18 Notre Dame at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC):
Oooh, this one is just oozing with intrigue. Both Charlie Weis and Rich Rodriguez are sitting on seats that couldn't be any hotter, even after impressive opening week wins for both coach's squads. But, if anything, those wins raised expectations even more for this week.
If Notre Dame's defense plays the way it did last weekend against Nevada, the Wolverines will struggle mightily to move the ball on the Irish. Michigan's offense did look strong against Western Michigan last weekend, but that was Western Michigan. This is Notre Dame. In the Big House. With the coach's job on the line.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 23
1. #3 USC at #8 Ohio State (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC):
Yes, yes, this has to be the number one game to watch this weekend, if for no other reason than to see how badly the Trojans beat up on the Buckeyes. I know, Buckeye fan, I'm just a Big Ten hater and Navy is really that good and the Trojans are starting a true freshman at the Horseshoe. The fact of the matter is this: USC simply has better talent at almost every position on the field. Ohio State will keep this one close early, but it will be shades of 2008 by the end.
Prediction: USC 38, Ohio State 20
Upset Special
Oregon State at UNLV (Sat. 11:00 EST):
The Mountain West is slowly but surely putting a lot of pressure on the BCS big-wigs. After a BYU victory of Oklahoma last Saturday (and a dominant Colorado State win over Colorado), the conference has to be feeling pretty good about itself. Next up? A UNLV win over the Beavers of Oregon State. Call me crazy, but I think the Rebels are ready for their breakout from pretender to contender. UNLV went into Sun Devil stadium and beat a then-15th ranked Arizona State team early last season. This year, they get another Pac-10 contender at home.
Prediction: UNLV 34, Oregon State 30
For Your Viewing Pleasure
#19 North Carolina at Connecticut (Sat. Noon EST, ESPNU): North Carolina 27, UCONN 16
Central Michigan at Michigan State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): MSU 42, Cent. Mich. 21
Fresno State at Wisconsin (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Wisconsin 28, Fresno State 23
#9 BYU at Tulane (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2): BYU 45, Tulane 13
Vanderbilt at #11 LSU (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPNU): LSU 23, Vandy 10
Air Force at Minnesota (Sat. 7:00 EST, Big Ten Network): Air Force 30, Minnesota 27
Purdue at Oregon (Sat. 10:15 EST, FSN): Oregon 34, Purdue 14
Heisman Hunt
Max Hall (QB - BYU):
After leading the Cougars to week one's shocking upset of third-ranked Oklahoma, Hall gets his chance to break out statistically against the Green Wave (Sat. 3:30 EST, ESPN2). Tulane allowed over 400 total yards against Tulsa in its opener. Think Hall might find a few holes in that defense?
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
College Football Weekend: Preview and Predictions (Week 1)
Go big or go home.
That might as well be the motto this weekend for a pair of non-BCS teams looking to make big statements against Top 25 opponents.
First, on Thursday night, 14th-ranked Boise State gets a shot at No. 16 Oregon in what likely will be the Broncos' biggest game of the season.
Then, on Saturday, No. 25 Brigham Young travels to Arlington to face No. 3 Oklahoma, the defending national runner-up.
Nothing like starting your season off with a bang, huh?
Boise State and BYU are among the nation's top threats to the BCS system in 2009. If either team wants to carry the banner for the anti-BCS crowd, they most likely have to win this weekend.
Five Games You Can't Miss This Weekend:
5. South Carolina at NC State (Thurs. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is a must-watch game for several reasons. Not only will the Wolfpack be looking for revenge after last seasons 34-0 drubbing at the hands of Steve Spurrier's squad, but this game will also go a long way in determining whether they can compete for an ACC title this year. Plus, this is the first nationally-televised game of the season, so you know you have to watch. Oh, and it's also the return of Erin Andrews to the sideline following Videogate.
4. #20 BYU at #3 Oklahoma (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is clearly a huge game for the Cougars, but it's a big one for the Sooners, too. Lose here, and OU will need an undefeated run through the loaded Big 12 just to have a shot at playing for the title a second straight year. Max Hall will present an early challenge for Bob Stoops' defensive unit that allowed 251.5 passing yards per game a season ago. This one may be a lot closer than you think.
3. #13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC)
There are few teams in the county receiving as much bandwagon-love as the Cowboys, who enter 2009 as the top sleeper pick in the loaded Big 12 South. But before Mike Gundy's boys get to the Big 12, they first need to worry about one of the power programs of the SEC. The Bulldogs lost star QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno to the NFL, but this team is still loaded with talent. If the Cowboys are for real, we'll know after this one.
2. #16 Oregon at #14 Boise State (Thurs. 10:15 EST, ESPN)
Why is this game (No. 16 vs. No. 14) ranked ahead of Georgia-OSU (No. 13 vs. No. 9)? Simple: this one has immediate BCS implications. Boise State "should" win every other game on its schedule this year. So, if they win Thursday night, look out, BCS-backers, the Broncos are your best bet to be this year's Utah. Oregon, meanwhile, wants to make up for last year's loss to the Broncos in Eugene, as well as send a statement to the rest of the country that they are a national title contender, too.
Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon 31
1. #5 Alabama at #7 Virginia Tech (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC)
Is there any doubt about this one? Rarely do we see a game with this many national implications this early in the season. Both of these teams expect big things in 2009, but both have unresolved issues. For the Tide, it's whether an offense that lost seven starters will respond effectively. Meanwhile, the Hokies have injuries galore at running back. Both of these teams have a chance to be great - BCS title great - in 2009. But for whoever loses Saturday night, that chance is most likely all but gone.
Upset Special of the Week:
Baylor at Wake Forest (Sat. 3:30 EST)
No, this isn't that big of an upset. The Deacons are only five-point favorites at home, after all. But this is a key game because I expect the Bears to beat Wake handily - I'm talking two touchdowns-plus handily. Baylor has all the pieces to have a breakout season, and this road win will be the Bears' coming-out party.
Prediction: Baylor 34, Wake Forest: 17
For Your Viewing Pleasure (Other Notable Televised Games):
Navy at #6 Ohio State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Ohio State 38, Navy 20
Minnesota at Syracuse (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): Minnesota 27, Syracuse 19
Nevada at #23 Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Notre Dame 27, Nevada 24
Western Michigan at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC): Michigan 24, Western Michigan 17
Missouri at Illinois (Sat. 3:40 EST, ESPN): Illinois 33, Missouri 31
Maryland at #12 California (10:00 EST, ESPN2): Cal 42, Maryland 16
#11 LSU at Washington (Sat. 10:30 EST, ESPN): LSU 38, Washington 17
Ole Miss at Memphis (Sun. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Ole Miss 30, Memphis 14
Cincinnati at Rutgers (Mon. 4:00 EST, ESPN): Rutgers 21, Cincinnati 7
Miami at #18 Florida State (Mon. 8:00 EST, ESPN): FSU 28, Miami 16
Heisman Hunt (Player Performance to Watch):
Jahvid Best (RB - Cal): Best will launch his Heisman candidacy Saturday (10:00 EST, ESPN2) against a Maryland team that ranked 71st in the country last season against the run. Best was held to just 90 total yards in last season's 35-27 loss at Maryland. Both the Bears and Best will be looking for revenge this weekend.
Enjoy opening weekend, college football fans...
That might as well be the motto this weekend for a pair of non-BCS teams looking to make big statements against Top 25 opponents.
First, on Thursday night, 14th-ranked Boise State gets a shot at No. 16 Oregon in what likely will be the Broncos' biggest game of the season.
Then, on Saturday, No. 25 Brigham Young travels to Arlington to face No. 3 Oklahoma, the defending national runner-up.
Nothing like starting your season off with a bang, huh?
Boise State and BYU are among the nation's top threats to the BCS system in 2009. If either team wants to carry the banner for the anti-BCS crowd, they most likely have to win this weekend.
The Broncos don't face another team likely to be ranked the rest of the season, meaning one loss (even against a quality Oregon team) would derail any BCS thoughts.
And the Cougars, though they face fellow BCS-busters TCU and Utah, would need to run the table in impressive fashion to convince voters to put an 11-1 non-BCS team in position for a BCS bowl.
So, what happens if Boise State and BYU lose this weekend? Well, to put it mildly, the fans of BCS schools nationwide (not to mention their BCS league commissioners) will point their fingers and say "See, we knew they couldn't compete with the big boys."
But if one (or both) wins... look out. Both teams have legitimate shots to run the table the rest of the way and qualify for one of college football's biggest bowls. Factor in possible runs by TCU and Utah (and maybe Nevada), and you could have yourself a college football season of madness.
For the Broncos and the Cougars, their greatest tests come on opening weekend. By Saturday night, we will know whether either team can be this year's mid-major darling or whether they will be relegated to competing for a conference crown and a mid-level bowl.
No pressure or anything.
Five Games You Can't Miss This Weekend:
5. South Carolina at NC State (Thurs. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is a must-watch game for several reasons. Not only will the Wolfpack be looking for revenge after last seasons 34-0 drubbing at the hands of Steve Spurrier's squad, but this game will also go a long way in determining whether they can compete for an ACC title this year. Plus, this is the first nationally-televised game of the season, so you know you have to watch. Oh, and it's also the return of Erin Andrews to the sideline following Videogate.
Prediction: NC State 27, South Carolina 16
4. #20 BYU at #3 Oklahoma (Sat. 7:00 EST, ESPN)
This is clearly a huge game for the Cougars, but it's a big one for the Sooners, too. Lose here, and OU will need an undefeated run through the loaded Big 12 just to have a shot at playing for the title a second straight year. Max Hall will present an early challenge for Bob Stoops' defensive unit that allowed 251.5 passing yards per game a season ago. This one may be a lot closer than you think.
Prediction: Oklahoma 35, BYU 27
3. #13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC)
There are few teams in the county receiving as much bandwagon-love as the Cowboys, who enter 2009 as the top sleeper pick in the loaded Big 12 South. But before Mike Gundy's boys get to the Big 12, they first need to worry about one of the power programs of the SEC. The Bulldogs lost star QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno to the NFL, but this team is still loaded with talent. If the Cowboys are for real, we'll know after this one.
Prediction: OSU 37, Georgia 23
2. #16 Oregon at #14 Boise State (Thurs. 10:15 EST, ESPN)
Why is this game (No. 16 vs. No. 14) ranked ahead of Georgia-OSU (No. 13 vs. No. 9)? Simple: this one has immediate BCS implications. Boise State "should" win every other game on its schedule this year. So, if they win Thursday night, look out, BCS-backers, the Broncos are your best bet to be this year's Utah. Oregon, meanwhile, wants to make up for last year's loss to the Broncos in Eugene, as well as send a statement to the rest of the country that they are a national title contender, too.
Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon 31
1. #5 Alabama at #7 Virginia Tech (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC)
Is there any doubt about this one? Rarely do we see a game with this many national implications this early in the season. Both of these teams expect big things in 2009, but both have unresolved issues. For the Tide, it's whether an offense that lost seven starters will respond effectively. Meanwhile, the Hokies have injuries galore at running back. Both of these teams have a chance to be great - BCS title great - in 2009. But for whoever loses Saturday night, that chance is most likely all but gone.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Alabama 20
Upset Special of the Week:
Baylor at Wake Forest (Sat. 3:30 EST)
No, this isn't that big of an upset. The Deacons are only five-point favorites at home, after all. But this is a key game because I expect the Bears to beat Wake handily - I'm talking two touchdowns-plus handily. Baylor has all the pieces to have a breakout season, and this road win will be the Bears' coming-out party.
Prediction: Baylor 34, Wake Forest: 17
For Your Viewing Pleasure (Other Notable Televised Games):
Navy at #6 Ohio State (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN): Ohio State 38, Navy 20
Minnesota at Syracuse (Sat. Noon EST, ESPN2): Minnesota 27, Syracuse 19
Nevada at #23 Notre Dame (Sat. 3:30 EST, NBC): Notre Dame 27, Nevada 24
Western Michigan at Michigan (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC): Michigan 24, Western Michigan 17
Missouri at Illinois (Sat. 3:40 EST, ESPN): Illinois 33, Missouri 31
Maryland at #12 California (10:00 EST, ESPN2): Cal 42, Maryland 16
#11 LSU at Washington (Sat. 10:30 EST, ESPN): LSU 38, Washington 17
Ole Miss at Memphis (Sun. 3:30 EST, ESPN): Ole Miss 30, Memphis 14
Cincinnati at Rutgers (Mon. 4:00 EST, ESPN): Rutgers 21, Cincinnati 7
Miami at #18 Florida State (Mon. 8:00 EST, ESPN): FSU 28, Miami 16
Heisman Hunt (Player Performance to Watch):
Jahvid Best (RB - Cal): Best will launch his Heisman candidacy Saturday (10:00 EST, ESPN2) against a Maryland team that ranked 71st in the country last season against the run. Best was held to just 90 total yards in last season's 35-27 loss at Maryland. Both the Bears and Best will be looking for revenge this weekend.
Enjoy opening weekend, college football fans...
Friday, August 28, 2009
College Football Predictions: SEC
I know you don't want to hear about the Florida Gators anymore.
I know you're sick of "Tim Tebow Saves the World" documentaries. I know you're going to roll your eyes and yawn when you see the predictions below.
And you know what? I don't blame you. I fell asleep a few times writing them. Seriously.
That's because the Gators have gotten more love recently from the national media than Brett Favre's facial hair, and that's saying something. With all of the "experts" predicting Florida dominance in 2009, you'd think the BCS had already Fed-Ex'd the trophy to Gainesville.
But... that's why they play the game, right? And if you think that's just an old cliche, you might want to check with the 1999 Tennessee Volunteers, the 2002 Miami Hurricanes, the 2003 Ohio State Buckeyes or the 2005 USC Trojans.
All of those teams were pegged as favorites to repeat as BCS champions. None of them did.
So what makes me (and every other non-Big 12 writer in America, apparently) think the Gators will become the first team to repeat as BCS champion?
No, it's not Tim Tebow. No, it's not Urban Meyer. No, it's not even a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
It's the schedule.
Sure, the SEC is brutal. And as the loss last season to Ole Miss can attest, even the mighty Gators are capable of a letdown.
But outside of a trip to LSU on Oct. 10, every game on the Gators' schedule is very, very winnable. Georgia is always tough, but the Gators crushed them 49-10 last year (and that was when the Bulldogs still had Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno).
And the two next-best teams in the Conference, Alabama and Ole Miss, aren't on the schedule at all.
If Florida wins against LSU, they should cruise into the SEC championship game. And there are plenty of reasons to believe they will take care of business there, as well as in an eventual BCS title game.
Reasons like: Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer and a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
But you already knew that, right?
SEC:
Player of the Year: Jevan Snead... No, no, just kidding. Tim Tebow (QB - Fla.)
Offensive Player of the Year: Jevan Snead (QB - Miss.) I'm serious this time.
Defensive Player of the Year: Eric Berry (DE - Tenn.)
East:
1. Florida - (Yawn) You've probably heard all about the Gators' strengths, so let's talk about the potential weaknesses Florida in '09. It starts with an offensive line that loses both tackles and a guard. Remember how Tebow got stuffed late in the loss to Ole Miss last season? Also, Florida loses star WR Percy Harvin. There's still plenty of talent at the position, but none are the play-maker Harvin was. Also, the Gators could have a bit of a dilemma with several defensive back-ups who may be pushing starters for playing time throughout the season. Do any of these things really matter? Probably not.
Overall: 12-0, Conference: 8-0
2. Georgia - The hype was so big for the Bulldogs heading into 2008, you almost had to feel a letdown coming. Sure enough, Mark Richt's squad lost three games and finished the season far removed from the national championship discussion. But, outside of the dismantling loss to Florida, the Dogs' losses were hardly bad (Alabama and Georgia Tech). In fact, if Stafford and Moreno would have returned, this team may have gotten some votes to top Florida in the SEC East. But instead, Joe Cox takes over behind center and Caleb King is expected to get most of the carries at RB (though a recent injury could change that). But the bigger question mark is a defense that allowed 30+ points on five occasions last season.
9-3 (6-2)
3. South Carolina - If only Steve Spurrier's team could finish. After losing its final five games in 2007 to miss the bowl season, South Carolina lost its last three in 2008, including a 31-10 defeat against Iowa in the Outback Bowl. The result has been pretty good seasons turned quickly into disappointments. The reality is, until Spurrier finds a solid QB, the Gamecocks are probably destine for mediocrity. Perhaps Stephen Garcia will eventually be that man, although six TD's and eight INT's in 2008 doesn't exactly scream Danny Wuerffel or anything...
6-6 (4-4)
4. Vanderbilt - Well that was fun while it lasted. The Commodores sprinted out of the gate in 2008, winning their first five games and earning a Top 25 ranking. After that, Vandy couldn't buy a win, losing five of six games by less than two TD's. The Commodores return 17 starters this season, and there is reason to believe they can turn at least a couple of those losses into wins. The season will likely hinge on QB play, as Larry Smith and Mackenzi Adams are expected to both get significant snaps. If they perform, Vandy is a sleeper.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Kentucky - Rich Brooks does have reasons for optimism heading into 2009. First, he returns nine offensive starters, including play-making WR Randall Cobb. Secondly, his defense, which ranked sixth in the SEC last season, allowing 22.4 points per game, returns LB Michah Johnson and CB Trevard Lindley. But questions still surround QB Mike Hartline, who simply has to put up more consistent passing numbers for the Wildcats to compete in this conference.
6-6 (2-6)
6. Tennessee - What? Tennesse got a new coach this offseason? Really? Must have missed that. I'm starting to wonder if maybe Al Davis wasn't the crazy (or craziest) one in the feud between himself and new Vols coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin spent the off-season making headlines for all the wrong reasons. He will spend the season wishing DB Eric Berry could play all 22 positions on the field. Because other than Berry, Tennessee is young, inexperienced and unproven. Kind of like their new coach.
6-6 (2-6)
11-1 (7-1)
2. Alabama - Nick Saban will undoubtedly have one of the nation's best defenses in 2009. Players like LB Rolondo McClain and DT Terrence Cody are going to be playing on Sunday in a year or two. But it's hard to forget what happened to the Tide's offensive line in the Sugar Bowl. Utah dominated the 'Bama line, making J.P. Wilson's night one to forget. Now that line loses three starters, and a new QB takes over in Greg McElroy. Could the defense be good enough alone to keep the Tide in the SEC title hunt? Yes. But, man, Utah just destroyed that line...
10-2 (7-1)
3. LSU - Mark your calendars for Oct. 10, boys and girls. That's when Florida comes to Baton Rouge. The Tigers, on paper anyway, have the best shot at derailing the Gators' run at an undefeated season in 2009. But we shouldn't forget the Gators' 30-point drubbing of LSU in Gainesville last season. So, have the Tigers improved enough to win that game, as well as more than the eight total they won in 2008? The answer is...maybe. There is a ton of talent on offense and in the linebacking corps, but only one starter returns to the defensive line. Oh, and there's that whole QB situation, too.
9-3 (5-3)
4. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ranked fourth in the SEC in offensive yards per game last season. They ranked last in yards allowed per game. That's going to be a problem. It may simply be a question of whether the Arkansas offense can score enough points to make the poor defense a non-issue. Sr. RB Michael Smith and All-SEC TE D.J. Williams will do their best, but can they get some help out there, D?
6-6 (2-6)
5. Auburn - Boy, I'd be pumped if I was a Tigers fan. Heck, you got rid of that lame coach Tommy Tuberville, who won just 85 games and an SEC title in his 10 years at Auburn, and replaced him with Gene Chizik, who won a whopping five games in two years at Iowa State! That's right, Iowa State: the Iowa of central Iowa! Okay, maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic, but I will never understand this coaching move. Unless, of course, the Tigers win the SEC West this year or something.
5-7 (1-7)
6. Mississippi State - As bad as the Chizik hire looks at Auburn is as good as the Dan Mullen hiring looks at Miss. St. The Bulldogs have to find some offense, and Mullen, who helped create Florida's scoring machine, is the right guy to take a shot at it. RB Anthony Dixon has shown promise, ranking fifth in rushing in the SEC last season. The defense should be decent, though it needs to improve against the run (74th in the country last season). It may take a few years, but expect Mullen to get this program headed in the right direction.
4-8 (1-7)
I know you're sick of "Tim Tebow Saves the World" documentaries. I know you're going to roll your eyes and yawn when you see the predictions below.
And you know what? I don't blame you. I fell asleep a few times writing them. Seriously.
That's because the Gators have gotten more love recently from the national media than Brett Favre's facial hair, and that's saying something. With all of the "experts" predicting Florida dominance in 2009, you'd think the BCS had already Fed-Ex'd the trophy to Gainesville.
But... that's why they play the game, right? And if you think that's just an old cliche, you might want to check with the 1999 Tennessee Volunteers, the 2002 Miami Hurricanes, the 2003 Ohio State Buckeyes or the 2005 USC Trojans.
All of those teams were pegged as favorites to repeat as BCS champions. None of them did.
So what makes me (and every other non-Big 12 writer in America, apparently) think the Gators will become the first team to repeat as BCS champion?
No, it's not Tim Tebow. No, it's not Urban Meyer. No, it's not even a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
It's the schedule.
Sure, the SEC is brutal. And as the loss last season to Ole Miss can attest, even the mighty Gators are capable of a letdown.
But outside of a trip to LSU on Oct. 10, every game on the Gators' schedule is very, very winnable. Georgia is always tough, but the Gators crushed them 49-10 last year (and that was when the Bulldogs still had Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno).
And the two next-best teams in the Conference, Alabama and Ole Miss, aren't on the schedule at all.
If Florida wins against LSU, they should cruise into the SEC championship game. And there are plenty of reasons to believe they will take care of business there, as well as in an eventual BCS title game.
Reasons like: Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer and a staunch defense that returns all of its starters.
But you already knew that, right?
SEC:
Player of the Year: Jevan Snead... No, no, just kidding. Tim Tebow (QB - Fla.)
Offensive Player of the Year: Jevan Snead (QB - Miss.) I'm serious this time.
Defensive Player of the Year: Eric Berry (DE - Tenn.)
East:
1. Florida - (Yawn) You've probably heard all about the Gators' strengths, so let's talk about the potential weaknesses Florida in '09. It starts with an offensive line that loses both tackles and a guard. Remember how Tebow got stuffed late in the loss to Ole Miss last season? Also, Florida loses star WR Percy Harvin. There's still plenty of talent at the position, but none are the play-maker Harvin was. Also, the Gators could have a bit of a dilemma with several defensive back-ups who may be pushing starters for playing time throughout the season. Do any of these things really matter? Probably not.
Overall: 12-0, Conference: 8-0
2. Georgia - The hype was so big for the Bulldogs heading into 2008, you almost had to feel a letdown coming. Sure enough, Mark Richt's squad lost three games and finished the season far removed from the national championship discussion. But, outside of the dismantling loss to Florida, the Dogs' losses were hardly bad (Alabama and Georgia Tech). In fact, if Stafford and Moreno would have returned, this team may have gotten some votes to top Florida in the SEC East. But instead, Joe Cox takes over behind center and Caleb King is expected to get most of the carries at RB (though a recent injury could change that). But the bigger question mark is a defense that allowed 30+ points on five occasions last season.
9-3 (6-2)
3. South Carolina - If only Steve Spurrier's team could finish. After losing its final five games in 2007 to miss the bowl season, South Carolina lost its last three in 2008, including a 31-10 defeat against Iowa in the Outback Bowl. The result has been pretty good seasons turned quickly into disappointments. The reality is, until Spurrier finds a solid QB, the Gamecocks are probably destine for mediocrity. Perhaps Stephen Garcia will eventually be that man, although six TD's and eight INT's in 2008 doesn't exactly scream Danny Wuerffel or anything...
6-6 (4-4)
4. Vanderbilt - Well that was fun while it lasted. The Commodores sprinted out of the gate in 2008, winning their first five games and earning a Top 25 ranking. After that, Vandy couldn't buy a win, losing five of six games by less than two TD's. The Commodores return 17 starters this season, and there is reason to believe they can turn at least a couple of those losses into wins. The season will likely hinge on QB play, as Larry Smith and Mackenzi Adams are expected to both get significant snaps. If they perform, Vandy is a sleeper.
6-6 (3-5)
5. Kentucky - Rich Brooks does have reasons for optimism heading into 2009. First, he returns nine offensive starters, including play-making WR Randall Cobb. Secondly, his defense, which ranked sixth in the SEC last season, allowing 22.4 points per game, returns LB Michah Johnson and CB Trevard Lindley. But questions still surround QB Mike Hartline, who simply has to put up more consistent passing numbers for the Wildcats to compete in this conference.
6-6 (2-6)
6. Tennessee - What? Tennesse got a new coach this offseason? Really? Must have missed that. I'm starting to wonder if maybe Al Davis wasn't the crazy (or craziest) one in the feud between himself and new Vols coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin spent the off-season making headlines for all the wrong reasons. He will spend the season wishing DB Eric Berry could play all 22 positions on the field. Because other than Berry, Tennessee is young, inexperienced and unproven. Kind of like their new coach.
6-6 (2-6)
West:
1. Ole Miss - Yep, hand over the Kool Aid. I love the Rebels this year. Go ahead and call this pick "bandwagon-jumping" or "a giant Houston Nutt man-crush." The latter may be true, but tell me this: If I gave you a team that has its league's best (passing) QB, its fourth-ranked defense from a season ago, and told you this team was the only one to beat the national champion a year ago, would you say that team is pretty darn good? Sure you would. The Rebels lost all three SEC games last year by a total of just 17 points, and they got better as the season went on, winning their final six. Even if you want to throw out the Florida game as a fluke, beating Texas Tech 47-34 in the Cotton Bowl showed this team is for real. And the best part? The Rebels get both Alabama and LSU at home in '09.11-1 (7-1)
2. Alabama - Nick Saban will undoubtedly have one of the nation's best defenses in 2009. Players like LB Rolondo McClain and DT Terrence Cody are going to be playing on Sunday in a year or two. But it's hard to forget what happened to the Tide's offensive line in the Sugar Bowl. Utah dominated the 'Bama line, making J.P. Wilson's night one to forget. Now that line loses three starters, and a new QB takes over in Greg McElroy. Could the defense be good enough alone to keep the Tide in the SEC title hunt? Yes. But, man, Utah just destroyed that line...
10-2 (7-1)
3. LSU - Mark your calendars for Oct. 10, boys and girls. That's when Florida comes to Baton Rouge. The Tigers, on paper anyway, have the best shot at derailing the Gators' run at an undefeated season in 2009. But we shouldn't forget the Gators' 30-point drubbing of LSU in Gainesville last season. So, have the Tigers improved enough to win that game, as well as more than the eight total they won in 2008? The answer is...maybe. There is a ton of talent on offense and in the linebacking corps, but only one starter returns to the defensive line. Oh, and there's that whole QB situation, too.
9-3 (5-3)
4. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ranked fourth in the SEC in offensive yards per game last season. They ranked last in yards allowed per game. That's going to be a problem. It may simply be a question of whether the Arkansas offense can score enough points to make the poor defense a non-issue. Sr. RB Michael Smith and All-SEC TE D.J. Williams will do their best, but can they get some help out there, D?
6-6 (2-6)
5. Auburn - Boy, I'd be pumped if I was a Tigers fan. Heck, you got rid of that lame coach Tommy Tuberville, who won just 85 games and an SEC title in his 10 years at Auburn, and replaced him with Gene Chizik, who won a whopping five games in two years at Iowa State! That's right, Iowa State: the Iowa of central Iowa! Okay, maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic, but I will never understand this coaching move. Unless, of course, the Tigers win the SEC West this year or something.
5-7 (1-7)
6. Mississippi State - As bad as the Chizik hire looks at Auburn is as good as the Dan Mullen hiring looks at Miss. St. The Bulldogs have to find some offense, and Mullen, who helped create Florida's scoring machine, is the right guy to take a shot at it. RB Anthony Dixon has shown promise, ranking fifth in rushing in the SEC last season. The defense should be decent, though it needs to improve against the run (74th in the country last season). It may take a few years, but expect Mullen to get this program headed in the right direction.
4-8 (1-7)
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