I really want to root for the Saints this Sunday.
How could I not? They've got a blue-collar, likable quarterback in Drew Brees.
They have a (truly) rags-to-riches story - the city of New Orleans needs a Super Bowl title worse than probably any other NFL hub.
They are the most entertaining team to watch since Kurt Warner's "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams.
I really do want the Saints to win.
But they won't.
And the person I have to blame for bringing me to this sad but true realization is my friend Mike Donovan.
Just days following the Saints' victory over the Vikings in the NFC championship, Mike pointed out that the Saints seemed to have
gone into party mode.
For example, the day after their historic win, interviews with players revealed a team that had celebrated the night before like they had just won the Super Bowl, not simply made it there.
And who could blame them, right? New Orleans had never been to the big game before. And now here they were, on the shoulders of a talented and easy-to-root-for team, headed to Miami to play for sports' biggest crown.
It was a celebration long overdue, and the Saints (understandably) were not going to miss their opportunity.
But the Indianapolis Colts' reaction to their second AFC title in four years could not have been any different. They seemed business-like, calm and immediately focused on the next task at hand.
Do you think Peyton Manning went out and partied all night in Indianapolis after the team got past the New York Jets?
No, though Manning probably was up all night -
watching film.
And it's likely that most of the Colts players were already turning their focus to the Saints, instead of relishing the accomplishment of simply getting there.
The Colts mantra has seems to be: been there, done that.
Meanwhile, the Saints appear to be the "happy to be there" team. They've been craving a Super Bowl so long, that just getting there might seem almost as significant as actually winning the game.
And, as he usually does, my friend Mike found copious amounts of statistics to back up his point.
He researched all of the Happy To Be There (HTBT) teams to play in the Super Bowl in the last 30 years. "HTBT" is loosely defined as a team that had either never been to a Super Bowl or had made it following an extended drought.
Below are the statistics Mike found from such games. Teams in bold are the "Happy To Be There" teams. Following the teams/scores is the result of the game for HTBT team, as well as whether the HTBT team covered the final Las Vegas point spread.
Take a look:
Happy to be there Super Bowls since 1980 (HTBT in Bold):2009- Steelers (-7) 27, Cardinals 23 Loss, Cover
2006- Steelers (-4) 21, Seahawks 10 Loss, No cover
2004- Patriots (-7) 32, Panthers 29 Loss, Cover
2003- Buccaneers (+4) 48, Raiders 21 Both teams happy to be there
2002- Patriots (+14) 20, Rams 17 Win, Cover
2000- Rams (-7) 23, Titans 16 Both teams happy to be there
1999- Broncos (-4.5) 34, Falcons 19 Loss, No cover
1997- Packers (-14.5) 35, Patriots 21 Loss, Cover
1996- Cowboys (-13.5) 27, Steelers 17 Loss, Cover
1995- 49ers (-18.5) 49, Chargers 26 Loss, no cover
1989- 49ers (-7) 20, Bengals 16 Loss, Cover
1987- Giants (-9.5) 39, Broncos 20 Loss, No cover
1986- Bears (-10) 46, Patriots 10 Loss, no cover
1982- 49ers (-1) 26, Bengals 21 Both teams happy to be there
1981- Raiders (+3) 27, Eagles 10 Loss, No cover
1980- Steelers (-11.5) 31, Rams 19 Loss, No cover
Totals:
- HTBT Teams are 4-15 overall and 1-12 against non-HTBT teams.
- All 13 games against non-HTBT teams came against opponents who had won a Super Bowl in the previous five years.
- HTBT Teams are 6-7 Against the Spread (ATS), however, 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
So, history tells us that HTBT teams struggle mightily against non-HTBT teams in the Super Bowl, especially when the non-HTBT team has recently won a title themselves (like this year's Colts).
However, the trend is that HTBT teams do keep the games close, covering the spread in six of the last nine Super Bowls.
So, what does all of this mean? I'll tell you:
Colts 34, Saints 31It will be close. It will be high-scoring. It will be a great game.
But in the end, the Colts will be more prepared, more focused and (as strange as it sounds) more motivated.
Because, if answering honestly, I'm not sure any of the Saints players would tell you that losing Super Bowl XLIV would make the 2009-10 season a disappointment.
But for a guy like Peyton Manning, anything less than another Super Bowl title equals complete failure.
The Saints are just happy to be there. Which is exactly why they won't be the happy ones Sunday night in Miami.
*Note: All stats provided by Mike Donovan, sports researcher extraordinaire, February, 2010
